By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.
The rail is out 3m and the form has been done for a heavy track.
|Race 1 - 12:30PM IRRESISTIBLE POOLS & SPAS DARBY MUNRO STAKES (1200 METRES)|
9. Andermatt goes in on top at the each way price in a race with half a dozen genuine winning chances. This Snitzel colt was no match for Wild Ruler a fortnight ago at Randwick but that’s a strong reference point given Wild Ruler is one of the market elects for the G1 Galaxy. That latest effort was on a good track where he perhaps didn’t let down like he has in the past. His two previous runs were on wet tracks. First up where he reeled in subsequent winner Vulpine while at his last start as a two year old he took ground off Anders over the Rosehill 1100m on a Heavy 8. Has the tactical speed to come across and race handy and the two runs under his belt give him an advantage over a couple of his key rivals.
Dangers: 1. Prague peaked on his run first up at Randwick before running fourth in a largely on speed dominated G1 Newmarket. Handled a heavy track to run second in the Sires as a two-year-old. This is a mini D-Day for 2. Doubtland. He is undefeated on wet tracks but hasn’t fired a shot in four runs on dry tracks. If he is just a wet tracker, he needs to stand up. 5. Isotope is an exceptionally talented filly and the way she won the Gold Edition two back was breathtaking. That was prior to nearly falling in the Magic Millions Guineas. Assume the tactics are to take hold from the wide draw? That hurts her chances. 4. Private Eye has an equally impressive strike rate. This is harder again but he doesn’t looked to have reached his ceiling yet. 10. Tommy Gold the knockout.
How to play it: Andermatt EACH WAY ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Andermatt last start behind Wild Ruler
|Race 2 - 1:10PM XXXX N E MANION CUP (2400 METRES)|
5. Collide got more than a pass mark on his Australian debut first up over 2000m on a firm track. It was more of a sit-sprint shape which couldn’t have helped the Kris Lees-trained stayer but he wasn’t left flatfooted and did his best work late. We’ll get more of a guide on his Sydney Cup prospects after Saturday but tipping he’ll improve sharply off that fitness-wise and getting out to 2400m on his preferred wet track, this race suits. The import’s best overseas form was all on soft (and synthetic) ground. The six-year-old shouldn’t be too far away from a low draw either. Mugatoo fought out the finish with Young Rascal last year while Big Duke won it for him back in 2017. It’s a race Lees has targeted in the past.
Dangers: Speaking of Young Rascal, 11. Favourite Moon is the travelling companion for Addeybb this year and although he doesn’t bring the same Group form as his former stablemate, he has more upside. Hence he carries just 53kg. Off his UK form this international will stay and stay and stay. There was a lot to like about the second up run of 12. Realm Of Flowers over 2000m given her staying prowess. She is one paced so Damien Thornton will need to be on his bike early from back in the field.7. Dadoozdart had every possible chance in the Canberra Cup but he’s hard fit and handles the wet. He also gets a 3kg swing on 4. Sacramento , who is flying, but looks some risk on heavy ground.
How to play it: Collide WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Collide’s first Australian run
|Race 3 - 1:45PM TAB BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES (1200 METRES)|
4. Written Beauty was run off her feet in the Challenge Stakes last start when heavily backed. She’s worth another chance back to a Group Three mares race with 55kg, just 2kg above the minimum. Eduardo and Nature Strip went toe-to-toe at Randwick and not only broke the 1000m track record, they obliterated it by three lengths. First up she raced wide and keen yet still go the job done at very skinny odds. How she’ll handle a heavy track is somewhat unknown. She got through a Heavy 8 well enough on debut when second to The Drinks Cart at the Gold Coast, the wettest track she has raced on since was a Soft 5 at Flemington. Has to stretch her brilliance to 1200m but that doesn’t look too much of a concern.
Dangers: 5. Seasons was driving to the line behind 2. Vulpine last start and with 3. Every Rose applying plenty of pressure up front, that’s key to her turning the tables. The knock is where she gets to from the wide draw. Handles the wet though and second up last preparation she should have finished a close up second to Haut Brion Her. 13. Emanate started odds on in the Vulpine race but didn’t show the same zip as she did the start prior. Maybe she’s better with the sting out. That said, her one heavy track run wasn’t great. Victorian 14. I Am Eloquent has the runs on the board when it comes to wet form, as does 15. Fanciful Dream but 1200m might be a touch too far.
