By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 5m and the form has been done for a Good/Soft track.
|Race 1 - 11:35AM DARLEY 2YO HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
2. North Pacific was deep-ended on debut with Team Hawkes running him in the Silver Slipper in an eleventh hour bid to qualify for the Golden Slipper. The $800,000 Brazen Beau colt was shuffled back in the run and ran on into third behind Farnan with Breeders Plate winner Global Quest holding down second. He was well supported late in betting too, starting $8. Doesn’t take much imagination reading between the lines to realise that the camp have a very high opinion of the youngster and imagine he is back at this time of the year to chalk up a few wins earning a tilt at loftier targets over the spring. Coincidentally, Spend stepped out at this very meeting last year for the stable. North Pacific’s recent trial oozed quality. Expect the money to come.
Dangers: 6. Sahra was as impressive on the clock as she was to the eye on debut running near identical time to the BM64 on the same day. Her closing splits were dominant and loved her turn of foot after the field had packed up turning for home. Free State half franked the form at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. 1. Lady Banff overcame a slow getaway and lumped 59kg to victory first up but clocked a pedestrian last 200m. Like the way she accelerated prior to that though. Still have a little query on the depth of that race. 3. Thudson next best off an impressive win in Melbourne on debut while likely leader 7. Able Hill could be in this for a lot longer than his price suggests.
How to play it: North Pacific WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
North Pacific trialling at Rosehill
|Race 2 - 12:10PM DE BORTOLI WINES HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
10. Fulmina was brilliant when winning at Rosehill last start after being shuffled back in the run. The three-year-old filly reeled off the fastest last 200m of the entire meeting (Punters Intelligence) and of course did it at the end of 1800m. Meanwhile, her last 600m was bettered only by Godolphin’s two winners Roheryn and Kordia. That strength through the line suggests she’ll only be better again out to 2000m. She was only a 66 rater going into that race, hence why she carried just 52.5kg but even now being a 71 rater she only rises to 53kg albeit coming out of a fillies and mares race. Mark Newnham certainly has the knack with these young middle distance gallopers and she looks a filly destined for bigger things. Perfectly placed to win again.
Dangers: 2. My Swashbuckler had his momentum halted last start amid chasing home Agassi and Mr Dependable in a leader dominated race. His last 600m was two lengths faster than anything else there. Third up out to 2000m is a logical progression. Forget his Aussie debut. 3. New Arrangement is dangerous given how well he ran back to 1500m last start and suspect he’ll appreciate a firmer track. 5. Guise bounced back to form behind Fulmina last start which warrants immediate respect. 6. Birth Of Venus is ready to win now, and was a big winner third up last preparation and the track donwgrade this morning helps. 7. Korcho was a hidden run last start having done a stack of work in the middle stages before peaking.
How to play it: Fulmina WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
"That strength through the line suggests she'll be better again out to 2000m."
📹BEST BET: You only get one crack at backing a horse going through the grades and that's front of mind for @BradJGray when assessing this progressive filly @tabcomau @mark_mnracing pic.twitter.com/HxQ12AUhtW
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) July 9, 2020
|Race 3 - 12:45PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
4. Texas Storm savaged the line when 1300m back to 1100m at Port Macquarie last start. The five-year-old looked set to finish last at the top of the straight having been dropped back to the rear but motored through the line to be beaten only two lengths. That’ll tune the son of All American up perfectly out to 1400m now in this Class 3. The Bob Milligan-trained gelding has hit a purple patch of form beating Thiswilldous three runs back before being touched off by Luga Lad at Taree. There is plenty of speed engaged giving Matthew Bennett the option of balance him up worse than midfield before letting rip. Bennett has ridden the horse in his last three starts and comes to town for just the one ride on Saturday.
Dangers: 17. Starliv is flying this time back for Matt Dale. The filly put her rivals away first up running faster time than the benchmark race on the same day before going down to Lady Brook, subsequently second in a BM70 at Sandown as the $3.20 favourite. She then clung on at Moruya but went so hard in front, she did a huge job to get her nose down. Will just need a touch of luck early to find a spot. 12. Gorush Lightning produced a big spike in his form at Goulburn two back but proved that was no fluke finishing fourth in a high rating Highway behind Partners. Perhaps has been flattered by heavy tracks though. 1. Rothenburg didn’t go around a horse last start but faces a very different set up here and rises 3kg.
