Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
A number of talented new season three-year-olds will step out to contest the $150,000 Listed Rosebud (1100m) on Saturday at Rosehill Gardens, potentially staking their claims at a Golden Rose tilt. The rail is out 3m the entire and the track will race in the good range. The first is set to jump at 12pm.
|Race 1 - 12:00PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Keen on the chances of Jetgirl having destroyed her rivals at Bathurst last start, winning by over six lengths with a sustained display of speed. It’s hard to knock her form prior to that either. Two back she was too slick at Dubbo while in her two runs prior to that she ran sixth at Hawkesbury behind Golden Hits, not beaten far, and paired off with Miss Celebration again at Dubbo where there was a sizeable gap back to third. Miss Celebration won two more on the bounce after that for Gerald Ryan. Excited to see what the Dean Mirfin-trained mare can do here in town from barrier 1 and Blake Shinn riding. Catch me if you can!
Danger: Bon Allen will likely be eye-balling Jetgirl in the run and they can fight out the finish if they don’t bring about the undoing of one another. He beat Happy Mo two back at Muswellbrook before being run down late by Roman Typhoon in a Highway last start over 1100m. Expect Lifesaver to bounce back from a couple of disappointing efforts to round out his last campaign. His best is good enough and is trained by Matt Dunn. Table Mountain’s best chance will come if the leaders do overdo it in front as we saw him get out to the mile last campaign. Could find the 1100m too sharp first up so looks a risk as the early favourite.
How to play it: Jetgirl WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Jetgirl living up to her name at Bathurst
|Race 2 - 12:35PM FAIRFIELD RSL CLUB HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Am going to give The Macallan another chance. All the signs were there for him to be winning last start after a very encouraging debut for Chris Waller, having formerly raced in New Zealand. He was heavily backed for one. The case to forgive him is that the leaders really charged along and fell into a hole early which left the second wave of horses, of which he was one, exposed a long way from home. As it turned out, horses smoking the pipe out the back swept home to fill the trifecta. We can get a line from Sweet Victory who finished alongside The Macallan after a similar run in the race and we’ve seen her since, bouncing back to run a close second last Saturday, albeit back against her own sex. He shouldn’t be too far away in a race lacking speed too.
Danger: Nicci’s Gold probably should have won last start. We’ll never know what she’d have done if she saw daylight but Jason Collett, who sticks with her on the back up, had plenty of horse underneath him. Did she tick the distance box there? That we don’t really know either. She won’t find a more suitable 2000m race though, that much we can say. The knock is the price. She looks skinny odds. Trafalgar bounced back to form when out in trip third up last start. Expect him to hold his form now and Sam Weatherley, who gave him a lovely ride there at Canterbury, partners with the six-year-old again.
How to play it: The Macallan WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
There were excuses for The Macallan last start
|Race 3 - 1:10PM ST JOHNS PARK BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Gwenda Markwell’s four-year-old Excelsior has managed to slip under the radar going into this race despite looking like he is going as well as ever. First up he boxed on bravely only to be collared by Seahampton on the line, that was the day when the back half of the winners were sweeping down the outside and he was closer to the inside. Oria, a subsequent Saturday winner herself, finished behind her in third there too. Then second up he was never on the track at Rosehill behind Paret but didn’t shirk his task to finish seventh beaten four lengths. The other big tick is that he was scratched on Thursday from his home track of Kembla Grange to tackle this. That’s as good a lead as any. Maps to settle in the first couple from the inside draw and Rachel King rides.
Danger: Island Missile chased in vein last Saturday as the leaders just kept running to fight out the finish. He lost no admirers though and can turn the tables on Bergerac courtesy of a big weight swing and a different shape of race. It’s the right kind of race for both Snitzel Day and Travancore but they are hard to catch. Throw Zourkhan into everything as he tends to race well fresh. he ran second to Sedanzer first up last preparation.
