By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 6m and the track is rated in the Good range.
|Race 1 - 12:10PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
4. Carrilon did enough first up to suggest he can win second up, like we saw the five-year-old do last campaign. Trusting similar progression this time in having resumed over 1200m and now tackling 1400m. We saw the Tamworth-trained galloper, formerly with Godolphin, and now with Craig Martin, collect a Highway Handicap last preparation. It was a comfortably win too, and that was after not having much room the start prior to that win, also in Highway company. We know he can mix it at this level, with the little query being a run or two too soon. We saw last time out that he improved after each run. He was first up for nine months when resuming, but at the odds, willing to gamble he’ll be fit enough to give this a shake.
Dangers: 9. Gem Dealer speared through the pack late first up in Highway company over 1100m. Thought that she’d find the trip too sharp there but reckon she’d have troubled the winner with a clearer run throughout. Or at the very least, run second. Out to 1400m suits now. Hard to beat but certainly well found in the market. 5. Schappose worked to the line well last start in a similar race to this. 3. Nicconita next best.
How to play it: How to play it: Carrilon WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Carrilon winning a Highway last Novemeber
|Race 2 - 12:50PM EVEREST CARNIVAL HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
1. Loveisili is a horse that, at least in his Australian career, is ridden according to his barrier draw. From a low gate on Saturday, expect him to be tucked in behind the leaders. The import was dragged back to the tail at Rosehill last time out and Kerrin McEvoy, who sticks with the five-year-old, had to weave a path back to the inside. Punters Intelligence reveals he ran his last 600m in 34.29s, the quickest close of the race, and a clearly superior final 200m split of 11.70s. The Kris Lees-trained stayer has another big weight but he is accustomed to carrying those. There is less depth to this BM78 than the one he ran in last time out and we’re getting a similar price. Forgive the effort two back when five weeks between runs. He knocked up late. Prior to that he had won three on the bounce.
Dangers: 7. Humbolt Current ran well without threatening last start. Perhaps the inside was inferior but he was never beating Mrs Madrid. Back to 1800m on a dry deck now, could see him improve. He handles all surfaces from what we have seen to date but all three of his wins overseas were on Good tracks. Should be at his top fourth up. 6. Shock Alert has returned in great order, making Adana earn his win last time out but can’t find him as favourite, even as the likely leader with Nash Rawillier on board. That said, he'll make his own luck, likely parking outside of 11. Perfect Rhyme.
How to play it: Loveisili EACH WAY ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Loveisili last start at Rosehill
|Race 3 - 1:25PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Can make a case for 2. Dissolute at big odds in a very open race. The six-year-old has been sent around triple figures at his latest two outings but this is a much easier race. The first of those was in the G2 Missile Stakes at weight for age behind Alizee where he finished alongside Le Romain, while last start Sweet Deal and Prime Candidate dictated from the front and he found bother after settling midfield. His form looks plain on paper but he has had genuine excuses all campaign. This is his first try out to 1500m but he relished 1300m when still with Godolphin, beating Sexy Eyes and 3. Mapmaker and while last start was rather inconclusive the way he picked himself up again to work through the line over 1400m, suggests the extra trip might be what this son of New Approach is looking for. Should be in the first four and in a race with no standout, be in the finish somewhere.
Dangers: Thought 7. Adana had his birthday there last start but he has found an equally suitable race again, albeit back on top of the ground. Doesn’t map to be as close, from the wide draw. Inclined to risk him at the early price. 5. Irukandji was awful on the heavy track behind Adana last start but his first up run, behind Prime Candidate and subsequent Caulfield winner Dawn Dawn was an eye-catcher. That was his first run as a gelding and for Bjorn Baker. Can bounce back but is well found having been well supported earlier in the week. 3. Mapmaker had to slip back to the midweeks to win last start, and he got off the canvas to do so, but he’s rock hard fit and loves Rosehill. 6. Juventus is an honest campaigner and that’s enough to put him in the mix in this.
How to play it: Dissolute EACH WAY ($23 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Dissolute had no luck last start
|Race 4 - 2:00PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
3. Dabiyr was a devastating winner at Moonee Valley last time out when tackling 2500m for the first time in his seven start career. It was the import’s fourth start in Australia and he settled second before ripping clear late. The race was run at a good clip and he relished that. His profile suggests he’ll at least hold that form, if not go ahead again which will be enough to win this too. There’s always a little query on transferring that form from Melbourne to Sydney, and the depth of the race he won, but suspect Chris Waller has elected to bring him back to Sydney after that, with one eye on the G1 Metrop. At least to give Dabiyr his chance to measure up, anyways. We can still catch him on the way through here before tackling Group races. James McDonald should play the stalking role from the perfect draw.
