Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Tancred Stakes day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The Rosehill track is rated a Good 4 as of Thursday afternoon and the rail is out 4m the entire with the first event set to jump at 12:30pm.
|Race 1 - 12:30PM THE SCHWEPPERVESCENCE (1400 METRES)|
The Mission won this race last year on his way to taking out the G1 Champagne Stakes and the race again shapes as a key lead in to the Sires and Champagne. One horse that has been crying out for 1400m is Futooh from the Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig camp. She ran 8 of 12 in the Magic Night behind Sunlight but her late splits were second to only runner up Cristobal (11.75s home via Punters’ Intel). She has been dogged by bad barriers in the four starts to date too so hopeful she can settle midfield from the inside draw before Michael Walker can pick his way through the field. In an even race, she’s a big shout at double figure odds.
Danger: Sweet Ava is another desperate for 1400m and has beaten Futooh home in her last two starts. She’s a big strong filly being the full to Menari so this trip will give her time to wind up. Brenton Avdulla jumps off her for Perfect Pitch though. Spin was very good in the Pago Pago, which was won in much faster time than the Magic Night. Aldo respect roughies Vega One and Ringerdingding out of that race too, but the latter has drawn horrifically again.
How to play it: Futooh EACH WAY ($16 TAB Fixed Odds)
Look for Futooh and Sweet Ava in the Magic Night
|Race 2 - 1:10PM THE DAILY TELEGRAPH NEVILLE SELLWOOD STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Arbeitsam was collared at the 200m in the Ajax last start but love the way he rallied on the line to fight back. He went down by less than a length in the end. It was the run of a horse desperate for more ground. The free-rolling galloper in the Waterhouse and Bott yard gets that here. We saw him out in trip last preparation and he was outstanding. One day at Rosehill over 1800m he put close to five lengths on Classic Uniform. He is a very fit horse now so expect Tim Clark to take no prisoners. In a race with only a handful of genuine winning hopes, he’ll be very hard to peg back.
Danger: One of those winning hopes is no doubt One Foot In Heaven. What we know about this import, who is on debut for Chris Waller, is that he has run in two Arcs, is a dual Group Two winner and beat Harlem early in his career. He has had three trials but it was hard to get a guide on what exactly was under the bonnet. Resuming over 2000m and the early money trail suggest he’s set to run a big race. Mackintosh was much better when ridden cold last start. That was 1300m straight out to 2000m too.
How to play it: Arbeitsam WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Arbeitsam over 1800m last preparation
|Race 3 - 1:45PM E-GROUP SECURITY STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Burning Passion was very good first up in the Liverpool City Cup fighting out the finish with Crack Me Up and Care To Think. In his favour there was the sting out of the track and the 1300m trip. He faces a dry track and is back to 1200m but this race does set up nicely for him from the inside draw. Expect Oxford Poet and Isorich to take up the running with Burning Passion stalking in behind. This six-year-old didn’t run a bad race all last campaign for Mark Newnham and there’s no reason to think he won’t be in the finish yet again. His established pattern is to have a gap between runs, with a trial to keep him ticking over. That’s how he tackles this.
Danger: Isorich was brave first up off a two month break. He tracked a really hot speed behind Sprightly Lass and was entitled to drop off quicker than he did. They’ll know he is there again with the run under his belt. Nieta clocked the fastest last 600m of the entire day first up at 32.81s (via Punters’ Intel). She was just set an impossible task. The 1200m looks to be on the outer limits of her range.
How to play it: Burning Passion WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and Isorich WIN ($12)
Burning Passion in the Liverpool City Cup
|Race 4 - 2:20PM JIM BEAM EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500 METRES)|
There was less than a length separating Daysee Doom, Oregon’s Day, Eckstein, Prompt Response and Dixie Blossoms in the Coolmore Classic! That worries me. The outlier is Foxplay. On paper, her run in the Canterbury Stakes looks plain but she got home quite well at the end having been set an impossible task from the tail of the field. Punters’ Intel reveals the work she did from the 800-600m to make up some ground before he final 200m was second to only the winner Happy Clapper. She has drawn to be closer in the run here and was only 0.3L off Daysee Doom first up over 1300m. She meets Daysee 2kg better for that and is double her price. There is no doubt she is racing below her absolute best but back to mares company, she can still run a big race.
Danger: Daysee Doom can’t do any more than win. She was the one sticking her neck out in the Coolmore when it was there to be won or lost and she again gets on pace favours here. Eckstein was very good in the Coolmore and seems to be a mare that thrives on her racing. Certainly don’t expect her to go backwards off that which has her right in the mix again. Zanbagh has won this race the past two years but has a task of turning around her poor form.
How to play it: Foxplay WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Look at Foxplay’s very late work in the Canterbury Stakes
|Race 5 - 2:55PM TRICOLOURS RACING & SYNDICATIONS TULLOCH STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Mongolian Marshal was outstanding winning over the mile at Ellerslie last time out. It’s important to note that it was on a Good track too. Murray Baker holds this three-year-old in high regard and seeing the Kiwis measure up in the Rosehill Guineas last week, as we’ve now come to expect from them, bodes well for his chances in the Tulloch. He missed a run in the Guineas as first emergency but it might be a blessing if he was to win this on his way to The Championships. Looks ready for 2000m now and possesses a turn of foot. Drawn to get his chance.
