By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 3m and the form has been done for a Soft track.
|Race 1 - 12:20PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
1. I Say Hello found her form again first up two weeks ago in what has already proven to be a deep race. The four-year-old didn’t come up last preparation but her three-year-old form prior to that was excellent, including a Group placing over The Championships before Kris Lees ran her in The Coast at Gosford. Two weeks ago she ran on into second finishing just 0.3L away from Lady Of Luxury. That mare subsequently impressed at the Gold Coast, sweeping home to win again, this time from last. Lady Banff ran second there and she’d come through the same race as I Say Hello, finishing seventh. The sixth placed Leave Me Some has won herself too. I Say Hello, who is racing in foal at the moment, lumps 59.5kg but that’s due to coming slightly back in grade. Expect her to stalk the leaders.
Dangers: 5. Kir Royale should be able to offset the wide draw pretty comfortably with any early intent. That’d likely see the three-year-old filly settle outside of 2. Titanium Power. Can’t see too many other speed horses so she’ll get her chance. The daughter of I Am Invincible, stabled with Chris Waller, has won two of her three starts, the latest of those at Canterbury, overcoming a bumping dual in the straight to find clear running. The margin was only half a length but she was a very soft winner on the line. Finds herself in BM72 company now, against some hardened rivals, and she is still in her first racing preparation, but she’s got more upside. Rory Hutchings has been aboard Titanium Power in all four of his career wins (from eight rides).
How to play it: I Say Hello WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
I Say Hello first up at Randwick
|Race 2 - 12:55PM DAVALI HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
7. Treasurer showed plenty of zip in his Wyong trial win and the third placed Golden Passport provides a reference for Metallicity, who was the $1.70 favourite before being scratched from this race. Treasurer, a capitalist colt trained by Brad Widdup, came under pressure at the 400m point in that trial but like the way he responded through the line. The race has been cracked wide open with no Metallicity.
Dangers: 4. Midnightinmontreal came under pressure in his trials so Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have elected to throw the blinkers on. That pair look the most likely to take up the running. 11. Street Smarts was posted throughout in the Gimcrack but was supported in betting late and like the way she has trialled since. The obvious knock is where she finds herself from the sticky draw. It’s the same query for 1. Flashing Steel but he too caught the eye in his trials. Expect 5. Northern Beaches to be strong late being a half relation to Aylmerton and Arnaqueur.
How to play it: Treasurer EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Metallicity’s latest trial at Rosehill
|Race 3 - 1:30PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
6. King’s Trust was simply beaten by the barrier draw last start. The six-year-old is certainly no stranger to Highway Handicaps with 16 of his last 17 runs in the Saturday country series. The Terry Robinson-trained son of Hinchinbrook has arguably never raced more consistently in his career, however. A fortnight ago he was forced back to a long last from barrier 12 in the field of 12 and ran home in the fastest closing splits in the race. He was well supported in betting too. He’ll need to turn the tables on 4. Banju but the lower draw should see him settle down at least a couple of pairs closer and Banju’s past form suggests that he is more dynamic on top of the ground. King’s Trust ran well on a Heavy 10 three starts ago at Rosehill. Has to be thereabouts once more on his recent form.
Dangers: 3. Absolute Trust won a Highway a couple of preparations ago and have liked the way he has worked through the line at his two runs back this time, suggesting he wants this trip. Should be able to hold a forward spot in running too. 5. Lord Desanimaux hasn’t run poorly in a long time now and wouldn’t expect that to change. Like him cuddled up on the fence but will need luck at the right time. 11. Pay The Deeler brings BM70 form up from Melbourne with the mare racing in career best form deep into her preparation. 12. Pruscino looks the likely leader while 2. Activation and 10. Lucky Banner are capable but get back.
How to play it: King’s Trust WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
King’s Trust running on behind Banju last start
|Race 4 - 2:05PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
6. Sky Command’s asset is her speed and although she is unlikely to have it all her own way in front in this Midway, backing her quality to overcome that. Would also be more comfortable over 1000m or 1100m as she is yet to tackle 1200m in her four start career to date but again, she’s proven her class already. She gave both Sneaky Paige and Dragonstone touch ups as a late two-year-old which prompted Gary Portelli to deep end her in the Listed Rosebud won by Paulele with In The Congo running second. She jumped $5.50 in that field, such was the market respect. She then came back to a BM72 only to be run down in the final strides. There has been a lot to like about her two trials this time back too. She’s the one to beat, particularly with the rain around, even with the two queries around a possible fast tempo and the trip.
