Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The rail is out 6m with the track currently rated in the Good 3 range.
|Race 1 - 12:40PM ATC OWNERS BENEFIT CARD HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Lipizzan resumes for Gary Portelli and despite there being not much of her (tipping the scales at 420kg), this classy little filly is all heart. First up last campaign she ran second in a Listed race splitting Debonairly and I Am Excited. She subsequently won a few races and ran second to Champagne Cuddles. Both of her career wins have been on wet ground but she has a Listed second on a firm deck. Has trialled nicely and being slight in stature, comes to hand very quickly. Rachel King has a great association with the filly and she’ll make her own luck. Didn’t expect to be getting $6.50.
Danger: Sparky Lad was beaten less than a length by Goodfella the last time we saw him. Hasn’t been seen in the six weeks since but did win off the same break two back at Warwick Farm, albeit with a bridging trial in between. Keep him safe. Pretty Fast next best after demolishing a Newcastle field while Heliosphere will be doing his best work late.
How to play it: Lipizzan WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds)
Lipizzan’s Warwick Farm trial – Oct 24
|Race 2 - 1:20PM CHANDON S HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Have been waiting for the return of Sedanzer after she blitzed her rivals in a recent Randwick barrier trial. Rachel King pushed the button but loved her response to dash clear and put up a 5.5L gap. She was tested over the Oaks trip in Adelaide the last time we saw her but didn’t stay so forget that. She looks more a 1400-1600m type and has been trained that way by the Waterhouse and Bott stable who have stated that they have her very forward for this assignment. She beat Interlocuter and Up ‘N’ Rolling at Newcastle last campaign!
Danger: Slow Burn was a little flattered in a sit and sprint at Rosehill last start (running a slick 400-200m split of 10.89s from the front according to Punters’ Intel) but nevertheless, she won with a leg in the air. She is untried over 1400m but the tempo of the race looks to suit again and if it turns into another dash home, she’ll be hard to peg back. Siren’s Fury is due a change of fortune but her racing pattern is to blame for her poor strike rate.
How to play it: Sedanzer WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE on Slow Burn ($3)
Sedanzer Randwick trial blitz – October 31
|Race 3 - 1:55PM BOOHOO.COM HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Carzoff won by a flared nostril at Rosehill last start but there was more merit to the win than meets the eye. He was 1350m straight out to 1800m so you’d expect significant improvement again third up out to 2000m, given the way Chris Waller conditions his horses. The five-year-old import had previously run second in three of his four Australian outings so should also take some confidence out of the victory. Tactics will be interesting given he has drawn 8 in a race where his stablemate Lead Choreographer looks to get an uncontested lead. Tye Angland is riding in great form though and will back him to make his move at the right time.
Danger: Outside of Lead Choreographer, who maps to get every chance in the world, Impavido has finally drawn a barrier and shouldn’t be left with any excuses now having given his rivals too big of a start in his last few outings. Collateral to bounce back? Monitor the market confidence.
How to play it: Carzoff WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds)
Carzoff’s second up win at Rosehill
|Race 4 - 2:30PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Equal Balance was posted wide the trip when $2.60 favourite in a Highway Handicap last start. Punters' Intel reveals he still broke 12s home though and travelled 1207.9m in the run, bettered only by the last placed Arrondissement. We can safely forgive the run and judge him on his previous recent form which included a narrow second to the handy Grimoire and a dominant win over city winner Easy Eddie. The three-year-old is right up in the weights but the soft barrier should ensure a much kinder run in transit.
Danger: Danny Williams has won three of the past four Highway Handicaps and looks to saddle up the two main dangers to Equal Balance. She Knows clung on bravely to win a Highway the last time we saw her while particularly wary of the stablemate Volpe at double figure odds. He’ll be charging down the middle late.
How to play it: Equal Balance WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Equal Balance covering more ground than Burke and Wills
|Race 5 - 3:05PM NOVEMBER HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Testashadow is one of the most unassuming horses in Sydney but this million-dollar earner has recent form around some very good animals including McCreery and It’s Somewhat. He has won first up at his past two fresh outings and loves the 1400m trip (15:5-2-1). The Gary Portelli-trained six-year-old always trials well and this preparation was no different. He is a very capable horse and given he makes his own luck and is a fighter, he is well worth an each-way ticket at the odds on offer.