How to play it: Written Beauty WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Written Beauty last start
|Race 4 - 2:25PM RANVET STAKES (2000 METRES)|
As it stands, 1. Addeybb holds a 2-0 verdict over 4. Verry Elleegant. So what’s changed in the past 12 months for Verry Elleegant to turn the tables? She has arguably returned a more mature racehorse with her tendency to overrace now a thing of the past and is perhaps a shade tougher but since we last saw Addeybb he ran second in the G1 Prince Of Wales before winning the Listed Doonside Cup and then the G1 Champion Stakes, a lead up race he’d run second in before he won the Ranvet last year, turning the tables on brilliant Irish mare Magical. It wouldn’t be a stretch to conclude that Addeybb returns an even better horse than last time. We know his prowess on wet tracks too. Tom Marquand will bounce him out to lead this field, crank up the tempo turning for him and let his class shine.
Dangers: James McDonald never let Addeybb out of his sights in the Ranvet last year on Verry Elleegant, sitting outside of the lead. Expect the same tactics setting up another mouth-watering clash. She simply refused to lose the Chipping Norton last start, making it Group One number six. She might be Australia’s best wet tracker, it’s just unfortunate she is up against the world’s best wet tracker! 2. Master Of Wine did enough first up in the Chipping Norton from well back and won the Sky High on a heavy track second up last autumn before producing a huge effort in the Queen Elizabeth behind Addeybb after he was posted wide the trip.
How to play it: Addeybb WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in last year’s Ranvet
|Race 5 - 3:05PM SKY RACING ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000 METRES)|
The two factors that tip the scales 11. Montefilia’s way from a tipping perspective are the price and that she will handle the heavy track. Last spring’s Champion Stakes winner, where she started $2.70 favourite and beat Lion’s Roar, did enough in the G1 Surround Stakes first up. Forbidden Love demolished her rivals but Punters Intelligence reveals that Montefilia had the second quickest last 200m in the race. She was only getting warm through the line. It was when she got out to the mile and further last campaign that she came into her own. The knock is jumping 1400m straight to 2000m on what’s sure to be a testing wet track. David Payne will have poured the work into her to have her ready as she can be but it is worth noting that this isn’t her autumn grand final.
Dangers: 3. Mo’unga has had the extra run under his belt, where he should have won the Randwick Guineas if not for traffic problems and this has been his autumn grand final all preparation. He won on a heavy 10 at the Gold Coast on debut, however, the five maiden gallopers he beat have collectively had 35 starts since, and are all still maidens! The time was by far the slowest of the four 1400m races run on that meeting too. That’s not to say he won’t handle the track on Saturday but it’s not a given that he will. Lion’s Roar made a long sustained sprint to win the Randwick Guineas. 2. Lunar Fox is hard fit coming out of a brutally run All Star Mile last Saturday while 8. Sky Lab and 6. Khoekhoe can place.
How to play it: Montefilia EACH WAY ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Montefilia winning the Spring Champion Stakes
|Race 6 - 3:45PM THE AGENCY GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500 METRES)|
If 2. Avilius is ever going to win another race, surely it’s this one. The seven-year-old hasn’t won in 19 months, winning the 2019 George Main Stakes, but his first up run behind Verry Elleegant and Colette was a beauty. He loomed to win half way down the straight before peaking on his run. Punters Intelligence’s sectionals back that up too, with his 400-200 of 11.09s the quickest the race. His last 600m of 34.30s also ranked number one. In the defence of Avilius, in his 14 starts since last winning, he has only raced on a track worse than a Soft 7 on one occasion, where he ran third in the G1 Tancred. In his two runs on heavy tracks in Australia, albeit two years ago, he gave his rivals a touch up. No excuses now, Avilius.
Dangers: 11. Funstar continues to race well without winning. There was only 0.4 of a length between her, 1. Kolding and Avilius last start. In her favour is the ability to take up a spot and she has handled wet tracks well in the past, the one blemish her most recent run in a Heavy 9 in the Golden Eagle. 10. Arcadia Queen is the highest rated runner in the field and would be a clear favourite if this was a dry track. It isn’t though so the leap of faith is that she handles a heavy track. Is there enough evidence to 100% say that she won’t? 5. Gem Song falls into a similar bucket. Has failed on heavy going once in the past but he has never raced better and his form warrants a crack at weight for age level.
