By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Epsom Day Randwick on Saturday.
The rail is out 3m and form has been done for a good track (albeit some rain is forecast for Saturday morning).
|Race 1 - 12:20PM KEENELAND GIMCRACK STAKES (1000 METRES)|
2. Every Rose looked very professional in her trial win for Mark Newnham. The two year old Choisir filly mustered to sit behind the leaders before Josh Parr woke her up and she put her rivals away. It was the fastest trial of the two-year-old set (including the colts), clocking 50.08 for the 847m. She displayed everything you want to see from an early youngster, tractability, she settled in the run and showed strength through the line. The sealer is the draw, with barrier 2 affording Parr the chance to ride her in the same manner he did in her trial, having her tucked in behind the speed. Every Rose looked the standout filly from the Kensington heats so it’s no surprise she has come up favourite. She is a half to Smartedge and Academy, both winners out to 1400m.
Dangers: 4. In Flanders’ heat wasn’t run in particularly quick time (51.40) but there was plenty to like about the way she attacked the line. She’ll be out the back from the draw but the Godolphin juggernaut can never be underestimated. 9. Stellar Pauline is a full sister to Group One winner Secret Agenda and although she was niggled in her trial, liked her response to finish alongside 11. Ticket To Ride. Peter and Paul Snowden train her and they finished first and third in this race last year with Catch Me and Mayaaseh. Zoustar filly 3. Fall On A Star wasn’t the cleanest away in her trial but found the line strongly under riding to beat 7. Rose Sauvage with that runner travelling wide throughout. 10. Super One Susie the best smokie. She didn’t get out until late in her trial.
How to play it: How to play it: Every Rose WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Every Rose winning her trial – September 23
|Race 2 - 12:55PM ARROWFIELD BREEDERS' PLATE (1000 METRES)|
Found it hard to split 7. Global Quest and 4. Beyliks but siding with Global Quest from the better draw. What both of these colts had in common in their trial wins was how effortlessly they did it. Chris Waller trains Global Quest and you know that for a two-year-old to make it to the races this early from that yard, they are absolute naturals. The son of More Than Ready showed good tactical speed to cruise through to take up the running before James McDonald hardly moved on the youngster in the straight, winning with what looked like plenty still up his sleeve. Not sure what we can read into J-Mac riding Global Quest over Beyliks, having partnered both in their trial victories but it can only be positive that he rides Global Quest. Imagine Global Quest will bounce out and be in the first half dozen. Waller won this race with Reloaded two years ago.
Dangers: Beyliks also showed good muster early in his trial to tuck in behind the leaders. Will he get that same luxury here from barrier 9? Either way, loved the action of this colt as he let down, kidding to his rivals as he went through the line. There is plenty of quality about this son of Lonhro, out of Ottoman a two-year-old winner on debut herself. 3. Belieber might be Beyliks’ ticket across to near the speed with the Gai and Adrian-trained galloper going straight to the front in his heat and slipping home in a very fast last 600m of 33.66s, easily the quickest of the trials. It was a powerful finish from the front-runner. 10. Nitrous established a lead very quickly in his trial and was another very natural racehorse, with 11. Postcode closing well for second. 1. Barbaric is a half to Diddles, and is by I Am Invincible, so he should be very slick. He did it both ends in his trial.
How to play it: Global Quest WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Global Quest looked a natural in his trial – September 23
|Race 3 - 1:30PM GOW GATES HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
We’ll learn everything we need to know about 4. Dealmaker on Saturday. He is easy to pot having won one from 17 but his three runs back this campaign have been excellent. He returned a gelding and now having found the perfect race fourth up, want to give him the chance to prove he can put a field away. He hit the line powerfully behind Sweet Deal and Prime Candicate first up over 1400m before attacking the line second and third up. The latest of those he had his momentum baulked at the top of the straight. Punters Intelligence tells the story with his 800-600 ranking the quickest before his 600-400 ranked ninth, he was then the quickest home the last 200m clocking 11.87s with a final 600m of 35.31s (second quickest). He is pretty one dimensional but hoping/praying James McDonald can have him a touch closer from the low draw.
Dangers: There is good speed here which looks to suit Dealmaker but he has three lengths to make up on 5. Greysful Glamour. The grey mare was very brave from in front last start, rolling along at a fast clip and nearly pinching it. She looked to relish being aggressively ridden. 3. Penske, a rock hard fit 6. Shock Alert and 7. Got Unders will all be gunning for the front too though. Penske is much better than what his two runs back suggest. First up he ran in the G2 Tramway and pulled up lame while last start, in the same race as Greysful Glamour and Dealmaker, he was two pairs back. He’ll bounce back when allowed to stride forward. The wide run was blamed on 8. Irikandji’s ninth last Saturday.
