By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 3m position and the form has been done for a Good track (we're now a Soft 5).
|Race 1 - 11:35AM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
5. Laughing Or Crying got all of the breaks last start to win a Highway Handicap but the still lightly-raced six-year-old did it well, holding off Jailbreak and Foxie La Belle, two proven Highway performers. He only rises 1.5kg after the claim of Jean Van Overmeire, who rode Laughing Or Crying last start, and we’re getting similar double figure odds. Prior to that he smoked to the line behind Miss Charlie at Wagga, a mare that has raced well since. Danny Williams has a very strong hand in this week’s Highway and although this gelding mightn’t be the top seed on potential, he is well seasoned for the bustle of this capacity field and looking at the early market, he appears to be the one that’s been underrated.
Dangers: Also trained by Williams, three-year-olds 10. Leg Work and 9. Shelby Sixtysix both recorded dominant wins over the Wagga carnival in heavy conditions. Thought Leg Work was the pick of the two wins but had the benefit of racing earlier in the meeting. Shelby Sixtysix is still in his first racing campaign but has a likeable racing style of settling on speed. Leg Work will drift back and flood home. Both are equally progressive. It’s an ugly barrier for 6. Shamusu Sho but Cody Morgan has him flying and he profiles as the most likely to trouble Williams’ army of chances. 3. Perfect Pitch found trouble behind Laughing Or Crying last time out but that’s now one win from 26 starts.
How to play it: How to play it: Laughing Or Crying EACH WAY ($14 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Laughing Or Crying winning a Highway last start
|Race 2 - 12:10PM SEGENHOE STUD BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
10. Harpo Marx was disappointing last start at Warwick Farm out to 2400m as an easing favourite but with 8. Re Edit tearing along in front he had to chase from a long way out and felt the pinch late. That should see him present at full fitness fourth up. Perhaps it’s all come a preparation too soon for the import that’s new to Bjorn Baker’s stable but being so lightly-raced and with such strong form lines from overseas, he ran a narrow second to Il Paradiso in Ireland 12 months ago, he’s worth another chance. The four-year-old son of Galileo (out of gun filly Nechita) rises slightly in grade but drops 4kg and with Tim Clark having ridden him in his last two starts, I wouldn’t expect to see him drop Harpo Marx out the back like last start. In a very open race, siding with the stayer with the most upside.
Dangers: 4. Kaapfever was hard in the market for the Wagga Cup but didn’t handle the conditions. The market has been too quick to discount him. 2. Fanciful Toff was no match for Too Close To The Sun last start but that horse has since won the Warnambool Cup, making it seven wins from his last 10 starts. Gets Hugh Bowman and has already won in Sydney, beating 9. Terwilliker who on that occasion had the luxury weight of 49kg. He could turn the tables without shocking though. 1. Costello was set for last Saturday’s Gosford Gold Cup over 2000m yet was balloted out. The back up option was the mile race but a float mishap meant he was a late scratching. Now he presents out to 2400m. That can’t be ideal. 3. Humbolt Current didn’t have any luck last start and is going better than his form suggests.
How to play it: Harpo Marx WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVEN
Harpo Marx last start at Warwick
|Race 3 - 12:45PM YARRAMAN PARK WOODLANDS STAKES (1100 METRES)|
8. Newsreader is a filly worth following as she creeps out in distance. Love the way she closed off on debut behind 1. Macroura and Wild Ruler. With a 1.5kg swing, an extra 100m and that race experience under her belt, she can certainly turn the tables. Punters Intelligence shows her last 600m of 33.52s ranked fourth quickest in the race but the closer they got to the line, the stronger she was with a race fastest last 200m of 11.59s. Her pedigree (by Press Statement out of a Thorn Park mare) screams miler in time but her talent will see her competitive over the shorter trips. From the middle draw and with Brenton Avdulla sticking, she’ll park just off midfield behind what looks a very genuine tempo. John O’Shea won this race with Pretty In Pink last year and has already said that this filly compares favourably to her.
