By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a Soft/Heavy track.
|Race 1 - 11:25AM DARLEY 2YO HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
With Andermatt scratched, 9. Oh Say goes in on top. It’s a big ask for an unraced horse especially on a heavy track but she looks a quality filly off her trials. She does give away race experience but Team Hawkes will have her ready to go on debut and in her trials she looked very professional, showing gate speed to put herself into the race and a good cruising speed. The latest of those trials was on a heavy track at Canterbury while her dam Testa Rossa mare Alberton Waltz was a heavy track winner in her nine start career, albeit in a BM60 at Canberra. The early market has taken no chances with her and the whispers are that the camp have high hopes for her so monitor late market moves.
Dangers: 1. Lady Banff faces a task being first up with 59kg and with the equally quick 11. Superbella likely to hold the front having drawn inside of her. Has trialled nicely and split Gotta Kiss (second in the JJ Atkins last week) and Anders back in December last year despite covering ground. She is classy though and James McDonald does the steering. On Superbella, be very forgiving of her last start failure when she was restrained. Has been back to the trials on a heavy deck and gapped her rivals. She’ll give all of these something to chase down and leaders can be hard to peg back this track and trip.
How to play it: How to play it: Oh Say WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Oh Say’s latest trial – Canterbury May 29
|Race 2 - 12:00PM TAB HIGHWAY PLATE (1500 METRES)|
11. Rockarosa has won two of her three starts since finding a home in Canberra with Keith Dryden. The first of those was on a heavy track at Wagga in the Queen Of The South beating Got Your Six. The three-year-old filly then ran on into sixth in a BM70 behind the likes of Earth Song, Riva Capri, Maggie Miss and Archanna. The daughter of Pierro then dropped back to 1300m on her home track and won running away, defying a betting drift. Out to the mile is a perfect progression now, especially under the set weight scale being the highest rated horse here. When trained by Chris Waller she ran second to Mirra Vision as just her second ever start while she beat Big Boy Roy at her first crack at the 1600m trip. Should be able to park midfield and the booking of Nash Rawillier could be a lead that she’s the pick of Dryden’s trio.
Dangers: All honours to 2. Leg Work last start as the placegetters 15. Art Cadeau and 5. Ready To Humble certainly had their chance, having controlled the race from towards the front. Ready To Humble gets a 3.5kg swing on Leg Work but was he strong enough at the end of 1400m to recommend here? Art Cadeau had his measure late too. 3. Banjo’s Voice is four weeks between runs but has to be considered off his last start second behind Perfect Pitch in a Highway Handicap where Leg Work ran a weaving third.
How to play it: Rockarosa WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Rockarosa winning at Canberra last start
|Race 3 - 12:35PM YES YES YES NEW TO COOLMORE HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
6. Miss Einstein was plain last start but happy to forgive her on the basis that she didn’t back up and therefore raced a touch flat. Prior to that she ran second to Opacity at Randwick beating home 5. Word For Word off an SP of $2.70 while Word For Word was sent around $11. That was in a slowly run race where she settled out the back and circled the field. First up she hit the line and second up was chopped out when making a run between Soldier Of Love and Celestial Falls, the former winning again since while the latter has subsequently placed in a Listed race at Doomben. Long story short, take out her last start run and she profiles very well for this race albeit with a big margin to turnaround on 1. Bound To Win.
Dangers: Word For Word is threatening to win again and she only has to hold her form to finish top three. Just went down to Opacity last Saturday having found the outside fence. The knock is that the worst run of her preparation was on the seven day back up but she was ridden upside down on that occasion. Bound To Win belted her rivals last start and is undefeated since the blinkers went on. She ticked the 1400m box last start and the wet track box but she will presumably be a lot further back from the wide draw here and jumps 3kg. Can win but it’s a tricky set up. 3. High Low Bet won third up last preparation on the back up and raced on the inferior ground last Saturday.
How to play it: Miss Einstein WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Miss Einstein has to turn the tables on Bound To Win
|Race 4 - 1:10PM TAB WINTER CUP (2400 METRES)|
1. Wu Gok rises 3kg from his last start romp in the Lord Mayors Cup but given the dominance of that win and his record on wet tracks, it’s hard to make a compelling case for any of his rivals that finished behind him to the turn the tables. That win was off an eight week freshen, and he eased in betting, so you’d have to assume he can only improve. Those heavy track stats in case you’d forgotten read 12:7-1-0. We can break that down further. In his seven runs on heavy tracks at 1900m and beyond, he has won six of them and finished second in the other, which was off a seven week break. The son of Sebring is only six years old and on the strength of his return, looks to have returned better than ever.
Dangers: 4. The Lord Mayor is working his way towards a win and now fourth up out to 2400m on a wet track with Hugh Bowman riding, everything falls into place for him. The biggest hurdle of course is pegging back the four length margin to Wu Gok, albeit with a 3kg weight swing in his favour. 2. Yulong Prince has only ever raced once over 2400m, when second in the G1 South African Derby. There won’t be a fitter horse in the field having been up since February, but like The Lord Mayer, has 3.8 lengths to make up on Wu Gok. 6. Gayatri comes through that same form line and wasn’t suited back to 2000m so could be a sharp improver back out in trip.
