By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out in the True position and the form has been done for a Good track.
|Race 1 - 12:50PM BLAKES MARINE CLARENDON STAKES (1400 METRES)|
2. Rock My Wand is having her seventh run in a very busy first preparation but this race looks to have fallen into her lap. Not thrilled with the price but try as I might, just couldn’t find anything to beat her. Last start the Matthew Smith-trained filly ran home strongly behind Away Game in the G2 Percy Sykes over The Championships. Punters Intelligence shows that she ran the fastest last 600m in the race too, clocking 36.12s to finish alongside See You Soon and Dame Giselle. She was forced to concede her rivals an impossible start from the wide draw. In this small field from the low draw expect Jason Collett to have her box seating. Has to transfer her wet track form onto a firmer surface but she’s the horse to beat, as the market suggests.
Dangers: 1. Formentera sat outside of the leader and won well at Warwick Farm last start. Should be able to stretch to 1400m and maintains his association Tim Clark. 3. Rousseau was only a length away in second and given it was his debut, has scope to improve sharply. Being a son of So You Think, the extra ground will suit. The level of control Formentera gets in front depends on Victorian colt 4. The Defiant One given how easily he led over 1100m when on debut at Geelong. He faded late but it was a Heavy 10. 5. Saffiano didn’t have any tactical speed over 1100m on debut. Respect him if for no other reason than he is backing up 10 days later. Not a typical Chris Waller move.
How to play it: How to play it: Rock My Wand WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Rock My Wand last start in the Percy Sykes
|Race 2 - 1:25PM THE KOKODA BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Love the way 3. Laure Me In found the line at Warwick Farm last start over the mile having settled last from the wide draw. Punters Intelligence shows his 35.77s last 600m split was three lengths faster than the next best while he was the only runner to break 12s the last 200m. When trained by Tony McEvoy the five-year-old won dominantly over 1800m at Flemington (January last year) and Laure Me In looks to be wanting the extra trip now. On the strength of this gelding’s excellent debut for David Pfieffer back in December, didn’t think he’d go winless in four subsequent starts but over 2000m with James McDonald in the saddle, from a draw that should allow him to settle no worse than midfield, this looks a very suitable assignment to break through for his new yard.
Dangers: 4. Shadow Flight overcame being horribly disadvantaged at the weights in the G3 Neville Sellwood last start to run a bold race finish a close up third to Night’s Watch. The six-year-old is in career best form but jumps up in the ratings now and is four weeks between runs. 11. Welsh Legend safely held Shadow Flight on the Kenso a couple of starts back but middle distance horses of this class can mix their form. The frustrating mare still has to be a hope in this. Where does 13. Loves To Rock fit in here on the back of two dominant provincial wins? He has 2.7L to make up on Shadow Flight from a recent clash but meets him 3kg better off, is hard fit and will roll forward. 1. White Boots and 2. High Opinion rate mentions.
How to play it: Laure Me In WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Laure Me In last start at Warwick Farm
|Race 3 - 2:00PM THE TOBRUK BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
16. Donandkim was trapped wide, shuffled back in the run and blocked in the straight all in the same race last start! That was behind Indy Car and Icebath, the early favourites for the Hawkesbury Guineas. Hoping things are a lot less problematic for the Gerald Ryan-trained three-year-old here. First up Donandkim ran an inglorious ninth at Warwick Farm but it was a non-event. He went back from the wide draw with 61.kg on his back and never figured. Betting said he’d need the run too. Last preparation, his first for Ryan, he won three from four, albeit at country meetings, with the defeat a game third in the G3 Spring Stakes at Newcastle behind Asiago. There doesn’t look to be much separating a lot of these horses ability-wise so the map is key and Donandkim should get a lovely run.
Dangers: 10. Grand Piano drops back from the G3 Carbine with Entente and Bottega franking the form further last Saturday. He's a chance in this but just can’t get him as short as the opening market from the tricky draw. Maybe 13. Word For Word needed the run first up but thought she was entitled to do more. However, she's very consistent if nothing else, finds J-Mac and draws soft. 15. Designated will improve sharply back on top of the ground.
