By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is True and the form has been done for a Good-Soft track.
|Race 1 - 12:45PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
5. Cyber Intervention can be hit and miss but his best would see him in the finish in a race like this. First up the five-year-old dashed quickly to win over 1400m but failed to replicate that second up staying at 1400m. There was nothing in the stewards’ report explaining it so we’ll just chalk it off to being flat second up and wanting more ground. He gets that here out to 1900m third up in what is a very winnable race. Top hoop Kerrin McEvoy sticks and will have the Joe Pride-trained gelding in a midfield position from the low draw. The son of So You Think will need the breaks at the right time but he has a turn of foot, which something many of his rivals don’t possess.
Dangers: 4. Humbolt Current went out on a winning note and he isn’t the roughest chance to resume on one. Liked how he rallied again across the line once he was headed in his trial and that he is kicking off over 1900m. He was a frustrating horse last campaign but you couldn’t knock his consistency. 7. Yonkers is hard in the market on the back of two straight wins but don’t overlook 10. Zoffany’s Lad through that same form line. Wasn’t beaten far by Yonkers two back and meets him 4.5kg better off. Zoffany’s Lad has since run second to Sea Of Life. 14. Welsh Legend ran second to Mugatoo last start. Before you get too carried away, something had to, but that gives her a hope in this. 1. White Boots rarely runs poorly.
How to play it: How to play it: Cyber Intervention WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and Humbolt Current WIN ($19) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Cyber Intervention winning first up
|Race 2 - 1:25PM BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE PAGO PAGO STAKES (1200 METRES)|
3.Ilovemyself didn’t smash the clock on his debut win but sometimes you have to trust you eye. This Greg Eurell-trained colt was held up down the Flemington straight when the field packed up towards the inside but when he saw daylight, pinged quickly to put the field away. The leaders were tiring but he should have won by further. One of those front runners was Time Is Precious, Gerald Ryan’s filly that held off 5. Postcode at Randwick, which ties into the Sydney two-year-olds and specifically, the G2 Skyline Stakes. Nash Rawilller takes the ride on Ilovemyself and although the barrier dictates that the son of Ilovethiscity will settle in the second half, there’s enough speed for him to get his chance.
Dangers: Wasn’t taken by what those in the Skyline produced last start where debutant Mamaragan sat outside of the leader Postcode and was never headed. He was there to be beaten late but held a dominant winning margin. 1. Aim was luckless, hitting the line like the 1400m of the Sires might suit better. That opens the door for a colt like 7. Kumasi to stand up. The son of Snitzel reeled in Deniki at Gosford on debut despite being niggled at for most of the 1000m journey. Would be a lot more bullish if Deniki had run up to her SP at Warwick Farm on Wednesday when rolled as a $1.60 favourite but not willing to write Kumasi off on the back of another horse’s failure.
How to play it: Ilovemyself WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
The Skyline Stakes provides most of the field
|Race 3 - 2:00PM ANTLER LUGGAGE MAGIC NIGHT STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Looked desperately for a betting angle to exploit in this race but here were are coming back to 1. Stellar Pauline. The perennial bridesmaid won’t get a better chance to break through than this. The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained filly has run second in all four of her runs – behind Every Rose, Aim, Away Game and Hungry Heart. Last start she went straight to the front and raced a touch keenly. Despite having her chance, Hungry Heart rushed straight past her from the tail of the field. She was simply no match but suspect Hungry Heart will run a big race in the Golden Slipper so not scoring her down too heavily for that. There is good speed in this which will give her the chance to find cover and rush home like she did in the Magic Millions.
Dangers: If 4. Sancy had drawn a better marble she may have found herself on top. It’s another two-year-old in the Snowden stable. Thought she did a good job on debut back in early December. She looked to float having hit the front so early. Looked good in a trial since then. The double figure odds appeal. 8. Kaakit Akit (‘attractive’ in Filipino) lived up to her name with a stylish win on debut. She got control in front, however, and faces a very different set up here in a near capacity field with a stack of speed engaged. 15. Only Mine is on debut but can run well at odds on the strength of her trial alongside Sancy.