How to play it: Wu Gok WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Wu Gok winning the Lord Mayors Cup
|Race 5 - 1:50PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
14. Bring The Ransom had no luck whatsoever behind Mo’s Crown (scratched) last start. Doubt she’d have beaten him but she had plenty to offer suggesting she’d have finished in the money. She drops 2.5kg from that and strikes another heavy track, conditions she clearly relishes given her first up win before that latest outing. That was fourth up so she presents here rock hard fit and her third up run over 1100m behind Fituese was much better than it reads when back in trip. The scratchings don't make the draw as daunting and hoping she can slide across to tuck in behind the leaders/
Dangers: 9. Malea Magic will keep him honest up front, which is an apt word for the Bob Milligan-trained mare. Has to take on the boys here but only has to hold her form to be competitive again. 2. Rari’s last start second to Rubisaki on heavy ground jumps off the page as a form reference but he’s first up off one trial. Suspect he might need this run. No knock on 13. Switched other than her always being well found in the market.
How to play it: Bring The Ransom WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Bring The Ransom last start
|Race 6 - 2:30PM DE BORTOLI WINES HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
4. Matowi went out a winner at the end of last preparation and looks to have returned just as well this time back on the strength of his run behind Man Of Peace and Dealmaker first up on heavy ground over 1400m. That was a leader dominated race and despite finding trouble in the straight, picked himself up to finish fifth with Archedemus and subsequent winner Dealmaker finishing either side of him. We’ve seen enough of the four-year-old (seems he has been around a lot longer than that!) to know he has a sharp dash so drawn well is critical as is the jockey booking of James McDonald. The son of Ocean Park took two runs to find winning form last preparation but straight out to 1800m second up and the booking of J-Mac hints that Matowi is ready to fire already.
Dangers: 19. New Arrangement slides into second elect having made the field, after a luckless second last time out. 6. Soldier Of Love is chasing three on the bounce and is a deserved favourite. The four-year-old is tough, honest and makes his own luck. 10. Across Dubai warrants respect off an encouraging first outing for Chris Waller when beaten 2.9L by Solider Of Love. He didn’t have the clearest passage and Hugh Bowman sticks with the import. 1. Etana’s task hasn’t been made easy lumping 60kg from a wide draw but when she last backed up seven days later she dominated a Magic Millions race.
How to play it: Matowi WIN ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Matowi first up behind Man Of Peace
|Race 7 - 3:10PM CATANACHS SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
10. Lashes was well backed to beat 7. Adelong first up and despite running a well held second she gets her chance to turn the tables stripping fitter second up and meeting her a whopping 6kg better off. Lashes plummets from 59.5kg to 54.5kg. The four-year-old looks to have lost some of her early zip out of the gates but that turn of foot is still there and we know she loves heavy ground (3:2-0-1). That form line through Adelong and 12. Broken Arrows has been franked since with trainer Matthew Smith opting to keep Lashes on the fresh side. The mare kept the engine ticking over in a Warwick Farm barrier trial where she coasted to the line with Irithea. She did lead but was still slow into stride so suspect we’ll see her settle midfield on Saturday. Tackling 1100m on a wet track is an ideal set up for her.
Dangers: If 6. Inanup’s had drawn a gate, he’d be on top at the odds. There looks to be no other option but to drag back to last though and first up on a heavy track is a big task. The Jarrod Austin-trained six-year-old is an underrated galloper. 11. Superium peaked on his run first up behind Adelong but still clocked the fastest last 600m of the meeting with a burst between the 600-400m. He drops 5kg for this too. Adelong is a bulldog winning five of her seven starts but slightly regressed third up despite winning. Has she peaked already this preparation? 5. Blazing Miss keeps being underestimated.
How to play it: Lashes WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Lashes first up behind Adelong
|Race 8 - 3:50PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
9. Outrageous fits into this race well having proven himself on heavy ground last start when beaten a lip by Man Of Peace, and that horse has since run well again. That pair controlled the race from in front but Outrageous again maps to get in-run favours this time tucking in behind the speed. As the market suggests, this is the most open race at Rosehill, and finding the horse that’ll secure the best run could go a long way to finding the winner. This consistent four-year-old should get the drop on 2. Special Missile and 10. Toryjoy. He ran the second quickest last 600m of the meeting first up before second up Phaistos found the fast lane and rushed past him. Was a dominant winner his only previous run over the Rosehill 1300m.
Dangers: Have just about run out of patience with 8. Trumbull and his nasty habit of missing the start. Peaked on his run out to 1500m last start so back to 1300m suits. If a case is made for Outrageous, 15. Got Unders has to be in the conversation too. 3. Bangkok can improve sharply back onto a wet track and back to benchmark company. 14. True Detective might have got a shot of confidence from last start but draws off the track.
How to play it: Outrageous WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Outrageous last start handling the heavy
|Race 9 - 4:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Had 7. Handspun pegged as a dry tracker prior to her terrific return behind Adelong where she clocked the fastest last 200m split across the entire meeting (Punters Intelligence). That was on a heavy 8 over 1100m. A track rating she hasn’t been comfortable on in the past and over a trip short of her best. That just screams that this lightly-raced four-year-old has returned better than ever. Her two trials prior to her resumption hinted as much with her second hit out particularly eye catching breezing past subsequent winner Lexi’s Choice and talented stablemate Ranier. She won at Rosehill second up last preparation over 1350m with Hugh Bowman squeezing her through the narrowest of gaps. She’ll drift back and sweep wide from the draw but we’ll know how the track is playing by the last.
Dangers: 4. Tricky Gal might want a mile at this stage of her preparation but a testing 1300m will see her run well. Wasn’t suited in a muddling run race in Queensland last start with Red Chase since winning again. 11. Cuban Royale loves heavy ground (4:2-0-1) and drops back from a BM88 when third behind Esperance and Fituese into a BM78. Prior to that he was bottled up behind runners in the Masked Crusader race. 5. Night Of Power has trialled brilliantly while 1. Oakfield Missile warrants respect too.
How to play it: Handspun WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Has @godolphin mare Handspun returned better than ever?
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) June 12, 2020