Dangers: Ellen Hennessey has ridden 1. Easy Campese three times for two wins and a third, and was aggressive on all three occasions. Expect the same here from the wide draw. He was too bad to be true last start at Kembla Grange and the eight weeks between runs suggests an issue was subsequently found to explain the poor performance. 3. Misteed is an honest mare and a genuine wet track would bring her right into contention. 8. Eyewitness draws barrier 1 so does she punch up to hold out Sky Command? There’s also a little query on her over 1200m first up. 9. Finally Realise maps beautifully and wasn’t far away in a Midway last start. Hard to see him missing a place.
How to play it: Sky Command WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Sky Command winning a recent Warwick Farm trial
|Race 5 - 2:40PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Who leads this field up? It’s a race devoid of obvious pressure. Wouldn’t be surprised to see 8. Sword Point take up the running for the first time in his career. The three-year-old, with just five starts to his name, resumed with a brilliant maiden victory over 1550m at Canterbury, running much quicker time than the two BM72 races on the meeting. That saw Sword Point jump a heavily backed $1.80 pop at Warwick Farm second up but he found himself shuffled back in the run before being momentarily held up at the top of the straight. He would have won all being equal. The colt jumps a couple of grades from a midweek BM64 into a BM78 in Saturday company but he plummets 8kg in weight and in a race lacking tempo, should be able to put himself right there out to 2000m.
Dangers: It’s hard to be too critical of 5. Niffler given she has finished second in her only two career defeats, her last two starts, but she was given every possible chance. 2. Dhakuri pinched runs up the inside to knock her off two back. Niffler meets him 4.5kg better off after the claim of Tyler Schiller. Then last Saturday, Casino Kid dashed past Niffler to put a margin on her. She’ll be in the finish again, no doubt, but wary of tumbling into her at short odds. 1. Amica finally gets out to 2000m, a trip she appears to be crying out for. All four of her runs this time back have been excellent.
How to play it: Sword Point WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Sword Point running a luckless second last start
|Race 6 - 3:15PM ACY SECURITIES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
His get-back style often brings about the undoing of 3. Blesk but there looks to be an opportunity for Tom Sherry to settle down midfield in this. The five-year-old possesses a booming finish and although would be more confident if this were over a mile, getting out over a touch further than 1400m looks a plus. Last start he ran home into third behind Holyfield and Two Big Fari, the first two to the home turn. Prior to that he chased home Brookspire. A mentioned, he is at the mercy of a tempo that’ll allow him to pick up those ahead of him but 1. For Valour should at least be made to work early to cross 6. Ceasers Palace, and to a lesser extent, 8. Speed Legend. If that leaves For Valour vulnerable late, Blesk is the one that’ll pounce. A wet track wouldn’t stop him either.
Dangers: For Valour’s race will be won or lost in the first couple of hundred metres. He has won four from his last five, winning them all by less than a length, and makes his own luck so he has obvious claims. He started this preparation as a maiden! Speed Legend was comfortably held by For Valour last start but he gets a 3kg swing at the weights and will camp on For Valour’s back in the run. His best performance to date came on a heavy track so the wetter the better. 7. Monegal is always running on late, as was the case again last start behind Expat and Brookspire in the G3 Belle Of The Turf which makes her a knockout hope whenever she runs in this grade.
How to play it: Blesk WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"He only has to hold his form to win this."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) January 13, 2022
|Race 7 - 3:55PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
The drier the track, the better for 1. Belluci Babe so keep an eye on the sky heading into Saturday. The five-year-old mare was Group Three placed behind Minhaaj last preparation and looks well placed to resume a winner, just as she did last time in when running down On The Lead at Gosford. She cruised through the line in a Warwick Farm barrier trial recently. The Rosehill 1100m can prove troublesome for backmarkers, and from the draw she’s likely to settle down near the tail but Bjorn Baker has found a race for her that promises genuine speed. 5. Mr Mosaic will spear across from the wide draw but will first have to get across 6. Princess Rihanna and 7. Bulletin from their low draws. She only has a short, yet devastating, turn of foot so her run will need to be perfectly timed.