How to play it: Stellar Pauline WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds) and QUINELLA 1,4 Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Stellar Pauline won’t find herself in front like last start
|Race 4 - 2:35PM CANADIAN CLUB MAURICE MCCARTEN STAKES (1100 METRES)|
The last time 1. Tactical Advantage raced at Rosehill he gave away 7kg to Trekking, covered ground throughout and only went down a head. The six-year-old has won 10 from 30 and pays for that consistency with the 59.5kg. The Kris Lees-trained sprinter was thrown in the deep end first up last campaign in the G1 Moir Stakes won by Nature Strip but failed to fire. He found his form third up though, towelling up his rivals down the Flemington straight before savaging the line behind Savatiano in The Hunter at Newcastle, where the winner broke the track record. His form can be a little patchy but his best wins this. 5. Zoustyle, 9. Goldfinch and 2. Greyworm will pour on the pressure setting it up for him to charge home.
Dangers: 4. Soothing is another one that’ll appreciate a strong tempo. James Cummings was toying with running the mare in the G1 Newmarket first up. He decided against it but it perhaps offers an insight into how well this five-year-old has returned. She went awful first up over the spring but bounced back to run a luckless second behind Mizzy before winning two of her three subsequent starts, and comfortably. Greyworm was dominant first up but did get complete control. Can win again but it’s a very different set up here. 3. Star Of The Seas will find 1100m on the short side but is versatile and gets the blinkers back on. That signals intent.
How to play it: Tactical Advantage WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Soothing ($6) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Tactical Advantage trialling ay Wyong – March 2
|Race 5 - 3:10PM CHANDON PHAR LAP STAKES (1500 METRES)|
6. Funstar was taken back to last from the wide draw in the G1 Surround Stakes first up so tactics will be interesting on Saturday from another outside stall. Probabeel pulled one back on Funstar having been beaten by her in their two previous meetings. Funstar was first up there and that told at the finish. Chris Waller’s star filly accelerated brilliantly at the top of the straight but couldn’t sustain that to the line with the race fit Probabeel clocking a last 200m a length quicker than Funstar (11.28 vs 11.46). The daughter of Adelaide can only improve off that and all being equal, should open her account for the autumn before heading towards the Vinery Stakes third up. Tipping she goes unbeaten for the rest of the carnival.
Dangers: Probabeel was left flatfooted in the Surround but there was plenty to like about the way she picked herself up to hit the line. Now fourth up, she presents as a very fit filly. Waller unsurprisingly has a strong hand here, in a race he has won four of the past five years, even outside of the favourite. 1. Kubrick dodged the Randwick Guineas last week due to the wet track. He mixed it with the best three-year-old colts in the country over the spring.
How to play it: Funstar WIN ($1.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Probabeel pulled one back on Funstar in the G1 Surround
|Race 6 - 3:45PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS AJAX STAKES (1500 METRES)|
2. Quackerjack is the high percentage play. You can speculate about how much improvement this rival has or what could have been for another runner but there’s no ‘what ifs’ with this bombproof gelding. He’s a bulldog, makes his own luck and has won three of his last four starts. The defeat was at the hands of Mister Sea Wolf in The Gong (in track record time) where he was posted three wide the trip. First up the four-year-old was suited by a gentle tempo which saw him fight out the finish with fellow leader 9. Vegadaze. It’s often hard to get a handle on races when they are run like that but what we can glean from the Punters Intelligence sectionals is that Quackerjack clocked the fastest last 200m in the race. Quicker than any of his rivals that were getting an even cosier time out the back. On the way he paraded too, the four-year-old may have returned better than ever.
Dangers: Vegadaze has to stretch his form out to 1500m but meets Quackerjack 1kg better off and looks to get some kind of control again on the map. Forget that 4. Cascadian and 5. Imaging went around in that same race. The two bumped heavily with Imaging pulling up lame. Cascadian needs to stand up here if he’s a genuine contender for the Doncaster. 10. I Am Superman and 8. Rock both did enough there first up while 3. Yulong Prince was a sneaky run from the back. Still might be half a run short but look for him late. 6. Night’s Watch didn’t have any luck at Flemington last start. 1. Olmedo was only beaten 1.6L by Circus Maximus two starts ago in a Group One over the mile in France.