Dangers: 5. Gayatri was no match for Our Candidate last start but there was 2.3L back to third. Out to 2400m, on a dry track and ridden positively to sit outside of the leader saw her bounce back to form. Her run prior to that, when never out of second gear, was full of merit too. Won’t get as easy a time in front in the middle stages with 11. Castel Sant’Angleo rolling but she is close to another win. The same can be said for 6. Costello. Thought he was game last start despite David Payne suggesting he isn’t all that happy in heavy ground. He met Gayatri two back and was also luckless. Not a lot between the two. Reluctant to underestimate 12. Mrs Madrid but this poses a very different challenge over 2400m and on a good track.
How to play it: Dabiyr WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
Gayatri running second to Our Candidate
|Race 5 - 2:35PM DULCIFY STAKES (1500 METRES)|
1. Castelvecchio is a Group One horse running in a Listed race. He is exceptionally well weighted given his rating and if he’s forward enough first up, which trainer Richard Litt suggests he is, he’s the horse to beat. Have mapped him to settle three quarters of the way back. He has never really been a flash trialler but it was encouraging to see him tack on in his second outing having been beaten a long way in his first trial. In the second, he didn’t have to be niggled at all despite settling out the back. He had the speed to win twice over 1200m as a two-year-old but like the approach of tackling the 1500m fresh instead of the Run To The Rose. Strong all the way winner 6. Just Thinkin’ and 8. Edison, luckless last time out, will likely get control from the front, so Castelvecchio is vulnerable given the set up but banking on his class.
Dangers: The race looks top heavy as far as the better chances go but don’t discount 9. Fasano. He won a Hawkesbury maiden first up over 1100m after mixing it with some handy ones at two. That includes 3. Shadow Hero, and he went on to run a beauty from last in the JJ Atkins. Watch for Shadow Hero late, but Fasano, parking in behind the speed from the better draw, can figure at odds. 4. Superium cost himself victory against 2. True Detective in the Up And Coming. More was expected from hin last Saturday but it was his first exposure to a soft track, he didn’t get cover and raced like he wanted further which he gets now. 5. Subedar didn’t look comfortable in heavy ground in the Ming Dynasty but still worked to the line. Blinkers go on.
How to play it: Castelvecchio WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) and Fasano WIN ($23) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Castelvecchio and Shadow Hero at Warwick Farm – September 5
|Race 6 - 3:10PM SYDNEY MARKETS RUN TO THE ROSE (1200 METRES)|
4. Exceedance was devastating first up in the San Domenico Stakes. Anaheed and 3. Bivouac controlled the race from the front but were no match of Exceedance’s finish. The Hawkes-trained colt clocked a 22.05s last 400m on a heavy track (10.82s, 11.23s). His last 600m, according to Punters Intelligence was 33.64s, three lengths faster than the next best, despite the sit and sprint nature of the race. It was well documented the late splits he ran at his second ever start (32.21s last 600m) which backed up what we saw at Wyong on debut. He looks the benchmark three-year-old in the country at the moment, and is only three starts into his career. There doesn’t look to be an abundance of speed here, with 8. Mo’s Crown potentially rolling across from the gate but no matter how this race is run, Exceedance has the finish to reel these in.
Dangers: 3. Bivouac was sent around $1.35 in the San Domenico, as he was expected to lap up the wet after belting his rivals in the Vain Stakes first up. He looked disappointing on face value but he didn’t run poorly, he was just no match for Exceedance. Can’t see a firmer track aiding his claims to turn the tables. The best part about 5. Dawn Passage’s Rosebud win was his strength through the line – he was pulling away late. Let It Pour ran second there and has held her form against Libertini since. Could settle much closer. 2. Yes Yes Yes has done enough in his trials. Of course he can measure up here, but given the respect he has in the market want to see him first up. Convinced 6. Kubrick is top shelf. Might need this ahead of the Golden Rose but he’ll run very well. 1. Prince Fawaz is likely to find a couple too sharp but he hasn’t been beaten since the blinkers went on.
How to play it: Exceedance WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Exceedance winning the San Domenico
|Race 7 - 3:50PM TOOHEYS 150TH BIRTHDAY THEO MARKS STAKES (1300 METRES)|
Chris Waller doesn’t look to be taking any chances with 6. Arcadia Queen kicking her off over 1300m. We’re going to learn a lot about her on Saturday but on what we’ve seen to date in Western Australia, she’s one of the most talented horses in the country. She did it all in her first racing preparation too, progressing from a Belmont maiden to three months later, towelling up her older rivals in the G1 Kingston Town, albeit over 1800m. Waller is now tasked with keeping her sharp as she treks towards The Everest. There was a lot of quality about the way she moved to the line in her two trials, responding strongly to the slightest of niggles in the latest of those. Exactly what you wanted to see. James McDonald will need to duck and weave from barrier 1, as have her settling midfield, but there is a chance 5. Deploy stretches the field out. Short enough but the horse to beat.