Dangers: Macroura is hard to knock being two from two, drawing the inside peg and with James McDonald steering. Was impressed by the way 6. Bellevue Star found late to win at Canterbury last start, beating Elizabeel (subsequently third to Peltzer). Tim Clark was able to pinch a breather from the 600-400, a luxury she won’t get here with 9. Superbellaa likely to make the running, but the blinkers go on now and she’ll give cheek from on speed. 4. Marboosha won with arrogance at Warwick Farm last start but the prospect of a three deep trip is much more daunting at Rosehill as opposed to the Farm.
How to play it: Newsreader WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Read all about it!
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) May 14, 2020
|Race 4 - 1:20PM INGLIS 3YO GUINEAS (1400 METRES)|
Masked Crusader's scratching has turned this race upside down from a market and map perspective. 1. Dawn Passage annihilated his rivals in the Hawkesbury Guineas relishing the hot speed up front. He was three deep throughout but still posted a big winning margin. Won’t get the same level of pressure in this but if he can reproduce what he did last start, he should win again.
Dangers: 5. Rocha Clock bounced back to form second up with a quiet ride back in grade. She clocked an exceptional 11.08s for her last 200m, the quickest of the meeting and two lengths quicker than the next best in her race. The little asterisk is how potentially flattered she was finding the right part of the Kensington track. If the race turns into a 400m sprint home, she'll be the best suited. 3. Bandersnatch gets complete control in front now and is dangerous off a forgivable fist up effort when not suited by the way the Kenso played that day. Could this be the day for 2. True Detective?
How to play it: Dawn Passage WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
|Race 5 - 1:55PM VINERY STUD BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
3. Lashes lands a plumb draw here having been scratched from a wide gate last Saturday. The Matthew Smith-trained mare fronts up against the boys but in her two runs in BM78 grade last preparation she won by 2.8L and then 2L. They were explosive wins too. In the first of those she gave 9. Adelong a touch up. Adelong meets her a whopping 6kg better off but Lashes has proven in the past that she is a touch better than this grade. She was then stretched to 1200m in tougher company which found her out, one of those being a Group Three. With two trials under her belt the four-year-old looks well placed from the perfect draw. That’s the sealer, where she’ll be camped in the run, coiled up right in behind the speed.
Dangers: 5. Broken Arrows is a better horse than his record suggests and will be tearing home late. He beat Trumbull last preparation and towelled up Sheriff at Gosford. He is a four-year-old that needs the breaks but if they go his way, he can certainly win this. 1. Akasaki is rocks or diamonds but goes like a rocket fresh (6:3-1-2) and won this race last year (at Scone). Adelong can win but betting around her at the odds.
How to play it: Lashes WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Lashes and Broken Arrows trialling at Warwick Farm - April 27
|Race 6 - 2:35PM TAB LUSKIN STAR STAKES (1300 METRES)|
9. Eleven Eleven hasn’t really fired a shot in two runs back this campaign but he gets a lovely set up here against the older horses third up. First up the son of Fastnet Rock loomed into the Arrowfield but peaked on his run on the heavy track having had to go back from the wide draw. Then it was second up straight out to 1400m and another wide draw saw him drift back and never threaten in a very fast run race. Easy to say in hindsight of course but suspect he needed that run too, especially given he had the one 740m trial before kicking off his autumn. In his last two preparations, the deeper he went into his campaign the better he got. Just needs to find that form that saw him finish a couple of lengths off Alligator Blood. Maps to be in the first couple and get on speed favours. It’s time for the real Eleven Eleven to stand up and suspect he will.
Dangers: Looks only to be a handful of genuine winning chances with 1. Graff among them. Hugh Bowman jumps off to ride 3. Ranier but thought Graff did enough first up in the Hawkesbury Gold Rush. Kris Lees suggested there is plenty of improvement to come but he is winless from his past 11, and has finished within a length in seven of those starts. On that note, it’s been over two years since 4. Lanciato last saluted the judge. He has only had 11 starts in that time though given Mark Newnham races him on the fresh side. There was little between him and Ranier last start and Lanicato meets him 2kg better off. Phaistos and Dealmaker have since franked that form line. 10. Trumbull continues his run of awkward draws but he is going as well as ever despite his patchy form suggesting otherwise.
