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Rosehill Winners - Tips For Saturday 16th March

By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Saturday’s meeting at Rosehill Gardens.

The rail is in the True, all eyes on the skies with rain forecast and the first set to go at 1pm.

Race 1 - 1:00PM CATANACH'S HANDICAP (1350 METRES)

The big flag with 4. You Make Me Smile is that he started $3 favourite in a Group Three last start – here he is back to BM88 grade. So why isn’t he favourite? He should be. The four-year-old has never raced better. He has finally worked out how to harness his speed. That saw him win three on the bounce before Jason Coyle tested him in group company last start and although he ran fourth, he certainly wasn’t completely out of his depth. He just got a touch keen early. Convinced that was due to him drawing 1 and having to be driven out to hold the fence. Dreamforce didn’t help his cause, punching up with him. No such dramas here drawn out. He gets first crack at the track, is rock hard fit, makes his own luck and he is a swimmer.

Dangers: 9. Star Of The Seas looks dangerously weighted down on 52.5kg with Kerrin McEvoy riding. He zoomed to the line (with 58.5kg) first up over 1000m before running over 1350m second up (with 57kg). He chased home talented type Archedemus in the latter. No excuses fitness-wise now third up. 8. Safado got the job done at Hakwesbury to qualify for the Provincial Championship final. Surprised he is so short here but is not without a hope. Don’t think 5. Paret or 1. Don’t Give A Damn are wet trackers.

How to play it: You Make Me Smile WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)

Race 2 - 1:40PM CANADIAN CLUB MAURICE MCCARTEN STAKES (1100 METRES)

7. All Over Bosanova was too slippery for her rivals at Canberra back to 1000m last start. It was a brilliant display of sustained speed. She is well into her campaign so that’ll be her best asset against this field, and her proven ability in the wet ground. We saw her three runs back on a Soft 7 at Rosehill where she was collared late by All Too Royal and Maximus. That was only second up and over 1200m. A few of these up the top of this field certainly have more class than her, as the benchmark ratings suggest, but she catches them at the right time. She won’t get it all her own way in front with 3. Fiery Heights shooting up her inside but so often you see the leaders over the Rosehill 1100m just keep on running giving nothing else a chance. At the odds, happy to gamble that’s the case here.

Dangers: One of the rare flops in the career of 4. Easy Eddie was on a heavy track. Soft is fine. The four-year-old enjoyed a fantastic preparation last time in and looks destined for Group races. It’s the typical mould we see so often with Joe Pride sprinters. They improve every campaign and before you know it, they are racing at the very top level. 5. Trekking’s trials have been sensational. He won three of his six starts last campaign. Again though, is the query over a heavy track. Especially first up. 3. Fiery Heights is flying. He has failed in NSW once before but wasn’t in this vein of form. 10. Junglized is holding his form well.

How to play it: All Over Bosanova EACH WAY ($9 TAB Fixed Odds)


All Over Bosanova winning at Canberra on Sunday

Race 3 - 2:15PM HARROLDS MAGIC NIGHT STAKES (1200 METRES)

4. Athiri didn’t have much luck in her two Melbourne runs. In the Blue Diamond Prelude she was trapped wide the trip but bravely fought on to run third to Lyre before again she was beaten by Lyre in the Blue Diamond. On that occasion she got a long way back and had the winner kick up on her outside at the top of the straight. She started $4.80 which is a strong push in itself. She won at Rosehill on debut easily accounting for handy colt Accession. She is yet to race on anything other than a good track and not overly thrilled that she has drawn 1 but we’ll leave it to James McDonald to weave some magic. There is every chance the jockeys are already looking to get off the fence come this race. Saloon passage up the fence ala Mossfun?