Dangers: Wary of 11. Trope. He’ll need the race run to suit but will be thundering down the outside. He got held up for a couple of strides at the 400m first up and it the difference in the end finishing a nostril hair off Deprive. Punters Intelligence shows a 32.33s last 600m and a powerful last 200m of 10.70s. 7. Redouble can run well at odds first up. He was only 0.5L off Trekking in a Group Three fresh last preparation. Has trialled well. Will be able to use the draw to settle midfield. Speaking of fresh horses, 4. Tom Melbourne always shows up off a break. He was dominant first up last campaign, albeit against Flow. Again, he’s a place chance. Deploy charged along in front at Scone first up last preparation, in what was the best run of his campaign.
How to play it: Arcadia Queen WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Arcadia Queen’s latest trial – Canterbury September 2
|Race 8 - 4:30PM SCHWEPPES SHERACO STAKES (1200 METRES)|
What’s that definition of insanity again? You guessed it, 11. Dyslexic goes in on top. She tackles 1200m second up on a dry track and from a middle draw. It’s now or never for this five-year-old mare with Team Hawkes. She ran fourth first up but turned in the run of the race. From a clear last, having drawn wide, she rattled home in 32.66s for her last 600, and clocked the fastest last 200m at 11.02s. Reckon she’d had enough come the last 50m too, peaking on her run. She has such an explosive turn of foot and that will be much more evident when she can settle with the leaders within her sights. She gets a handy 3.5kg swing on 9. Mizzy and certainly won’t be giving away a six length head start. This Foxwedge galloper has been flying for some time but nothing has gone to script. That can all change come Saturday. If like me, you’ve been with her to this point, give her one more chance.
Dangers: You can make a case for every runner in this field! 14. Fasika is undefeated and although she’ll need to find another level to measure up at four, she has the scope to. Liked the way she trialled on three occasions. Still have healthy respect for Mizzy. She got the breaks first up but was never losing, winning with authority. Imagine she spears across to sit on top of the speed. Off 4. Champagne Cuddles runs in the TJ Smith and All Aged, she’s a deserving favourite. However, it’s hard to tumble into her at the odds given her strike rate. 13. Ready To Prophet got 5.5kg off Madam Rouge to win at Scone first up last campaign but was impressive. Her most recent trial suggests we can expect something similar.
How to play it: Dyslexic EACH WAY ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
This mare has been flying for some time now but everything aligns for her on Saturday.@BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to spotlight her first up run behind Mizzy @HawkesRacing @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/wjQKO6R0gK
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 11, 2019
|Race 9 - 5:10PM FUGEN CONSTRUCTIONS SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
14. God Of Thunder slides up in grade but on the strength of his Rosehill 1100m win last start, he’s capable of progressing through to Group company over the spring. That was on a wet track but he was so dominant in closing the race off. The four-year-old has always had the talent but the gelding operation looks to have been the making of him. He was unlucky not to win first up over 1000m behind Royal Witness (since won again), having struck a wall of horses half way down the straight. We’ve seen the son of More Than Ready settle back in the field in both starts this campaign, having typically found himself on speed when a colt. It’s worked. After the emergencies come out, of which he is one, but should secure a run, regular jockey Brenton Avdulla will park him midfield. With 53.5kg on his back, 7kg lighter than 1. All Too Royal he profiles as the winner.
Dangers: Terrified of All Too Royal despite the big impost. He was outstanding first up, which was a month ago now having dodged a wet track since, coming from last to breeze past Mister Songman. There was so much power about his finish, clocking 32.19s for his last 600m and breaking 11s home (10.99s). He broke the Kenso track record for good measure. That took his record to seven from 13, and it’s the best he has ever gone! 11. Sharpe Hussler will be out to show his Kosciuszko wares. He was explosive in winning this track and trip back in July last year off an identical set up (two runs, freshen, barrier trial).
How to play it: God Of Thunder WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"With 53.5kg on his back, he profiles as the horse to beat."@BradJGray is siding with a gelding that has the scope to be running in better races than this over the spring @tabcomau @Darby_Racing pic.twitter.com/oYrG86LyW3
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 13, 2019