How to play it: Eleven Eleven WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Eleven Eleven finishing a long way off Dawn Dawn
|Race 7 - 3:15PM COOLMORE DENISE'S JOY STAKES (1100 METRES)|
5. Fituese belted her rivals first up over 1000m, confirming what he brilliant trial prior to that had hinted. That she has returned better than ever. Given the John Thompson-trained filly has already won four from six, that’s ominous for her rivals again second up. Rachel King showed so much confidence in the daughter of Deep Field to bounce her out from the wide draw and be content sitting deep in a fast run race. It didn’t matter as she exploded clear late with her ears pricked, clocking an 11.52s last 200m (Punters Intelligence). That was a length quicker than the next best, which was the runner up L’Cosmo, a filly that had come off a narrow second to subsequent dominant winner Dirty Work. Maps to get all of the in-run favours and profiles like she’ll be too good again.
Dangers: 10. L’Cosmo has strong form lines this time back through Dirty Work and Fituese but that’s now 10 placings from her 12 starts for just the one win. 12. Sally’s Day takes a giant leap from a Wyong BM64 first up into a Listed race but she is a talented filly and won there like a horse that’ll measure up in this. She had excuses second up last campaign when posted wide and was slow to recover. 4. Aquitaine won three on the bounce last preparation before narrowly going down to Splintex and then running third in Group company. Might need this run but has trialled exceptionally well and is still on the up too.
How to play it: Fituese WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"Which is ominous for her rivals as she continues to march through the grades."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) May 14, 2020
|Race 8 - 3:55PM EMIRATES PARK DARK JEWEL CLASSIC (1400 METRES)|
17. Asharani is flying at the moment and slips into this race largely unnoticed due to a luckless seventh on the Kensington track last start behind Phaistos. The four-year-old wasn’t fully clear until the 100m mark and like the way she attacked the line. That was her first run in blinkers. Prior to that she failed to fire on the heavy track in the Provincial Championships Final which you can out a pen through, having earned her spot in the field by beating the subsequent Final winner Through The Cracks. In her run prior to that she was narrowly beaten by Trumbull with Royal Celebration and So Taken well beaten back in third and fourth.
Dangers: 15. Strome was only beaten 2.5L when first up in the Hawkesbury Crown, drops 2kg from that and could bounce off that to improve sharply second up. 6. Bangkok was disappointing last start, no denying that, but her form prior to that was good for this. It could pay to forgive her one bad run where she started hard in the market. 5. Irithea was brave off a four week break last start. She is one dimensional but if James McDonald puts the foot to the floor from the wide draw, will give a big sight. 1. Amangiri is back 100m and up 4kg, albeit with Another Dollar franking her last start win. 12. Romani Girl also rates a mention as another with a chance at big odds.
How to play it: How to play it: Asharani WIN ($23 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Asharani was a luckless seventh last start
|Race 9 - 4:35PM ARROWFIELD ORTENSIA STAKES (1100 METRES)|
1. Bon Amis is a Rosehill 1100m specialist with a record of 9:5-2-0. The Jason Deamer-trained six-year-old pays for his consistency with a high rating which earns him 59kg but he draws beautifully to trail the speed and has Hugh Bowman in the saddle. First up last campaign he was aggressively placed in The Hunter over 1300m and after trailing a hot speed set by all the way winner Savatiano he was brave to finish third. That effort looked to take its toll thereafter as the gelding raced below his best. Deprive nabbed him on the line in his first up run two preparations ago on a heavy track. The Bon Hoffa gelding is a proven weight carrier and on the back of a forgivable last campaign, looks worth the gamble at the odds to bounce back to his best.
Dangers: 9. Prophet’s Thumb is an explosive mare when everything falls into place. She’ll get back and be sweeping widest. She kept chasing at Caulfield last start lumping 61.5kg, now with Anthony Freedman, and drops to 54kg for this. 12. Dirty Work has fallen a touch short in Group and Listed level in the past but deserves another crack. Just needs to transfer his Kenso form. 3. Villami rises to 57kg despite being a three-year-old filly which looks a big task. She’ll give a sight though. 4. God Of Thunder meets Villami on equal terms and only has a 0.1L margin to turnaround on last start. 8. Noble Boy has trialled well ahead of his return for his new stable while 11. Star Boy is suited back to 1100m (6:1-5-0) having not finished too far away from Snitz last start.
How to play it: Bon Amis EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Bon Amis in The Hunter