How to play it: Excelsior EACH WAY ($14 TAB Fixed Odds)
Excelsior boxing on bravely behind Paret
|Race 4 - 1:45PM DOOLEYS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Punters certainly haven’t missed Sweet Scandal in early betting, backing her in from an opening quote of $5 with TAB Fixed Odds to now be the $3.50 race favourite. Chris Waller is well represented in the race but she does look the pick of them and gets the services of Hugh Bowman. The Sepoy four-year-old has won three on the bounce and although all of those were at midweek level, the emphatic manner of her latest victory suggests she is ready for that next step. Not only does she take bad luck out of the equation by racing on speed, she gets better every time she steps out so if she improves again off that, she’s the horse to beat here.
Danger: Mandylion couldn’t quite match Irithea last start when running one-two, which had plenty to do with being first up where as Irithea had the benefit of two runs under her belt. She paraded with plenty of improvement and the four-year-old mare bolted in a Warwick Farm second up last campaign, which was her first race preparation, albeit on a soft track over the mile. This pair will run well again from on top of the speed. Istria hit the line sweetly first up behind Oria, who ties in the form with a number of these including Bella Success and Our Malambo. What do we do with Seahampton after her inexplicable shocker last time out? Forgive a good horse one bad run? Has trialled okay since.
How to play it: Sweet Scandal WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Sweet Scandal making it three straight
|Race 5 - 2:20PM CAMPBELLTOWN CATHOLIC CLUB HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Trekking or Tactical Advantage? Tactical Advantage or Trekking? It’s going to divide punters but I lean the way of Trekking. The sealer was re-watching Trekking’s latest trial at Randwick where he looked particularly strong. He was gelded last preparation and went to the paddock on the back of a really dominant win at Warwick Farm. He only beat Spending To Win and In Times Of War but it was the style of win that suggested he’s finally ready to fulfill his early promise. That was only his second win having won so well on debut at Rosehill. He ran third in the Rosebud behind Menari on this weekend last year before finishing 1.5L off Merchant Navy in the McNeil at Caulfield. Talent-wise I don’t think there is a great deal between Trekking and Tactical Advantage and although weight doesn’t often swing me one way or another, it’s hard to ignore the 7kg difference on this occasion.
Danger: Tactical Advantage looked the winner of the July Sprint a long way from home first up. He trucked into the straight before letting down with a burst of acceleration that none of his rivals could match. Punters Intel reveals a 10.90s split between the 400-200m which was a length quicker than anything else in the race. We’ve seen enough of him now to know dry tracks are the key to him. He has seen six for three wins and three seconds. Coincidentally, all three of those seconds were by 0.2L too. In one of them he was a tragedy beaten. Like Trekking, he’ll tuck in behind what looks a hot speed and get his chance. Expecting the leaders to carve each other up so look out for Dal Cielo and Sir Plush late.
How to play it: Trekking WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Trekking’s barrier trial win at Randwick – 30 July
|Race 6 - 2:55PM SMITHFIELD RSL CLUB ROSEBUD (1100 METRES)|
Keep coming back to Plague Stone. We’ve had the benefit of already having seen him as a three-year-old where he was a brilliant winner of the Rosebud Prelude. The margin reads half a length but Punters Intel reveals he ran his last 600m in a slashing 32.66s and the overall time was 4.5L quicker than the older horses on the same day. He was his own worst enemy as a two-year-old, beating himself on a number of occasions by doing plenty wrong in the run. There is a stack of speed engaged here which should allow Hugh Bowman to do exactly what he did first up in letting Plague Stone find his feet, settle into a rhythm before unleashing the devastating sprint we know he has got. Don’t forget he ran second to Written By in the Blue Diamond Prelude which is as strong a form reference as any of these resuming horses have.
Danger: The last time Sandbar raced on a good track he paired off with Written By to fight out the G2 Pago Pago. Like what we saw from him in his one Warwick Farm trial. It’s a sticky draw for him so perhaps we’ll need to see a different side of him, ridden conservatively, to win this. Happy to play Plague Stone and put Sandbar forward as the main danger but to be honest, any one of these could win without surprising. Ringerdingding won really impressively on debut at a two-year-old beating Wagner before not much else went right. A number of wide draws cost him any chance of winning again. Liked his latest trial too. He’s the knockout here at big odds. Could also entertain Outrageous as he looks suited by the speed up front.
