By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 6m and the form has been done for a Good track.
|Race 1 - 12:15PM EVEREST CARNIVAL ON SALE HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
The last start run of 2. Korcho was A LOT better than it reads on paper, or even looked to the eye for that matter. The five-year-old import was jagged back to last from the wide draw before clocking 33.88s for his last 600m (Punters Intelligence). He was the only horse to breaks 34s, with the next best 34.13s. Then throw in the context that he was four weeks between runs and 2400m back to 2000m. Trainer Kris Lees obviously thought the son of Toronado needed the run otherwise he wouldn’t have lined up given the set up which made is near impossible for him to win. The mid-preparation freshen suggests that Lees is plotting a path to staying spring handicaps, presumably the Metrop. Korcho won two straight in July and that’s the version I’m expecting to turn up here.
Dangers: 3. Cadre Du Noir trounced his rivals at Sandown last start but how flattered was he by a lovely flowing ride by Ben Melham, and the rivals that he beat? In second, and a clear second, was Austria, a mare that couldn’t crack a midweeker when trained in Sydney. Cadre Du Noir ran second at his two starts prior to that, with the winners subsequently beaten out of sight. There is no denying he is a stayer on the up but the lack of depth to his Australian form has the alarm bells ringing given he is an odds on favourite here. Add into the mix the glue on shoes and going from soft tracks to a firmer deck. 4. Desert Path was unlucky not to win a sit-sprint 2400m last start and he reunites with Nash Rawiller.
How to play it: Korcho WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Korcho last start at Rosehill
|Race 2 - 12:50PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
15. Amy’s Shadow closed strongly in one of the highest rating Highways we’ve ever seen last start when eighth behind Brett Cavanough’s talented pair It’s Me and Pinnacle Prince, with the winner already locked in for The Kosciuszko. The time there was faster than the Toy Show. It’s Me clocked the fastest closing spits of the meeting but Amy’s Shadow was the hidden run in that race, clocking 11.85s for her last 200m (Punters Intelligence), the only horse outside of the quinella to break 12s home. That was staying at 1100m. The grey mare jumps straight out to 1400m now, which looks ideal. She was an impressive winner at Dubbo prior to that while her first up win at Warren stamped her as a mare to follow through the grades.
Dangers: 8. Yulong Base defied a betting drift to win comfortably in a Class 2 Highway a fortnight ago at this same track and trip. He was flattered by a slow tempo having sat outside of the leader and the time wasn’t great, so that bares keeping in mind. 10. Rex is a bold front-running type that went down fighting in the Moree Cup only last Sunday, collared late by Beacon. He’s hard fit and will give a sight if he’s left alone in front. He was beaten 5L in a Highway back in July but he’s more dynamic on top of the ground. 9. Dulette won a Highway last preparation and has been around the mark in a couple more since. Closed well at Taree first up and can only come on from that.
How to play it: Amy’s Shadow WIN ($17 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Amy’s Shadow finishing behind It’s Me
|Race 3 - 1:25PM CLEANAWAY HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
6. She’s Ideel drops 2.5kg and creeps out to 1800m second up. She showed no early zip at all first up but worked to the line strongly. Given how she raced there, the query is whether this trip will still be far enough. Might need 2400m this preparation. That said, she is a mare that is sure to be competing in better races than this over the carnival. Like the booking of Nash Rawiller too.
Dangers: Would love to know the tactics on 3. Yonkers ahead of time. The five-year-old is a key player if he’s allowed to slide forward, which he has done in the past. Went straight past stablemate Kinane first up to run third and the form out of that race has stacked up since. 11. Badoosh was slow away at Rosehill last start and it proved costly. Would prefer him from a wider draw, allowing him to slide across. 9. Guise is racing well but can be hard to catch. 5. Vegas Jewel chances were dealt a huge blow by the barrier.
How to play it: She’s Ideel WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
|Race 4 - 2:00PM VALE RICK WORTHINGTON HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Have mapped 1. Fituese to settle in front of 5. Masked Crusader and given how she quickened first and second up last preparation, any rivals that settle behind her will have to be very sharp to gun her down. Even with the 58kg, there’s a chance she’s off and gone. The four-year-old was stretched out to 1200m again at the backend of last preparation but it found her out once more. Over the 1000m and 1100m trips though she is explosive. In the Denise’s Joy she clocked a time just outside of the Rosehill track record, unleashing a devastating sprint. It’s not straightforward for her either from the draw but there might be a spot just in behind the leaders looking at how this race could play out early. Her two trials suggest she’s humming ahead of her return.