How to play it: Donandkim EACH WAY ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Donandkim didn’t have anything go right last run
|Race 4 - 2:35PM KILLAHY EQUINE HAWKESBURY CROWN (1300 METRES)|
It’s a far cry from the $20+ we got about 6. Bangkok second and third up but here we go again with the Allan Denham-trained mare. Drawn barrier 1, expect to see the five-year-old much closer. She isn’t a one dimensional back marker. On the five other occasions she has drawn inside she has settled third, second, fifth, seventh and fourth. All three of her runs have been exceptional this time back. First up she was luckless behind Fasika and I Am Excited before making up a stack of late ground in her last two. The latest of those was behind White Moss and again Fasika, with that mare backing up to run third in the G1 All Aged Stakes. The tempo was gentle but Punters Intelligence highlights that her 34.86s last 600m was the quickest across the entire meeting. In very well with 56kg under the race conditions.
Dangers: This is the last hurrah for two time Group One winner 1. In Her Time. She is also exceptionally well in with 60kg given her lofty benchmark rating. Her runs have been much better than they read on paper. She struck two wet tracks in Group Ones before being hammered at the jump last Saturday. Imagine Hugh Bowman leaves nothing to chance and rolls forward. The quick back up is foreign to her but given a lot of her best form is fresh, it’s some concern. 2. Irithea and 4. Multaja ran the quinella in this race last year. Irithea and Tim Clark look a great pairing as she is a free rolling mare that needs to get the rest chasing. This is the right set up for 7. Dyslexic while 11. Strome next best.
How to play it: Bangkok WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Bangokok hitting the line in the Sapphire
|Race 5 - 3:10PM HAWKESBURY XXXX GOLD RUSH (1100 METRES)|
This appears to be a very targeted preparation with 2. Graff in order to get him winning again ahead of loftier Queensland targets. The four-year-old wouldn’t have been out of place in the G1 TJ Smith Stakes yet here he is in a Listed race with the blinkers going back on having won his most recent Newcastle trial very impressively. He has drawn soft and Hugh Bowman rides. Two of Graff’s three wins have been over the Rosehill 1100m. Sure, he carries 59kg but he has the class to overcome that. First up last preparation he was beaten a length by Redzel and Pierata with Nature Strip and Sunlight back in fourth and fifth. Punters Intelligence shows the sprinters ripped home off a gentle tempo with Graff clocking a 32.06s last 600m, second to only Pierata. Graff is winless in his last 10 starts, after winning three straight at the start of his career, but hasn’t found a race this suitable.
Dangers: The pattern that has started to emerge with lightning fast mare 15. Agent Pippa is that she responds to being kept fresh. She’ll give a big sight here having drawn to the inside of 10. Villami which looks troublesome for that filly. 5. All Too Royal is a nostril away from being unbeaten first up from five cracks. It’s been nine weeks since he ran fourth in the G1 Oakleigh Plate. 1. Tactical Advantage and 6. Handle The Truth will bounce back on top of the ground. There have been some big form reversals from that Rosehill meeting on the 28th already. 8. God Of Thunder’s fifth in that same race was better than it read on paper.
How to play it: Graff WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
BEST BET 🚨
"First up last preparation he was beaten a length by Redzel and Pierata."@BradJGray says Graff looks well placed to get that winning feeling back at @rosehillgardens @tabcomau @Leesracing @ausbloodstock2 pic.twitter.com/R9ivJMY6lx
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) April 23, 2020
|Race 6 - 3:45PM BLACKTOWN WORKERS CLUB GROUP HAWKESBURY GUINEAS (1400 METRES)|
Convinced that 3. Eleven Eleven is the best horse in this race and that we haven’t seen anywhere near the best of him yet. Just wish he drew a gate. Still, there’s enough in the price to gamble that Nash Rawiller can slot in. The speed looks genuine so they might break up early. Eleven Eleven’s first up run was a touch hidden with the son of Fastnet Rock running the fastest 600-400 and 400-200 before peaking on his run. Understandable, especially on a heavy track. The query I’ve got is whether Greg Hickman’s three-year-old is still going to be half a run short, especially straight out to 1400m but last preparation in Queensland highlights how talented he is with three consecutive placings behind winning machine Alligator Blood. They were all on Good tracks. Over to you, Nash.
