By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is in the True position and the track is in the Good range.
|Race 1 - 11:55AM ST JOHNS PARK BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
8. Savoury looks a colt worth following through the grades on the strength of his debut win at Canterbury. Given he is a son of Savabeel, to win over 1100m around the tight circuit of Canterbury suggests he’ll measure up in this field out to 1400m. His half-brother Twinspier ran in the ATC Derby earlier this year – albeit finishing last! Savoury was confidently supported in betting too. The margin was only narrow at the finish but there was plenty authority about the way he loomed half way down the straight before never surrendering the front. With the three-year-old allowance, he gets in well at the weights relative to his main rivals. Brenton Avdulla sticks and from another inside draw should be able to tuck in behind the leaders as we saw first up when he trailed Coco Cuber. He doesn’t have the runs on the board compared to some others here but he has immeasurable upside and willing to gamble that can get him home.
Dangers: 5. Adana’s first up run last campaign was the best of his preparation, when taking late ground off Vegadaze at Rosehill over 1400m. Tipping it’s no fluke that he resumes with the same assignment ahead of him. The difference being he’ll have to do it on a firm track as opposed to a soft track. The four-year-old went on to contest Group races after that. Has won one from 13 starts, so as the early favourite it’s hard to dive in with any confidence. 3. Wimlah charged her final 200m last time out, with Punters Intelligence revealing a 11.15s closing split, the quickest in the race. Likely to drift back again. Has big claims but could be looking for the mile now? 9. Subedar won stylishly at Kembla on debut. Keep him safe, especially if the money comes again.
How to play it: Savoury EACH WAY ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Savoury’s winning debut at Canterbury
|Race 2 - 12:30PM CAMPBELLTOWN CATHOLIC CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
5. Haut Brion Her “has come back a special horse” in the words of Chris Waller after she won again last start. That pretty much sums it up. The mare is absolutely flying and should win again as she marches towards black type company. She won comfortably at Canterbury first up, beating Wimlah, before Sir Elton was presented as the testing material at Randwick last time out but she breezed past him in the straight and won with gears still up her sleeve. She put the race away between the 400-200m, with Punters Intelligence revealing a 11.06s split, and that was without Blake Shinn even breathing on her. Misteed ran a distant second there and subsequently rolled True Detective. Haut Brion Her rises to BM88 grade here but drops back to her own sex. If there are any niggles, it’s staying at 1200m (she got out to 1400m quickly in her first preparation) and the dry track having won on two soft decks.
Dangers: On dry tracks, 2. Taniko is a different horse on top of the ground. The Godolphin mare found the fast lane at Randwick two back, recording a dominant win, before thundering home behind Bon Amis last start in a race dominated by those up front. Bon Amis and Goldfinch ran the quinella after setting the pace while You Make Me Smile, after settling third, ran fourth. Taniko settled 10th and ran third producing a last 600m of 32.47s. Haut Brion Her will want to be looking over her shoulder as Taniko will be rocketing home again. 1. My Xpression hasn’t yet brought her NZ form from across the ditch but is a two time Group winner and just got pipped by Avantage at her fourth start. 7. Connemara will run well again but lacks killer instinct. Can 4. Charlayne reproduce her Randwick win from back in May?
How to play it: Haut Brion Her WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds) and 5,2 QUINELLA Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Haut Brion Her dominating last start
|Race 3 - 1:05PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 PLATE (1800 METRES)|
14. Isadora Twinkle would’ve been fighting out the finish with Pat’s Nipper had she got the breaks last start in a Highway over 1500m. The Emma and Lucy Longmire-trained mare has hit a purple patch of form and this looks the race to cash in. The start prior she was five weeks between runs and 1800m and back to 1400m and despite the trip being a touch too sharp, she chased gamely to run second. Prior to that little freshen she was again luckless when going down in a photo at Wagga over 1800m. She couldn’t get clear having ducked up the fence looking for runs. Go way back to June 2018 and she ran second to Nahuel at Newcastle over 1850m. She was beaten a long way but it does highlight how suitable this trip sets up for her now. Hoping Kathy O’Hara can settle a touch closer than where he typical see her given the middle draw.
Dangers: On bad luck, 3. Onemore Sapphire has seen his share of dead ends lately. Despite that the four-year-old rarely is far away from the finish. The son of Onemorenomore got his dues at Grafton two back in a Class 2 but deserves to knock off a Highway. He came widest in the same race as Isadora Twinkle last time out but just gave away too much of a start. He made his run with 2. Black Wand , another that has to be respected give his performance there. He is on trial at the trip but gives the impression he’ll get it. Happy to side with that form line for this but want to keep Tamworth galloper 4. Delete safe. Just missed on his home track last start while two back was beaten by Seeingisbelieving at Scone.