How to play it: Dealmaker WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Dealmaker last start at Randwick
|Race 4 - 2:05PM DARLEY FLIGHT STAKES (1600 METRES)|
2. Probabeel put the writing on the wall in the Tea Rose that she is cherry ripe for the mile. The Kiwi filly’s last 600m was comfortably the quickest in the race (34.64s) some two lengths quicker than 1. Funstar’s while Probabeel’s last 200m was particularly dominant in clocking 11.58s compared to Funstar’s 11.88s, so again two lengths difference. Of course Probabeel was entitled to finish harder given she sucked up on the fence while Funstar sat in behind the leaders and got very keen in the run when the speed slackened drastically at the 800m mark. That forced Funstar to pop out and expose herself 600m from home. Back to Probabeel, though, her first up run was a ripper too hitting the line behind Libertini and Villami in the Furious. Even last autumn as a two-year-old her run in the Sires’ behind Microphone screamed miler. Getting $2.20 in what looks a two-horse race is inviting.
Dangers: Funstar shouldn’t really be doing what she is over the shorter trips. Her pedigree says stayer. She’s a half to Youngstar and all of her other siblings got out in trip. She was beaten by Yao Dash first up, with plenty of improvement in her, and that horse went on to run fourth in the Golden Rose. There was merit to her Tea Rose win as touched on given she was there to be run down. Chris Waller has always held this filly in very high regard and she’ll be better again out to the mile. Has more tactical speed than Probabeel. Now which filly nabs a Group One placing? 4. St Covet’s Spirit was beaten 5.5L in the Tea Rose but at least brings some semblance of Group form. Looks to have the speed to lead this race too.
How to play it: Probabeel WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT (surprise, surprise)
Funstar vs Probabeel in the Tea Rose Stakes
|Race 5 - 2:45PM BISLEY WORKWEAR PREMIERE STAKES (1200 METRES)|
It’s a leap of faith with 6. Brutal but at the odds, happy to gamble that he can take the next step as a four-year-old. That’s the general profile with O’Reilly gallopers so to already have the CV of Brutal shows his quality. He won a Doncaster Mile at just his seventh race start! Yes, he had the luxury weight of 49.5kg but the start prior to that he ran second to Winx in the G1 George Ryder and only got 1kg off her. It was a distant second but it was another three lengths back to Dreamforce in third. First up last preparation over 1200m he was trapped wide throughout and went down fighting to Eckstein. He’d have won with a softer run. His run in the Canterbury Stakes last campaign might look disappointing on paper but he did finish alongside Pierata in an on speed dominated affair. Loved his latest trial alongside Alizee, where he went straight to the front and they zipped home the last 600m in 32.92.
Dangers: 2. Classique Legend had his chance in The Shorts first up but it did prove he can match it with the likes of Pierata and Redzel. The slow early tempo saw a very bunchy finish where 4. Graff was right their hammers in fourth. Classique Legend will certainly improve from the outing, I just can’t get him as short as $2.25. That’s the only knock. 1. Osborne Bulls has been held back by Godolphin up until this point but only two weeks out from The TAB Everest, he’d be very forward for this. He savaged the line first up over 1000m first up last preparation, with his last 200m particularly strong. That set the trend for his campaign, running four more Group One seconds. The small field, with 3. Home Of The Brave running along in front, will see him settle within striking distance.
How to play it: Brutal WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVEN
Brutal trialling with Alizee – September 27
|Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Happy to forgive 1. Samadoubt last start in the G1 George Main. He is much more comfortable on top of the ground, as it suits his style to pinch a break on his rivals. Tim Clark was very conservative on him throughout too, and tipping on a good track he’ll slip him more leather to get his rivals chasing. First up this six-year-old caused a boilover in the G1 Winx Stakes beating Happy Clapper before proving that was no fluke (albeit aided by the leader bias of the day) beating Avilius by a space in the G2 Chelmsford which is historically a very strong pointer to this race. The horse is clearly flying and shouldn’t have too much trouble burning off 6. Angel Of Truth, to find the front. He ended last campaign with three runs over this trip, two on wet ground for a ninth and a fifth but wedged in between them was a dominant Canberra Cup win on a Good 4 surface. 9. Verry Elleegant beat Samadoubt home last start but got wet conditions to suit and still only beat him by 0.3L.
Dangers: 8. Youngstar is sneaky flying at the moment and now out to 2000m, she gets her chance to show that. In all three runs back she has been no match for Samadoubt (beaten 3.6L, 4.8L and 1.5L). The latest of those was forgivable, flattening off staying at the mile third up. Verry Elleegant has looked every bit the stayer in her two runs back. Punters Intelligence reveals that last start her 400-200m split ranked the slowest of the nine runners, but she picked up late clocking the third fastest last 200m. The jury is still out on her, especially on a dry track, so can’t be with her as favourite. Don’t see how she deserves to be on what she has done this spring. Angel Of Truth will come into his own out to 2000m.