Dangers: Masked Crusader was outstanding in defeat behind Varda first up clocking exceptionally fast closing splits on the Heavy 10 surface. The boom gelding has been given four weeks to recover from that (scratched last week with a mouth boil). There is no doubt that he is better than a benchmark horse but staying at 1100m and from a tricky draw, which presumably means he is ridden conservatively, he is a risky proposition at even money. 9. Electric Girl probably wants further than 1200m now second up but she ran well in a high-rating race over this same track and trip last start. 7. Hilo trialled sweetly behind Fituese recently and was a big winner first up last campaign. 6. Wayupinthesky meets Fituese 5.5kg better off from their meeting back in May and she didn’t get a clear crack on that occasion.
How to play it: Fituese WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Fituese and Hilo trialling at Rosehill recently
|Race 5 - 2:40PM DRINKWISE DULCIFY QUALITY (1500 METRES)|
Provincial wins don’t come much more impressive than what 7. Mo’unga produced first up at Newcastle. The last 200m from the leggy son of Savabeel was that of a Group horse. Punters Intelligence reveals an 11.23s split, which was four lengths faster than anything else in the race and the quickest across the entire meeting including the 900m dash. The only reason he didn’t beat his rivals by further is that the tempo in the race was slow, with the 1.5L margin flattering to those that finished in the placings. TAB reacted by installing him the favourite for the G1 Spring Champion Stakes and the colt gets his chance to justify that here. With 6. Easy Campese, 9. Yardstick and 11. Jet Propulsion rolling along, he sets up to win again.
Dangers: 4. Overlord gets the barrier blanket for the first time in an attempt to rid his slow getaways that has kept him a maiden so far. Clocked the fastest closing splits in the Ming Dynasty first up but that counts for little if he gives away another impossible start. 5. Bazooka also closed strongly behind Holyfield but you have to wonder if there’s any upside left with him so deep into a campaign already. Breeders Plate winner 1. Global Quest is a curious runner here first up over 1500m for Chris Waller. Has only been beaten home by four horses in his four career starts with three of them being Farnan, Tagaloa and Prague. Has trialled up three times, the latest over 1200m.
How to play it: Mo’unga WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Why is a last start Newcastle winner favourite for the Spring Champion Stakes?
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 11, 2020
|Race 6 - 3:15PM DE BORTOLI WINES RUN TO THE ROSE (1200 METRES)|
1. Farnan took all before him at two, winning five of six including the Golden Slipper where he made the running yet still quickened brilliantly from in front before clocking a last 200m far superior to any of his rivals. That was after belting his opponents in the Silver Slipper (where 5. North Pacific ran third) before treating Blue Diamond winner Tagaloa with the same contempt in the Todman. That race also showed that he can sit outside of the leader and be equally dynamic. This colt’s two trials have been exceptional, suggesting he could be an equally dominant three-year-old. With regular rider Hugh Bowman in the saddle, he has cruised to the front in both of them and zipped through the line. The latest of those was the fastest of the morning with a very slick last 600m. Expect Farnan to make a big spring statement here.
Dangers: Anders wasn’t far off the track record when winning the Rosebud but no horse was finishing harder than 4. Mamaragan. He was negatively ridden from the draw but clocked 33.30s for his last 600m, with the next best being 7. Peltzer’s 33.61s. Much of that dominance came in the final 200m too. He’ll appreciate the 1200m and will settle closer. That’s not to undersell Peltzer’s effort chasing a hot speed. 5. North Pacific hasn’t beaten much in his two runs back but has donkey linked his rivals and has run time. This is his first crack at a dry track and given the history of the Hawkes stable, this run will be used to have the horse cherry ripe for the Golden Rose. Then there’s the Queenslander 3. Rothfire but I’ve already run out of space… what a race.