How to play it: Isadora Twinkle WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Isadora Twinkle was luckless last time out
|Race 4 - 1:40PM SMITHFIELD RSL MISSILE STAKES (1200 METRES)|
All being equal, 4. Alizee will be winning. Despite her three Group Ones coming over the mile (x2) and 1400m, she’s an explosive sprinter when trained like one. We saw that last campaign where she toyed with her rivals over 1200m, albeit against Husson Eagle and Fell Swoop, before two months between runs saw her explode again, this time in the Expressway Stakes easily accounting for 1. Le Romain. She travelled into the race so sweetly, looking the winner a long way from home. Her form tapered off at the end of the campaign but that was out in trip and with the fresh edge knocked off her. She is a tank of mare tipping the scales near 600kg but James Cummings will have screwed down given this is her Everest audition. We saw everything we needed to see from her in two trials. I’ve got no doubt that she is one of the better sprinters we have in the country at the moment.
Dangers: We really don’t know where the ceiling is with 2. Vegadaze. He progressed from a Canterbury maiden to four starts later giving The Autumn Sun as scare in the G2 Hobartville. He was done no favours by tearaway leader Miss Fabulass in the G1 Randwick Guineas but stuck on okay under the circumstances. Has looked outstanding in his two trials. There is no denying that Le Romain is a genuine Group One animal (he has won three of them!) but now as a seven-year-old he’s in that second tier from the very top. Trialled in his typical no fuss manner. 5. Invincible Gem won the Missile in 2017, beating Le Romain, and that’s not the first time she has produced first up. Last preparation was the worst she has gone fresh. Perhaps the 1200m is a touch sharp for her now.
How to play it: Alizee WIN ($1.55 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Alizee’s latest trial – Randwick July 30
|Race 5 - 2:15PM CANTERBURY HURLSTONE PARK CLUB ROSEBUD (1100 METRES)|
They’ll charge along here and that should suit race-fit backmaker 5. Lucicello. Tommy Berry will have no choice but to flop her out the back, especially from the wide draw, but ridden like that she produces her explosive best. Her latest two winners, albeit in lesser grade, have been stunning. The first of those was on the Kensington surface at Randwick before repeating that at Rosehill over 1200m. The pace up front played to her strength but with a similar set up here, she’s well suited again. There is so much quality about the way Lucicello closes off her races with Punters Intelligence revealing a last 600m of 33.22s last time out, some five lengths quicker than the next best in the race. Her last 200m was a dominant 11.06s. That win suggested she was up to stakes grade and now she gets the chance to prove it. Back to 1100m the slight query.
Dangers: 7. Cardiff and 9. Escaped (not without some hope at odds) map to carve each other up in front which will allow 2. Dawn Passage to make his run with Lucicello. He was brilliant winning over the Randwick 1000m on debut before starting favourite in the Inglis Millenium. He was no match for Castelvecchio but with clear running probably runs second, beating home Accession. On that Accession form reference, 3. Athiri gapped Accession when she was on debut (over the Rosehill 1100m) before embarking on a Melbourne campaign, starting hard in the market in the Blue Diamond. Like the way she won her recent Randwick trial. 1. Anaheed pays the full penalty for her last start Group Two win carrying 60.5kg. 8. Superium’s trials suggest he has improved lengths on what he did in his debut campaign.
How to play it: Lucicello WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"It was the win of a filly destined for stakes grade and now she gets the chance to prove it."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 8, 2019
|Race 6 - 2:55PM DOOLEYS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
7. Sweet Deal went deceptively quick in front last time out and was entitled to knock up late when running a fading fifth behind Smartedge and a luckless Notation. She was four weeks between runs there too. Prior to that the five-year-old mare had run fifth and fourth at Eagle Farm. The first of those saw her only 1.4L off subsequent Tiara winner Invincibella and either side of her were Noire and Con Te Partiro. On the back of that she was sent around favourite in a Class 6 but got a long way back and Smartedge proved too strong at the finish. Expect Nash Rawiller, who rides the mare 1kg over weight, to drive her out before taking a trail behind6. Got Unders, which is the perfect scenario for her. Sweet Deal has a handy Rosehill record (5:2-0-1) and finds an extremely winnable race here.
Dangers: 9. Valentino Rossa has been desperate for a dry track. All four of this six-year-old’s wins have come second up in his preparation but five weeks between runs gives him the chance to find his best. Maybe that’s a stretch but it’s that kind of race. 4. Fortensky will run top four again but lacks the killer punch to put one of these away while 8. Drachenfels refuses to run straight at the moment. He is close to another win however, not sure he’ll get the speed he needs to first, settle and then secondly, run home over the top. 1. Top Striker tackles 1400m for the first time in three and a half years! Early days he was ridden on speed, keen to see how he goes getting back and ripping home over this trip. Forgive his last two runs (no luck and then muddling tempo). 3. Articus is a sneaky hope 1400m off a freshen. Nothing would surprise in this to be honest.