How to play it: Texas Storm WIN ($14 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Texas Storm last start at Port Macquarie
|Race 4 - 1:20PM BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
2. Frosty Rocks should find the front in this, which looks the key to his winning chances. He has been devastating on the two occasions he has led this preparation and been disappointing in the two starts he hasn’t found himself dictating. Last start at Rosehill the three-year-old was heavily supported after belting his rivals at Warwick Farm the start prior, clocking very fast time, but sat outside of Vienna Rain and didn’t quicken when the pressure went on. It’s certainly worth noting that it wasn’t an easy day for leaders either. Now fifth up, I’d expect Glen Boss, who is having his first ride on this horse, to be given the instructions to let the son of Your Song rip and bust his rivals up. He is worth another chance with that in mind.
Dangers: Terrified of 11. Zing. It doesn’t look ideal dropping back from 1800m to 1500m but she is a talented filly still very much on the up. Travelled deep throughout last start when fourth behind Fulmina and thought she battled on bravely. Gets in light again. 7. Steel Diamond and 3. Academy gave Frosty Rocks a touch up last start and are both in career best form. 8. Kateru chased home Strawb at Newcastle last start but there was no catching her as she smashed the clock late. She’d be favourite if she was lining up in this. 1. Lewis was an arrogant winner first up and looks to have returned better than ever as a gelding.
How to play it: Frosty Rocks WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Steel Diamond and Academy beating Frosty Rocks last start
|Race 5 - 1:55PM RANVET HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
If 3. Switched reproduces what she did last Saturday when nailed on the line behind very smart filly Tailleur, with a huge gap back to third, she’ll win this. Tailleur had to produce the best closing splits across the entire meeting to grab her in a photo. Switched lost a shoe in the run too. Has to cope with the quick back up for the first time in her 11 start career but over 1100m at Rosehill on the driest track she’ll have run on this preparation looks an ideal set up. The All Too Hard filly is too honest to not still give it everything she’s got on wet tracks but Brad Widdup has suggested she is much more comfortable on top of the ground, as her record does tend to suggest. The start prior to that she was gunned down by Outback Diva and Malea Magic having run along over 1200m on a testing surface. Back in fourth was subsequent winner Edison.
Dangers: You don’t see Mitch Newman come to town too often yet here he is with 10. Diva Bella, a 64 rater in a BM78 off an eight week freshen. It’s curious. This filly has jumped out of the ground at her last two starts. It’s provincial form but the form through those races has been franked since. 2. Zaniah showed plenty of desire to peg back the margin on Witherspoon first up and can only improve off that. 5. Varda towelled up her rivals at Canterbury last start but there is a question over the depth of that race and how flattered she was by the track. The map looks tricky for her from a wide draw too.
How to play it: Switched WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Switched going down narrowly last Saturday
|Race 6 - 2:35PM TAB LONG MAY WE PLAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
1. Bandersnatch travelled deep throughout at Randwick last start, off a five week break, and thought he was brave to finish as closer as he did. Like the way he still quickened at the 400m before feeling the pinch late as he was entitled to do. He’d have won with a more economical run, there’s little doubt about that. Finds another BM78 and should be able to roll across from the wide draw to find the front. From there it’ll just depend on how aggressive Brock Ryan is on 9. Mercurial Lad drawn to Bandersnatch’s immediate outside. The Gerald Ryan-trained three-year-old has shown in the past that he gets through wet ground but he is much more at home on firmer footing. It hasn’t been the most conventional preparation for this free-striding galloper but his best is too good for this grade.
Dangers: It all fell into place for 6. Edison last Saturday but he is even better on a firmer deck and won on the seven day back up last preparation. 5. Monegal has half a length to turn around on 10. Orcein from a fortnight ago but Orcein didn’t go around a single horse while Monegal looped the field. This is a different set up with Orcein drawn further out. 2. Night Of Power hasn’t yet brought his trial form to the races this preparation. 3. Word For Word was anchored by 60kg last start and had to duck back to the inside. Has perhaps been flattered by heavy tracks recently though.