Danger: Primitivo is still a maiden but he is already Group Three placed (Spring Stakes) and is crying out for this extra trip. He thundered to the line in the Canberra Guineas behind Assimilate over 1400m last start. He is straight out to 2000m here but this would’ve always been the plan from John Thompson. Cliff’s Edge ties in the Alister Clark form having run well in last week’s Guineas. Tangmere a roughie for the multiples.
How to play it: Mongolian Marshal WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Primitivo’s slashing Canberra third
|Race 6 - 3:30PM KIA TANCRED STAKES (2400 METRES)|
Siding with the 2016 Melbourne Cup winner Almandin in the G1 KIA Tancred! He was very good first up with 60kg before being held up in the Australian Cup last start, finishing hot on the heels of Gailo Chop. Almandin was suited by the fast tempo there, unlike Gailo Chop, and found the fast lane on the inside so there were a few things in his favour but he looks ready to peak now third up. When Lloyd Williams makes the trip to Sydney, it certainly pays to follow his horses. His recent strike rate is outstanding. It’ll no doubt be a tactical affair and there is none better in staying races than Kerrin McEvoy.
Danger: Gailo Chop was very good taking out the Ranvet last week but he faces a very different task here over 2400m and on a dry track. That’s certainly not underselling the form he is in though. He is good enough to overcome those things but he’s skinny enough given the queries. Include the rejuvenated Auvray in everything on the back of a dominant Sky High win. He can only get better out to 2400m.
How to play it: Almandin WIN ($3.60 TAB)
Gailo Chop dominating last week’s Ranvet
|Race 7 - 4:10PM VINERY STUD STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Unforgotten bounced back in a big way in the Phar Lap Stakes after pulling up with issues first up in the Surround. She gave her rivals a start and a beating with Punters’ Intel revealing a 33.67s last 600m with her three closing splits all clearly the fastest in the race. She tore through the grades last campaign suggesting she was up to the better fillies so it was a relief to see her do it. It’s worth noting that Chris Waller won the Phar Lap with Foxplay and Winx recently and both were Group One winners soon after. Unforgotten is certainly trending that way too. She is three from three on her home deck and hopefully can settle at least with a couple behind her to make the task that touch easier. Especially given there isn’t an abundance of obvious speed engaged.
Danger: Danzdanzdance started favourite in the NZ Derby and kept trying to finish only 1.6L off Vin De Dance, who was very good in the Rosehill Guineas. She looks better suited in the Oaks but she’s tough and will be there at the finish somewhere. Aloisia (out of form?) and Alizee (will she run 2000m?) are also classy enough to win but both have different knocks. Hiyaam is the smokey given she looks the default leader.
How to play it: Unforgotten WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Unforgotten launching home to win the Phar Lap
|Race 8 - 4:50PM MOUNTIES 50TH BIRTHDAY DONCASTER PRELUDE (1500 METRES)|
If you are going to back Interlocutor in one race this autumn, make it this one. We haven’t seen him since Chipping Norton Stakes Day but it’s been a deliberate plan from James Cummings and mirrors last preparation, where he won so impressively second up off the same freshen. Breaking down the sectionals from his first up run in the Liverpool City Cup, he ran the fastest 400-200m split in the race (11.26s via Punters’ Intel) before blowing out to run the sixth quickest final 200m. He didn’t get a cart into the race and simply needed the run. That would have cleaned up him nicely for the Doncaster Prelude and his trial since was very good. He’ll get the right run from the gate and his preferred firm ground to show his acceleration.
Danger: The Newcastle Newmarket looks a key lead up and thought Shiraz was very good there running third. He ticked the 1500m box at the back end of last campaign too. There is also a case to be made for Mister Sea Wolf but Chris Waller’s leading hope looks to be in the shape of Cellarman. Is there a more improved race horse in Sydney? Probably should have won the Ajax last start.
How to play it: Interlocutor WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Notice Interlocuter blow out the last 200m first up
|Race 9 - 5:30PM SYDNEY'S WEST APP HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Really surprised at the odds on offer for Special Missile. He was heavily supported first up in the Newcastle Newmarket to jump $5 – and that was a Group 3. He didn’t win but thought he ran well enough to finish three lengths off Lanciato. Here he is second up as a fitter horse back to BM93 grade and he is $17! It’s a handy field, and I’ve got plenty of respect for Osbourne Bulls, but Special Missile certainly doesn’t deserve to be those odds. Expecting Blaike McDougall to be positive from the gate. I’ve mapped him to sit outside of Stonebrook in the run. The way he won five on the bounce last campaign – after being gelded – suggests he is certainly up to this level. Back him with a bit of confidence each way.
Danger: Osbourne Bulls was a tragedy beaten at very short odds at Kembla last time out. Brenton Avdulla didn’t do anything wrong – the gaps just didn’t come with the Street Cry gelding having drawn the inside marble. If there is a query it’s the inside draw again. He is a horse that likes to click through his gears in plenty of room. Stonebrook comes out of that same race and he too gets on pace favours here, as mentioned above. Three-year-old Beau Geste plummets in weight and fits into this race nicely.
How to play it: Special Missile EACH WAY ($17 TAB Fixed Odds)
Special Missile knocked up at Newcastle