How to play it: Samadoubt WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"The horse is flying and can turn the tables on the favourite."@BradJGray expects this six-year-old to to lead all of the way at @royalrandwick on Saturday @BBakerRacing @Darby_Racing @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/sHpVUXgxJS
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 4, 2019
|Race 7 - 4:05PM TAB EPSOM (1600 METRES)|
1. Dreamforce lumps the top weight of 57kg and draws the outside, but that just might mean a better price about the highest-rated runner in the race. The last four winners of the Epsom have carried 57kg, 56kg, 57kg and again 57kg last year, which was Hartnell. Dreamforce (115) actually has a higher benchmark than Hartnell (113) when he won this race last year. The seven-year-old looks to have returned better again this spring, belting his rivals in the Tramway first up before flattening off second up on wet ground in the G1 George Main when second to Avilius. That’s the A plus form line for this race, as shown by recent winners Hauraki and Happy Clapper. Weight for age back to a handicap. What is so deadly about Dreamforce is his ability to quicken brilliantly from on top of the speed. He should land in the first two, pairing off with 11. Archedemus, which will give him his chance to skip away to an unassailable lead 200m from home.
Dangers: Have been cheerleading for 15. Cascadian since his Australian debut in the Show County over 1200m, where he clocked 32.31 for his last 600m, the quickest across the meeting. He was a month between runs in the Bill Ritchie and although he flopped out the back at the start, he didn’t attack the line late like you wanted to see. Maybe he felt the pinch fitness-wise given it was such a fast run race. For a horse of his class 50kg is a luxury. Just hope it’s not all a preparation too soon. Boban won the Bill Ritchie for Chris Waller in 2013 and 9. Kolding fits a similar profile. He should have finished second to Dreamforce in the Tramway first up and meets him 7kg better off. Is 14. Star Of The Seas classy enough to win an Epsom? Well, there wasn’t much between him and 4. Te Akau Shark in the Tramway. 3. Fifty Stars and 8. Mantastic are capable of filling a place at big odds.
How to play it: Dreamforce WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
Dreamforce winning the Tramway Stakes
|Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)|
Not sure what happened to 5. Stampede in the Wyong Cup but his run prior to that and two since have been outstanding. Back on August 17 he gave stablemate Wolfe a whopping 10kg when lumping 63kg and went down fighting. Two back he slipped clear of his rivals in the Kingston Town only to be collared by top class stayer Finche having camped on his back. Then last start in the Colin Stephen he proved too strong. No horses in that field would rate a mention in the Metrop but loved his strength through the line. It was his first crack at 2400m and Punters Intelligence shows his last 200m of 11.73s was the quickest in the race! This will be his third week in a row racing so he won’t lack for fitness. Adam Hyeronimus rides this horse so well and will be out to execute the same plan, stack them up in the middle stages and crank him up at the 800m. We’ll know our fate if he gets attacked early but he maps to be left alone which makes him very dangerous. He reminds me of Gai’s 2010 Metrop winner Herculian Prince.
Dangers: 12. Brimham Rocks bounced back to winning form in dominant fashion at Caulfield last start. Tipping it even surprised Chris Waller otherwise the six-year-old would’ve still been in Sydney tracking towards this race. He did SP $21 and beat So You Win, a horse that Stampede beat three back before he run fourth behind 6. Wu Gok and 8. Come Play With Me in the Premier’s Cup. 7. Big Duke powered late in the Kingston Town and loves the sting out, unlike 3. Grey Lion and 15. Scarlet Dream both prefer good decks. 14 Hush Writer relishes fast staying races, like the Newcastle Cup but looks unlikely to get that here. Promoting 2. Gallic Chieftain with the rain.
How to play it: Stampede WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
Stampede winning last week’s Colin Stephen
|Race 9 - 5:25PM SNITZEL SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
Would want to see market confidence before getting too carried away with 2. Signore Fox but he is a four-year-old that has still only shown glimpses of what he is capable of. The talent is certainly there. He ended last preparation a dominant winner of the Listed Daybreak Lover at Eagle Farm. His best is absolutely good enough to pick these up from the wide draw and have loved what we have seen from him in three trials trucking to the line. James McDonald has ridden the horse three times for three wins so it’s no surprise he stays with the son of Exceed And Excel. He also rode him all his trials. Signore Fox was set to resume weeks ago but Peter and Paul Snowden dodged a wet track, which suggests they didn’t want to waste a run. There should be enough speed for him to be thundering home.
Dangers: 8. Handle The Truth will bang himself out on speed and has won four from six in Sydney (albeit two in Highway Handicaps). The last time we saw him he gave Oxford Tycoon a touch up on a heavy track. Has trialled great. Look out The Kosciuszko! 13. Reelem In Ruby look to scramble in the last time we saw her but Bangkok went on to frank the form. Down in the weights, drawn low and off two nice trials, she is very hard to hold out. Tends to always be well found but rightly so given her record (7:3-3-1). 7. Strome beat Reelem last campaign. She found career best form and perhaps can go to another level again. Robbie Dolan knows the mare well and she gets in with 53.5kg. Will be out the back with 1. Miss Fabulass. Another mare I’m reluctant to pen. Class!
How to play it: Signore Fox WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Reelem In Ruby ($3.50) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Reelem In Ruby and Signore Fox met in their latest trial – September 27
All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Randwick meeting