How to play it: Bandersnatch WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Bandersnatch was brave last start
|Race 7 - 3:15PM KIA WINTER STAKES (1400 METRES)|
4. Trumbull showed great acceleration (fastest 400-200m) to put away a similar field to this last start in the Civic Stakes and if he jumps on terms once more, have mapped him to again park in behind the leaders – likely to be the Bott and Waterhouse-trained pair. It was Tommy Berry’s first ride on the son of Darci Brahma and he made it all look very routine. It was such a straightforward win for a frustrating horse. It had been a long time coming for the four-year-old with slow getaways, muddling tempos and traffic problems responsible for a run of near misses. Goes up 2.5kg from that win but those that finished around him also slide up in the weights too, so won’t be using that as an excuse if he happened to be rolled. His last four runs have all been at Rosehill where he boasts a 5:1-1-2 record.
Dangers: 3. Order Again would be the horse to beat if this race was over the mile. Just find it hard to make a case for him to turn the tables on Trumbull over 1400m. He is sure to run well again though, as is his stablemate 7. Dealmaker having been left flatfooted in the Civic Stakes. He wants a mile too. Love the way 6. Sambro worked to the line but he’ll need a more positive ride to win. 8. Noble Boy meets Trumbull 4kg better off for their June 13th clash while 9. Ready To Prophet is capable on her day.
How to play it: Trumbull WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Trumbull winning the Civic Stakes
|Race 8 - 3:55PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
There isn’t a lot between the main chances in this. 8. Inanup is worth a play if his price holds up around the double figure quote. The six-year-old is such an underrated horse and on the strength of his return behind Adelong, has come back as well as ever, if not better. He was flying at the backend of last preparation which saw him match motors with Roheryn and then take ground off Greyworm in a very slowly run race. Nash Rawiller had to drag Inanup back to last from the wide draw first up but from a much better gate, can settle a lot closer. His last 600m of 34.59s was 1.5L faster than the second quickest (Punters Intelligence), really running through the line late. The 1200m second up is perfect and he won last preparation off a month freshen between runs.
Dangers: Lightly raced three-year-old 11. Kordia offers a different form line and can only come on from his first up win off a year long break. This is harder again but he does look progressive. Huge chance with the only knocks the price and the start he’ll give away. 2. Embracer peaked on his run first up at a meeting that wasn’t leader-friendly. There hasn’t been a lot between him and 12. Superium at their previous meetings and the latter plummets to 53.5kg. The dry track could see Superium find his best form. 3. True Detective beat Superium in the steward’s room a year ago. He is flying beating Trumbull last start but not sure what to make of him four weeks between runs. 7. Prime Candidate’s chances have been dealt a blow by the draw.
How to play it: Inanup EACH WAY ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Inanup’s second to Adelong last start
|Race 9 - 4:35PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
9. Charretera doesn’t win out of turn, in fact he is winless for 14 months now, but hasn’t been beaten far first and second up. In the latest of those he should have finished closer having been held up on the fence. Have got little doubt he can turn the tables on 6. Monte Ditto on that run. For all of his convictions, the four-year-old has a very good record over 1200m (6:1-2-2). Suspect that’s why the astute Snowden yard have kept him to that trip third up. The son of Epaulette handles all surfaces but is suited back onto firming footing coming off a heavy track run at Randwick. Performs well at Rosehill and in a very open closer, could creep out to double figure odds late.
Dangers: 13. Partners is a fascinating runner down on 50kg after the claim of Brock Ryan. He’ll be bowling along out in front and his rivals won’t want to let him give them the slip turning for home. Brings Highway Handicap form and was weak late last start but really zipped through the middle sections to establish a winning break, and ran good time. 1. Stella Sea Sun was given a peach by Jason Collett last start to nail Lillemor. It was a blanket finish but a repeat of that sees her in the finish again and she gets a very handy 3kg claim. There wasn’t a lot between 4. Malea Magic and 5. Accelerato last start.
How to play it: Charretera EACH WAY ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Monte Ditto and Charretera last start
All the fields, form and replays for Rosehill on Saturday