How to play it: Plague Stone WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Plague Stone winning the Rosebud Prelude
|Race 7 - 3:35PM BANKSTOWN SPORTS PREMIER'S CUP PRELUDE (1800 METRES)|
Can make a strong case for Emperor’s Way despite the form guide reading otherwise. There is more to his finishing positions than the form guide suggests. In fact, in the Winter Challenge, where he ran ninth, his last 600m of 33.97s was identical to that of the winner Mister Sea Wolf who was one of the early favourites for this before being scratched. The stable are keen to space his runs to keep him fresh. Back to Emperor's Way, coincidentally, his last 200m split, as also revealed by Punters Intel, was identical too (11.53s). Emperor’s Way flew through the grades last preparation, winning five of his seven starts, which ended up with him knocking off a Listed race at the end of it. He’s up to this level and looks ready to fire now third up out in trip.
Danger: Eight of the 11 runners engaged here come out of the Winter Challenge. One of the exceptions is race favourite Carzoff. Really want to oppose him at the odds though. Dark Eyes can improve sharply back out to a more suitable trip being able to race back on top of the speed. Keep him very safe. Green Sweet again caught the eye last Saturday slipping home his last 600m in sharp time behind Godolphin import Avilius.
How to play it: Emperor’s Way EACH WAY ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
The case for Emperor's Way to turn the tables on Mister Sea Wolf.
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 8, 2018
|Race 8 - 4:15PM CANTERBURY HURLSTONE PARK RSL CLUB SPRING PREVIEW (1400 METRES)|
Confident that class will see Prized Icon in the finish here. It will be just the second time he has ever raced outside of black type company in his 26 starts. And that was at start number two as a two-year-old when third to Scarlet Rain over 1000m. It’s easy to forget he is a two-time Group One winner and placed in a further four as well. Thought he looked nicely in here with 59kg after the claim of Sam Weatherley. The wide draw might turn a few off but with Flow and Show A Star on either side of him, there’s every chance he slots in behind those two. He ran second to Lanciato first up last preperation, before running in Group Ones and Group Twos over the entire autumn, and Kris Lees has indicated he’s a bit more forward this time in.
Danger: It might pay to forgive Invinzabeel last start when he was expected to win the Winter Challenge. He sat outside of the leader there and didn’t let down like he did behind Dreamforce the start prior. He can bounce back ridden with cover again. There’s generally not a lot between him and Flow. The two had meet twice prior to last start (where Flow had a 3L margin) and there was a combined margin of 0.4L between them. Flow is a chance again but $3.30 isn’t a price I want to be taking, especially with Show A Star unlikely to hand up the front. I Am Serious has only had seven weeks off and kicks off over 1400m which suggests she mightn’t need the run like we’ve seen from her in the past when resuming.
How to play it: Prized Icon WIN ($9 TAB Fixed Odds)
Prized Icon running second in the Carrington first up last time
|Race 9 - 4:55PM CLUBSNSW HANDICAP (1350 METRES)|
Now he has been gelded we can back Paret with the confidence of knowing the inconsistency that plagued his early career is a thing of the past. He charged to the line first up behind Star Of Monsoon, who he should be able to turn the tables on here, before diving through a narrow gap for Hugh Bowman to win second up out to 1400m. Hughie sticks with him here again. He steps up again in grade but it’s easy to get the impression that we still haven’t seen anywhere the best of this horse yet. He has always had the talent. The odds are no spoil but we’ll stick with him as he takes the low road to group races over the spring. Just hoping Gitan and Mr Tickets roll along at an even enough tempo as to not disadvantage him too much.
Danger: Star Of Monsoon was outstanding winning first up before flattening out a touch second up, albeit in a race where the first three home came off his back down the middle of the track. Out to 1350m looks the right progression for him now and he maps to get a very cosy run, landing in the box seat without having to spend a penny early. Ghostly charged to the line first up at Canterbury behind Smartedge and took the scalp of (a luckless) Star Of Monsoon last preparation. There isn’t much between the pair.
How to play it: Paret WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
"Stick with him as he takes the low road to group races over the spring."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 9, 2018