Dangers: The Blue Diamond form it too hard to ignore which makes 2. Lankan Star the danger. She has been right around the mark in the same races as Athiri. Has raced well on a soft track at Flemington but a heavy track at Rosehill is a different kettle of fish. There was plenty of style about 10. Villami’s debut win but she is very closely priced to those coming out of the Blue Diamond. If you fancy Villami, don’t overlook 15. Crystal Falls. Against the pattern of the day she ran Villami to 1.3L and Punters Intelligence reveals her closing 600m was comfortably the quickest in the race (33.59s). She is monster odds! 1. Probabeel is the wildcard across from New Zealand. Trainer Jamie Richards suspects the Sires will be more her go.

How to play it: Athiri WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds) and Lankan Star ($8.50 WIN)


A reminder of Athiri’s win on debut at Rosehill

Race 4 - 2:55PM BOWERMANS OFFICE FURNITURE PAGO PAGO STAKES (1200 METRES)

Unlike the fillies in the Magic Night, there doesn’t look to be a great deal of speed engaged here. 2. Cosmic Force should have little trouble sliding across from his wide draw to settle in the first two. Of all the exposed form here his last start second to Microphone stands head and shoulders above the rest. The Deep Field colt with Peter and Paul Snowden has improved every time he has stepped out. Back in third was Castelvecchio. So effectively he split one of the Golden Slipper favourites and the early Sires Produce favourite. Looked to get through the wet okay two back when he chased home Bivouac.

Dangers: 7. Mo’s Crown wasn’t entitled to finish where he did on debut given how hard he worked early. The time was considerably slower than Villami on the same day but most two-year-olds would have put the white flag at the top of the straight. Tassort gave 6. Born A Warrior windburn in the Silver Slipper having made their runs at the same time but the colt did a lot wrong. 1. Hightail has to be respected off his powerful effort in the Magic Millions the last time we saw him.

How to play it: Cosmic Force WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds)


Cosmic Force behind Microphone last start

Race 5 - 3:35PM CHANDON S PHAR LAP STAKES (1500 METRES)

Verry Elleegant is a top class filly. She still has the tendency to overrace, which was evident at her first start for Chris Waller but she still had the class to burst through and run Amphitrite to a length and run past Fundementalist, who we know has since run two Group One seconds in the Surround and Randwick Guineas. She was headed for the Australian Guineas, and was hard in the market, but had to change course after suffering an elevated temp on race eve. She is a month between runs here but that’ll ensure she is fresh enough to dash home over 1500m. Hopefully not too fresh given her history! Ticks the wet track box. Will need a clever ride from James McDonald but suspect she’ll prove too classy.

Dangers: 12. Zalatte only warmed up the last 100m in the G1 Surround Stakes first up. This has been an important race for Waller in gauging the quality of his fillies having won three of the past four with Winx, Foxplay and Unforgotten. If Verry Elleegant isn’t on her best behaviour the stablemate is the one that will take advantage. Will be better again in the Vinery but has the upside to win this on the way through. 7. Seabrook could find herself right on top of the speed here after the Kembla Grange Classic scratchings.

How to play it: Verry Elleegant WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Zalatte ($5)


Look at Zalatte’s last 100m in the Surround

Race 6 - 4:10PM SCHWEPPES SKY HIGH STAKES (2000 METRES)

Second up off a 74 week break over 2000m doesn’t scream tip me but that’s the task I’m backing 4. Tavago to overcome. The ATC Derby winner has been plagued with injuries throughout his career but when he gets conditions to suit, he is inevitably right there in the finish. The six-year-old won this race two years ago towelling up Antonio Giuseppe with the track rated a Soft 7 that day. He was then sent around $4.40 in The BMW but pulled up lame. Tavago has only had three runs since then, one of them being first up this time in, but all were on Good tracks. Thought he did enough fresh in the G2 Blamey. You’re taking him on trust that he is fit enough but Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young wouldn’t be travelling up to just make up the numbers.

Dangers: 1. Patrick Erin won the G1 Metrop third up last preparation. It’s because of that he lumps the 58kg here but he’ll start to come into his own now out to 2000m. He has run behind Winx at WFA first and second up. Loves the wet. 3. Red Cardinal was impressive at his first start for Kris Lees. Might want further than 2000m now but the wet track will make it a test. Could get the same set up too if 10. Samadoubt tries to skip away. 2. Age Of Fire and even 13. Rodrico come right into the mix on a wet track.