How to play it: Farnan WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Farnan winning a Randwick trial recently
|Race 7 - 3:55PM IRON JACK THEO MARKS STAKES (1300 METRES)|
10. Signore Fox is one of the most enigmatic horses in training but the five-year-old sets up well in this. The Show County looks the logical reference for the Theo Marks this year with the top three in the market all coming through that Group Three sprint yet Signore Fox is the one that has been forgotten. Admittedly, he did start at $21 but his run had as much merit as any of his rivals. When the pace slackened in the middle stages Signore Fox raced keenly which forced Jeff Penza to expose the son of Exceed And Excel earlier than he would have liked. That told the last 100m but he was beaten less than a length in what was a messy finish. Prior to that he won the Ramornie at Grafton. He has been back to the trials since and looked brilliant in sweeping home from last to put his rivals to the sword.
Dangers: 5. Funstar’s three-year-old exploits and reputation means she’ll always be cuddled by the market but there was nothing wrong with her return despite finishing sixth. Only Probabeel ran a faster last 600m (Punters Intelligence) and she is unbeaten second up. She’ll be much closer from a better draw. 3. Special Reward looks to assume control of this race from the front pending how aggressive the tactics are on 6. Wild Planet and former Kiwi-trained four-year-old 11. Riodini. Won at Randwick second up last campaign in good style. 4. Ranier has won three of his past five and was only a length away in a G1 Stradbroke. Don’t underestimate him.
How to play it: Signore Fox WIN ($21 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Signore Fox in the Show County last start
|Race 8 - 4:35PM SCHWEPPES SHERACO STAKES (1200 METRES)|
13. Seasons looks to be the mare that has slipped the net with bookmakers in the Sheraco. The six-year-old was a luckless third in the Toy Show first up, and there’d be very few people willing to argue the fact that she’d have won with clear running. If she did get that luck, there is no way she is the early price she has been posted. 7. Sweet Deal won the race and holds her spot in the market yet Seasons goes around double the odds. Not sure what happened to Seasons over the autumn but she certainly didn’t race up to her best. That said, she was still only beaten 3L by 8. Fasika in the Wenona Girl despite firing up in the middle stages. These races are typically a lot more open than the market suggests. Seasons maps to get every chance in the run and has the run under her belt.
Dangers: 5. Haut Brion Her has spent a year on the sidelines but she is a very sharp mare, as evidenced by her two trial wins this time back. There’s no denying her ability just a query over how forward she’ll be here first up. Fasika ran third in the G1 All Aged Stakes the last time we saw her and is tuned up for this with three trials under her belt. A genuine clip here should suit her as she relished the brutal tempo of the All Aged. The knock is the price. 3. Mizzy is drawn to advantage and would be top pick over 1100m. 1. Flit will need luck from a horrible draw but the blinkers go back on and her record over 1200m is exceptional. The barrier looks even worse for 7. Sweet Deal.
How to play it: Seasons WIN ($18 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
A luckless Seasons last start behind Sweet Deal
|Race 9 - 5:15PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
16. Kingsheir is the most lightly-raced galloper in this field with the only blot on his record due to a heavy track where he couldn’t quicken. Got back on top of the ground last start and although only winning by a length in midweek company, there was more merit than meets the eye. The overall time was slick and the four-year-old ripped home in 33.61s for his last 600m, some 3.5L quicker than the next best, and loved his strength through the line. Perhaps the son of British stallion Kingman wants further than this trip now but if he displays that same turn of foot with 54kg on his back and cuddled up from the inside draw, he profiles as the horse to beat. This is his hardest test to date but he bring an exceptionally strong SP profile and is nominated for all of the big spring features underlining the stable’s opinion of him.
Dangers: 1. Entente found the 1200m too sharp first up, especially when it turned into a sprint home. The gelding held his ground through the line, however, suggesting he’d improve sharply second up over further. Whether he still finds one or two too sharp over this trip is the query but he’ll be winning races this preparation as he inches out to 2000m. 5. Laure Me In has been trialling brilliantly and will be closing harder than most late. James McDonald rides. 6. Discharged is ready to win third up, just needs more control than what he got first and second up. If he gets that early, he’s dangerous. 2. White Boots, 7. Betcha Flying and 13. Amitto are all capable at odds.
How to play it: Kingsheir WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
"He was kidding to his rivals and ripped home in sharp time."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 10, 2020