How to play it: Sweet Deal WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
Sweet Deal knocking up late last start
|Race 7 - 3:35PM BANKSTOWN SPORTS CLUB HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
3. Desert Path could play a minor role over the spring for trainer Chris Waller on what we’ve seen from the import to date, and if that’s the case, he should go close in this. The five-year-old had won three from seven before arriving in Australia and although he is yet to win here, it’s only a matter of time. First up last preparation he ran last at Canterbury, tacking on very late, before jumping out of the ground second up to just miss behind Goathland on Chipping Norton Stakes day. He was the only runner in the race to break 35s his last 600m (34.75s). After that he struck a heavy track at Rosehill before having no luck at Bendigo. Liked what we saw from him late first up at the mile at Caulfield suggesting he is on track to replicate the second up run he produced last time in. He is one dimensional but 1. Scholarly and 11. Ulusaba should ensure a truly run race.
Dangers: 6. Costello is cherry ripe now third up but that’s there for all to see, hence the short price. He was scratched from an easier race last Saturday when $5 was available but now in a harder race we have to butter up at $3.50. There was nothing between him and subsequent winner 9. Matowi last start and Costello is the one with so much more upside being early in his campaign. On Matowi, it was an inch perfect ride from Tommy Berry to get him home last week. As far as lasts go 5. Nahuel’s was one of the better ones. He just found the 1500m too sharp second up. 2. Loveissili has four lengths to make up on Costello but he was five weeks between runs and won three on the bounce prior. He’s better than that. Scholarly could pinch one of these this campaign but still might need this run to reach his peak. 8. Our Winnie? Well, she continues to miss the start.
How to play it: Desert Path EACH WAY ($13 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 8, 2019
|Race 8 - 4:15PM CABRA BOWLS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
9. Dawn Dawn is an underrated mare. On paper, her last preparation looks pretty non-descript but first up she ran in a Group Three at Caulfield (won by Winter Bride) and after drifting back to near last from the wide draw she hit the line as well as subsequent Oakleigh Plate winner Booker. Then second up, where she started $2.35 favourite ahead of Newsfan, she pulled up with an issue as she was tipped straight out and has undergone surgery since to remove bone chips. Like the way this daughter of All Too Hard has trialled this time back and Tommy Berry should be able to cuddle her up from the draw giving her the same run she had when she blew Easy Eddie away at Rosehill three runs ago. Prior to that she went down narrowly (tempo related) to 3. Prime Candidate. Would like to see a late market push but don’t underestimate her.
Dangers: Terrified of 1. Black Magnum given the way he has returned. He belted his rivals at Warwick Farm first up despite being a query on the heavy track before again dominating his rivals at Canterbury, this time from outside of the leader. Clear The Beach didn’t dawdle in front there so to still quicken in the manner he did was outstanding. Had always pegged 2. So Taken as a lengths better horse on wet tracks but she disapproved that in Group company last start and wins the race had she drawn a gate. One quiet trial but did the same last prep before running third behind Multaja in the G3 PJ Bell first up. Prime Candidate was flattered by the slow tempo at Rosehill but was first up for over a year and can only improve. 8. Oxford Tycoon finally got a dry track last start but never saw daylight and should have won.
How to play it: Dawn Dawn EACH WAY ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
A reminder of what Dawn Dawn is capable of – June 2018
|Race 9 - 4:55PM DOLTONE HOUSE MARCONI HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
5. Cinquedea deserves to be favourite in this field but odds on? Hoping we get at least black figures. This is a slightly harder race grade wise but he certainly doesn’t meet any horses with the upside of his conqueror Phaistos. The Godolphin galloper simply proved too good for this four-year-old over the same track and trip but the pair had the rest of the field covered comfortably. Cinquedea, trained by Richard and Michael Freedman, is in peak form after recording crushing victories at Goulburn and Newcastle prior to last start. Can see Kerrin McEvoy taking a trail behind 8. Oneness with 4. Mapmaker kicking up from inside. Spring is only just around the corner, in fact it’s only three weeks until the G1 Winx Stakes, but the stable have found the perfect race for Cinquedea to knock off before the better races roll around.
Dangers: 2. The Avenger has been running around in Queensland recently where he has been racing well without winning. He went close last start just failing to run down Auerbach while prior to that came from a long way back to finish third to Looks Like Elvis (subsequently second in the Coffs Harbour Cup). His six runs at Rosehill have resulted in duck eggs but he hasn’t been that far away in the majority of those. 6. Bye See, now trained by Robert and Luke Price, did nothing first up but improved sharply second up last prep. Her second up record reads 4:1-2-0 and she beat Travancore to win her only crack over the Rosehill 1500m. 8. Oneness will make his own luck but has had plenty of chances. 9. The Promise didn’t do enough at Kembla to recommend her here but she’s better than that.
How to play it: Cinquedea WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Cinquedea being chased down by Phaistos