How to play it: Tavago WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)


Tavago winning the Sky Line in 2017

Race 7 - 4:50PM COOLMORE CLASSIC (1500 METRES)

Can’t remember the last time I have been this confident in a mares Group One race! 11. I Am Serious has had the perfect lead in. Her first up run was a beauty. She didn’t win but she always improves lengths on what she does first up, just have a look at her second up record (4:2-1-1). Last preparation she ran second to Flow fresh before giving Avilius a fright second up. The wet track won’t stop her, in fact, it’ll just ensure they don’t outsprint her. Have been waiting for I Am Serious to get to this race ever since she trialled so well back in late January and early February. Draws perfectly to blend into the race when James McDonald wants her to. Time to cash in.

Dangers: 20. Moss Trip ran well behind I Am Serious in the Millie Fox after missing the spring. She can only improve off that, handles the wet and sneaks into the field with 52.5kg (Tommy Berry is riding 1kg over). 17. Jamaican Rain has been the big firmer all week on the back of the rain. The six-year-old is one of the best wet trackers around. Has no other option other than to push on from the wide draw. Want to keep 8. Noire very safe. It was too bad to be true last start – turns out she pulled up lame. She’ll scoot through the wet and looks big odds. Then there are the three-year-old fillies 15. El Dorado Dreaming and 16. Fiesta. We know it’s a deep crop this year.

How to play it: I Am Serious WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)


The Millie Fox with I Am Serious and Moss Trip

Race 8 - 5:30PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS AJAX STAKES (1500 METRES)

3. Fifty Stars holds the ace of being a wet tracker here. It was his big advantage over Land Of Plenty and Dreamforce but both have come out. Fifty Stars won the Blamey last start and although he beat So Si Bon and Cool Chap, liked the ticker he showed to stick his neck out having been left in front a long way from home. Forget his second up failure as mucus was detected after the CF Orr. He hadn't beaten Land Of Plenty in their two previous meetings but that matters little now, the wet track swung things firmly in his corner anyways. He's the horse to beat but is short enough now with the two key scratchings.

Dangers: 11. Seaway was flattered by a very slow tempo at Rosehill last start but there doesn’t look to be much speed again here, with 10. Mask Of Time again likely to keep him company. Mask Of Time profiles like a horse that could want further now but the testing track negates that. 9. Fierce Impact faces a task her of the heavy track and being first up but he is yet to run poorly for Matt Smith. Convinced that 14. Dyslexic is absolutely flying but very surprised she is still lining up on the heavy track. Have to risk her in the conditions.

How to play it: Fifty Stars WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds)

Race 9 - 6:10PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1900 METRES)

3. Supernova looks destined for much bigger and better things as he creeps out in trip over the autumn. The import with Team Hawkes clocked 34s flat first up with Punters Intelligence revealing that was four lengths quicker than anything else in the race. He has never seen a wet track in his six career starts but the fact the stable scratched him from Melbourne to instead run here suggests there is a degree of confidence that he’ll handle it. Doesn’t look to be a brilliant gate horse but barrier 2 ensures he can slip into a midfield position behind what looks a good speed up front. Holds a nomination for the Sydney Cup over The Championships. Has a long way to go to get there but winning this would be the right first step.

Dangers: 13. Angel Of Truth is 1400m to 1900m but did tackle the mile first up prior to that so that doesn’t worry me at all. He ran well at Hawkesbury last start behind Safado but simply wanted further. The temptation of the Provincial Championships was there so connections had to have a throw at the stumps. Out to this trip and on the wet ground, expect the three-year-old to run well. 2. Desert Path jumped out of the ground second up to go down narrowly at Rosehill. He is another unknown in the ground. Maps to give these a big start. 5. White Boots is so honest while 10. Bajan Gold was very heavily backed on his Australian debut for Chris Waller.

How to play it: Supernova WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds)


Supernova running on behind Sondelon first up

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill Gardens meeting

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