Dangers: 4. Bandersnatch smashed the clock first up last preparation at Hawkesbury. Imagine this has been a target race, albeit now on his home track instead. He’ll roll along in front with the benefit of the inside draw, but will need to absorb plenty of pressure. Not as taken with the Indy Car/14. Icebath form line as the early market. Icebath goes close with any luck last start though. 7. Rule The World did it both ends to win at Rosehill first up last preparation. 5. Groundswell is backing up after racing like he wants 1400m while 10. Battleground’s race sense is finally catching up to his ability.
How to play it: Eleven Eleven WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Don't let the merit in Eleven Eleven's first up run go unnoticed!@BradJGray puts the 3YO under the Punters Intelligence Spotlight ahead of Saturday's Hawkesbury Guineas @tabcomau @HickmanRacing pic.twitter.com/ndo8voE8Xh
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) April 23, 2020
|Race 7 - 4:20PM CHALKER ACCOUNTANTS HAWKESBURY GOLD CUP (1500 METRES)|
6. Girl Tuesday didn’t look at all comfortable first up in the wet conditions. Forget she ever ran. Has since been back to the trials with the four weeks between runs and despite running last, love how she trucked through the line without Nash Rawiller barely even breathing on her. Back on top of the ground, expect her to bounce back in a big way. She is a talented mare. The five-year-old was outstanding last preparation bolting in first up beating Bangkok and Cradle Mountain before finishing alongside Avilius at weight for age in the G2 Chelmsford taken out by all-the-way-winner Samadoubt. Having won her first four races, she looked destined for the top. She lost her way after that but is back now and we’re getting a very tempting price to forgive her excusable first up blemish.
Dangers: This is a lovely race for 16. Live And Free with 53kg on his back but, and it’s a big but, he has always improved sharply second up. However, 1500m first up and having won a trial recently in the manner of a horse ready to go, perhaps John O’Shea has the five-year-old more forward than in past preparations. 14. Manolo Blahniq ran well against the pattern at Caulfield last start and warrants respect. 8. Amanagiri needs to be hard fit to win races given her front running style and should be coming to her peak now third up. No denying that she was disappointing last start though and will have 7. Archedemus for company in front but otherwise, looks to get her chance. This race is right in 1. Gaulois’ hitting zone despite the 59kg impost.
How to play it: Girl Tuesday EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Girl Tuesday’s latest Rosehill trial
|Race 8 - 4:55PM THE GALLIPOLI BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
13. Nordicus is knocking on the door this time back having savaged the line in two runs. The blueblood gelding (Dundeel x Miss Finland) is now under the care of Anthony Cummings and he has the four-year-old flying. First up he matched motors with stablemate, and subsequent impressive Listed winner, Indy Car over 1100m before staying at 1100m on a heavy track at Warwick Farm. His 35.31s last 600m was the quickest of the entire meeting. That’s despite his earlier form suggesting he wasn’t fond of wet tracks. He jumps into Saturday company here but third up on top of the ground and out to 1300m, he’ll take holding out with any luck from the carpark draw. Nash Rawiller, who rode Nordicus first up, will just need something to take him into the race turning for home.
Dangers: 11. Miss Einstein has won three of her six starts and is a lightly-raced mare worth following. She hit the line alongside Subpoenaed first and second up last time in before recording two dominant wins. 6. True Detective warmed up late in the Arrowfield and strikes a very suitable race. Finds James McDonald and draws beautifully. Still need to be convinced of his desire, however. 4. Rancho Notorious isn’t without a hope at big odds having been bogged down in the wet first up. 2. Tricky Gal is a beauty but worried if she’ll be sharp enough over 1300m second up off a heavy track win. 12. Twentyfour Carat maps to get the run of the race.
How to play it: Nordicus EACH WAY ($12 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Nordicus hitting the line at Warwick Farm last start