Dangers: 2. The Bopper missed the start first up but it mattered little with Hugh Bowman picking his way through the field to score emphatically in the end. There is more depth here jumping from a BM78 to an 88 but he’s entitled to be well found in the market. Mr Mosaic kept his unbeaten first up record intact six weeks ago and like that the Ryan and Alexiou stable have given him time to freshen up between runs. The query is whether he’ll be softened up early. It’s also fair to say that his off the canvas victory last start was more impressive to the eye than it was on the clock. If 4. Starla can stay in touch from the low draw, back to 1100m, she possesses a finish that could trouble these. The same can be said for 3. Dream Circle but he tackled the mile only two weeks ago. The wet track helps, however.
How to play it: Belluci Babe WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Belluci Babe placing in the G3 Nivison
|Race 8 - 4:35PM RANVET HANDICAP (1350 METRES)|
2. Rubamos will slip into a perfect trailing position in this race which will give him every chance to run down 4. Mensa Missile, as he did comfortably two starts ago, and 1. Fashchanel. That duo should keep each other busy enough to suit Rubamos. The four-year-old has returned as well as ever this campaign and even though he has won two from his five starts this campaign, he can be excused for his three defeats. In one of those he missed to I Am Lethal by the barest of margins while last start on the Kensington track he was exposed a long way from home in order to make up some ground on the leaders but they were never going to be caught with the quinella the first two to the home turn. Finds another perfect race for his level.
Dangers: Fashchanel was very impressive last start at Randwick and there was substance to the win on the clock too, despite getting control. Her record does suggest she is at her most dynamic when she dictates. Her Rosehill record is a slight worry too (3:0-0-0). Still, she only has to hold her form. Mensa Missile kept closing last start despite finding himself two pairs back. Has shown in the past that he can absorb pressure and still quicken. 3. Tamerlane wasn’t suited last start from the wide draw given the way the race was run. The knock is the start he’s likely to give away again. Expected a touch better finish from 5. Super Effort first up but he was only beaten a length and is better placed out to 1350m.
How to play it: Rubamos WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Rubamos beating Mensa Missile two starts ago
|Race 9 - 5:20PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
10. Fastconi was never in the hunt first up over 1000m. He was dragged back to last from the wide draw and quickly became detached from the field. Despite finishing sixth of seven runners, his 33.55s last 600m was the second quickest across the entire meeting, bettered only by the winner of the race Dragonstone. The runner up De Grawin subsequently franked the form line further by winning at the midweeks. Fastconi’s record of three wins from 20 starts doesn’t do him justice. He is a talented horse on his day and despite running 11 times last campaign, he didn’t put in a single poor run. He jumped single figure odds in each of those starts too. Just suspect the early market has been too quick to dismiss his chances in a very winnable race on the back of his sixth two back weeks, despite it being much better than it reads on paper. Handles all tracks.
Dangers: 6. Ulysses always runs well fresh. He is more seen as a miler than a sprinter but his first up run behind Gravina last preparation was a beauty. That was on a Soft 7 surface too. If Keegan Latham can hold a spot from an inside draw, he’s a very dangerous runner at odds. 3. Perigord is equally capable fresh and like the way he went to the line in a recent Rosehill trial. His best run last preparation was on a wet track. 4. Ranges is honest and can put himself outside of the leader from the wide draw. 11. Key Largo invites bad luck with his style but there’s a case to be made that he’d have won last start with clear running. 1. Liberty Sun is a must for exotics.
How to play it: Fastconi WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Fastconi’s forgivable first up sixth
|Race 10 - 6:00PM NED WHISKY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
1. Irish Angel will give most of her rivals a head start again but this race has been carved up by scratchings, with the small field only enhancing her claims. The 1100m on a wet track is an ideal set up for her. Last start she was held up for a couple of strides when fourth. She was never going to win but could have finished a touch closer. That was on a good track, a surface she is winless on. Be very forgiving. The Chris Waller-trained mare won brilliantly the last time she raced on her home deck, which was first up this preparation. A repeat of that sees her the horse to beat, even with the map query.
Dangers: 9. Lepreezy beat home Irish Angel last start and is close to another win. Her wet track form could see her improve again, she peaks now third up and should park outside of the lead. You can never discount 6. Steel Diamond in this grade but she has produced flat runs second up in the past. If the three-year-old version of 5. Celestine turned up, she’d breeze straight past these. Perhaps she just needed the run first up two weeks ago, her first outing in nearly a year, and her first for Matt Dale. 10. Star Cherie hasn’t done a lot wrong to date.
How to play it: Irish Angel WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Irish Angel winning at Rosehill first up