Danger: Cabeza De Vaca will be the horse Testashadow will be eye-balling in the run (with Red Excitement’s connections advising he’ll be ridden with cover) and won’t be easy to get past given his fantastic return a fortnight ago. Probably wants a mile now but the blinkers go on to somewhat alleviate that concern. Firsthand shapes like he’ll love 1400m.
How to play it: Testashadow EACH WAY ($9 TAB Fixed Odds)
Testashadow was Group Two placed last preparation
|Race 6 - 3:45PM NOVEMBER TOPAZ (1900 METRES)|
You can cut this race up any way you choose but it’s hard to make much of a case against Interlocuter. He quite comfortably accounted for Black On Gold last start, who has since won himself and beat many of the rivals here. Winning has very much become a habit for this five-year-old import and he only has to hold his form to bring up a hattrick. He’d be chasing six straight if it wasn’t for an upheld protest. Looks exceptionally well in with 56kg. Wins again at the short odds and probably jumps closer to $1.60.
Danger: Black On Gold looks the most obvious to pounce if Interlocuter is off his game. Got within a length of him two back before fighting off New Tipperary to win at Rosehill last start. The only runner that didn't have form that ties in through Interlocuter and Black On Gold was Slow Pace and he has been scratched.
How to play it: Interlocuter WIN ($1.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Interlocuter’s last start win over Black On Gold
|Race 7 - 4:20PM JAYDUB ELECTRICAL HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Progressive four-year-old Best Guess has the right form lines to be giving a race like this a big shake. First up he ran second to White Moss before winning well at Canterbury and then running third to Pomelo. There was a gap back to third there and liked his work across the line. Interesting that in his eight starts he has only been beyond 1100m once and he won by 3L. Drawn 1 he should get all the favours and with the two likely leaders scratched, expect Blake Shinn to hold a spot and take luck out of the equation. He’s fit and in form while most of his key rivals, at least according to the market, are tackling this first up.
Danger: Pelorus Jack has won his three starts by a combined margin of half a length! His first up run reads 7th but he was posted wide the trip and was only beaten 2.4L by Passage Of Time with Stonebrook running second and Wayanka finishing behind him. Pick Me Up was beaten 2L by Best Guess last start but looks ready to fire now third up.
How to play it: Best Guess WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Best Guess and Pick Me Up chasing home Pomelo
|Race 8 - 5:00PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Redouble nearly landed a plunge first up running second before the dreaded cardiac arrhythmia was to blame second up. He bounced straight back after that to win well last week at Rosehill and you often find that once these Bjorn Baker horses find their winning form they hold it. On the back up suggests he is thriving at the moment and although he rises 2kg tackling the same grade, this is certainly no harder. The wide draw will leave Rory Hutchings with a decision or two to make early but he has a fit horse underneath him which will give him a little more confidence to be positive.
Danger: Flow is suited kicking off over 1400m and has trialled well on two occasions. Expect Noble Joey to take up the running but there is a spot up for grabs sitting on his shoulder which Brenton Avdulla could take by spearing across from the wide barrier. Cosmic Engine won at Canterbury first up on the back of a ground saving Blake Shinn ride. Improves second up but will need to.
How to play it: Redouble WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Redouble winning at Rosehill last week
|Race 9 - 5:40PM BOXING DAY AT ROYAL RANDWICK SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
The 1100m is as short as Kinshachi wants but there is an abundance of speed engaged here through Coolring Tango Rain and Fickle Folly who have all drawn wide. Throw into the mix a second line of Kudero, Pomelo and Glenall and you’d be surprised if they don’t hum along. Kinshachi ran third in the Group Three Nivison first up and has been kept fresh since with a tickover trial – a recipe James Cummings uses with great success. Capable of charging home to nab the paddling leaders.
Danger: Tactical Advantage is another runner here that should be able to stalk the speed. Punters’ Intel reveals he peaked on his run noticeably first up (with late splits of 10.86, 11.02 and then 12.12) so let’s chalk it off to fitness and give him another chance. Drops 5kg and the blinkers go on. Glyn Schofield will just need to be careful he isn’t buried back on the fence. Pomelo next best. Happy to watch Glenall first up at the odds on offer.
How to play it: Kinshachi WIN ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and Tactical Advantage WIN ($5.50)
Watch how noticeably Tactical Advantage peaks at the 200m mark