How to play it: Quackerjack WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Quackerjack pairing off with Vegadaze last start
|Race 7 - 4:25PM COOLMORE CLASSIC (1500 METRES)|
5. Pohutukawa is now on top after the scratching of Sweet Deal. The four-year-old has a sense of timing about her third up having coming through key lead up the Guy Walter Stakes. From the wide draw she got a long way out of her ground there but hit the line hard. Punters Intelligence shows her last 200m of 11.95s was comfortably the quickest in the race. The cut out of the ground is key to her chances having never won on a Good track. The Godolphin trained mare last won a year ago in the Kembla Grange Classic so she has teased for a while now but gets the perfect set up, assuming she can settle a touch closer from the perfect draw.
Dangers: 7. Sylvia’s Mother ticked the 1400m box last start taking her record to seven wins from 11 starts. She brings different form to her stablemate Dawn Dawn. There was 1.4L from first to seventh there so if you fancy Sylvia’s Mother, don’t discount 11. Spanish Whisper as she improves second up (4:2-2-0) or outsider 15. Benitoite. 8. Delectation Girl was outsprinted first up behind Savatiano in a dash home but savaged the line in the Newcastle Newmarket last start in a truly run race behind Special Reward. 6. Con Te Partiro is likely to be ridden with cover after being burnt off by the hot speed in the Guy Walter. 14. Sweet Scandal boxed on well in that race given the torrid run she faced.
How to play it: Pohutukawa WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
|Race 8 - 5:05PM TAB SKY HIGH STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Since the blinkers went on 10. Master Of Wine he has won all three starts, and by a combined margin of 9.8L. The five-year-old with Team Hawkes jumped out of the ground at the backend of last preparation and continued where he left off in his first run back ahead of the autumn. It was over 1400m too! He can settle just about anywhere in the run, travels into races so sweetly and lets down with a brilliant turn of foot. With those attributes in his artillery it’s no surprise that he is high in the market for the staying Group Ones over the autumn. This is a much deeper field than first up and he jumps straight out to 2000m second up, but confident he’ll be winning again.
Dangers: 9. Mustajeer is probably the best weighted horse at Rosehill all day. Under the set weights and penalties the seven-year-old carries just 55kg despite being the highest rated runner in the race. He lumped 60.5kg when winning the Parramatta Cup first up. That was run at a brutal clip, and he faces a very different set up in this. 1. Danceteria landed in Australia with a huge reputation based on his overseas form, and rightly so. Hasn’t fired yet but in his defence, this is a drop back from the Cox Plate and Chipping Norton. We’ll get a better guide on where he sits after Saturday. Keep 6. Life Less Ordinary very safe as he looks set to peak third up.
How to play it: Master Of Wine WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
BEST BET 🚨
"On what he did first up, he is one of the most exciting stayers in the country."@BradJGray is siding with as @HawkesRacing trained galloper as his best of the day at @rosehillgardens @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/HcQVxVuADl
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) March 12, 2020
|Race 9 - 5:45PM CERRONE HANDICAP (1350 METRES)|
12. Designated (somehow!) ran third at Newcastle in a Provincial Championships heat. It looked as though the three-year-old had won watching it live. No matter, he still qualifies for the final and this would be a bonus on the way through. The Kristen Buchanan-trained gelding was brave there, making an early sustained run before being left a sitting shot for Oakfield Missile and handy mare Stella Sea Sun. The son of Rubick should be able to park midfield from the low draw and with just 50.5kg on his back after Andrew Adkin’s claim, he is a better chance than his odds suggest. He still only has 11 starts to his name so there’s still upside and he certainly wasn’t disgraced last campaign when deep ended in the Listed Gosford Guineas.
Dangers: Have little doubt that 2. Something Fast is the best horse in the race but Anthony Cummings has been upfront about the five-year-old’s minor setback heading into the autumn. His one trial was back in early February, albeit in a very hot heat! The niggle is how forward he’ll be first up. 10. Shock Alert was sent around triple figure odds first up but only finished two lengths off stabelmate 6. Positive Peace. She’ll strip fitter second up and his form last preparation says he is in the mix in this company. Little knock on Positive Peace coming back in trip again to 1350m. It’s probably minor but she is well found all the same.
How to play it: Designated EACH WAY ($19 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Designated last start at Newcastle