How to play it: Avilius WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Avilius first up in the Chipping Norton
|Race 7 - 4:30PM LONGINES GOLDEN SLIPPER [GROUP 1] (1200 METRES)|
8. Stay Inside sets up perfectly. He has tactical speed, draws low, is proven on a wet track and has had a faultless preparation. The Richard and Michael Freedman-trained colt won brilliantly two starts ago in the Pierro Plate, stalking the speed before accelerating through the Soft 7 conditions to put a gap on his rivals. He didn’t beat much but he won by four lengths eased down, relishing the juice in the track. He was then forced back from the awkward draw in the Todman Stakes a fortnight ago and couldn’t force clear in the straight. Like the way he closed when he finally saw daylight. Tommy Berry won’t have to complicate tactics as they look as simple as jumping on the back of 2. Profiteer. Expecting Stay Inside to produce a career best.
Dangers: Profiteer’s preparation also looks well timed. He never gave his rivals a chance in the Inglis Millennium blitzing the field with sustained speed. Last start in the Todman, Hugh Bowman took his foot off the gas at the 600m mark before sprinting again. He is unknown on heavy ground. 11. Four Moves Ahead has to improve off what she did in the Sweet Embrace to mix it with Stay Inside and Profiteer but she most certainly can given she was six weeks between runs off a couple of minor setbacks. 6. Home Affairs maps to get a cosy run and he measured up in the Todman a fortnight ago. The Blue Diamond trifecta 3. Artorius, 4. Ingratiating and 5. Anamoe all have claims but the barriers hurt. Historically it’s been very hard to settle back and sweep wide to win Golden Slippers on wet tracks. 10. O’President rates a mention.
How to play it: Stay Inside WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Stay Inside’s wet track win two starts ago
|Race 8 - 5:10PM BISLEY WORKWEAR GALAXY (1100 METRES)|
It’s an appealing scenario for 13. Tailleur with Godolphin taking full advantage of the handicap conditions. She carries just 51kg, has three runs under her belt, loves heavy ground and maps to stalk a hot speed. The four-year-old has never finished outside of the top two in her eight career runs and although she has never raced in Group One company, this race is tailor made for her to make that leap. Thought she was a tad disappointing last start, despite winning, at very short, odds, but the way she exploded when ridden off the speed the start prior is more an indication of what she is capable of. If she is ever going to match it with the likes of 1. Eduardo and 4. Haut Brion Her , it’s with Saturday’s set up.
Dangers: How do you knock a horse with Eduardo’s tenacity? He smashed the Randwick track record last start. The wet track plays into his hands too, it’s just whether he can lump 58kg. He’ll have plenty of company up front from right across the track. It’d be a surprise to no one if 4. Haut Brion Her took all before her this autumn on the back of proving herself to be one of the country’s elite sprinters. Has handled wet tracks in the past but a testing heavy track first up poses fitness queries. 11. Wild Ruler is a classy three-year-old still on the up and there is no evidence to suggest he won’t handle a wet track. He shares a very similar profile to 2017 Galaxy winner Russian Revolution. 8. Splintex gets a nice weight drop from the Challenge Stakes and the map looks kind to him.
How to play it: Tailleur WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Tailleur winning over the Rosehill 1100m
|Race 9 - 5:45PM ROADWORK SOLUTIONS EPONA STAKES (1900 METRES)|
7. She’s Ideel has been savaging the line this preparation. First up behind Subpoenaed and Madam Rouge in the G2 Millie Fox Stakes before backing that up in the G3 Aspiration out to the mile. The race wasn’t run to suit yet she still got with 0.1L of stealing it on the post. This is her fourth racing preparation and she has won third up twice already. She looks ready to win. The only query is how far back she will be forced to go from the wide draw. Perhaps that’ll be no disadvantage come the last race of the day, though. Monitor any patterns. Are they making ground? There’s no question that she handles wet tracks with her record 5:3-1-1 on soft and heavy going with her one heavy track run a fast finishing second to Costello at Rosehill over 2000m.
Dangers: 9. Attention Run flies fresh and she loves heavy ground. It’s a great scenario for her to produce her best, which would give a race like this a shake. She has resumed on heavy tracks in all three of her first up Australian wins, winning twice. Stalemate 4. Aliferous has won just three from 33 but she swims too. 5. Polly Grey showed last start she possesses tactical speed so that can offset another wide draw. The former Kiwi looks ready to win third up and the heavier the better for her as she has a Heavy 10 Matamata win already to her name. 13. Le Lude got strung up in behind runners last start. She has returned well while 14. Mahashakti boasts an exceptional winning strike rate as she cruises through the grades.
How to play it: She’s Ideel WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
She’s Ideel last start