Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Royal Randwick on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The rains have finally arrived. Randwick is rated a Heavy 8 at the time of writing these tips and although the forecast isn’t too bad now, expect the track to stay in that range. The rail is out 3m the entire with the first to jump at 11:25am local time.
|Race 1 - 11:25AM SPRING ON SALE HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
Dio D’Oro gets the nod in a very tricky two-year-old opener at Royal Randwick. On debut this Gary Portelli-trained colt ran second to Estijaab and we all know what she went on to subsequently achieve. After that he was beaten 4.4L by Performer in the G3 Canonbury and then ran third at Warwick Farm behind promising Godolphin youngster Couvre Lit. Both of his trials have been good, the latest on Monday. He has sat outside the leader in the last two times we’ve seen him and been found wanting a touch late. With King and Make ‘Em Cry taking it up, it should allow Rachel King to pop in for some cover. Throw into the mix that Medaglia d’Oro’s progeny generally get through the wet.
Danger: Beidi was impressive on debut for Chris Waller, slipping under the radar of most punters to win at $18 at Warwick Farm. Don’t think the drop back to 1000m from 1100m is ideal but the wet track will ensure the leaders won’t be zipping home to make it mission impossible for a horse like him. Make ‘Em Cry was a big winner at Kembla on debut back in January before going awful at his second start. That was too bad to be true. He showed plenty of improvement from his first to his second trial, the latter in which he matched motors with Ljungberg who ran second to Misteed on Wednesday. King has race fitness on his side while God Of Thunder only needs to bring his trial form to race day to be in the money. Blinkers go on him.
How to play it: Dio D’Oro WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Dio D’Oro on debut behind Estijaab in January
|Race 2 - 12:00PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Go The Gantry had no luck at all first up behind She Knows. There’s a case to be made that he should have run second. It’s been a long time between wins for the five-year-old but he is rarely far away. In his 11-run campaign last time in he placed in nine of them. The other important box this Gayna Williams-trained gelding ticks in the wet track. He has seen plenty of them racing on nine soft/heavy tracks for seven placings. No wins, but that’s unfortunately just true to his pattern. His record certainly makes you wary of backing him straight out but he gets everything to suit here.
Danger: Rumba Queen is on the five-day back up which is always a positive sign. She led all the way at Goulburn on Tuesday. Doesn't look to represent great value as the shorrt priced favourite now there are a number of scratchings though. Got Nothing has returned in great nick this preparation and should be at his top now third up. Has won on wet ground.
How to play it: Go The Gantry WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) and Got Nothing WIN ($6)
Go The Gantry’s luckless sixth first up
|Race 3 - 12:35PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Revenire has won two on the bounce now and both by authoritative margins. The Godolphin three-year-old has started favourite in all seven of his career starts and doubt that trend stops come Saturday. Tye Angland sticks having ridden him in both wins this time in and the son of Lonhro has won on a Soft 7 at Ipswich as a two-year-old. He has had a tickover trial since we last saw him at the races a month ago, which is a strategy James Cumming uses with a lot of his team with great success. There should be good speed here with Brook Magic running along which will give him his chance.
Danger: Brook Magic is a very good fresh horse and loves wet ground. She has trialled nicely on two occasions for trainer Joe Pride. She’ll, like always, give her rivals something to catch. The only query, and what stopped me putting her on top, is the 1100m. In her three previous first up runs she has tackled 1000m and they were are Warwick Farm (x 2) and Kembla Grange. The last 100m of a Randwick 1100m might find her out. Certainly don’t discount her though. She Knows lumped 62.5kg to victory in a Highway last start while prior to that ran second in the Listed Denise’s Joy at Scone. She is flying at the moment.
How to play it: Revenire WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Revenire putting his rivals away at Warwick Farm
|Race 4 - 1:10PM WINTER RACING HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Now is the right time to jump on Arajaa. This imported mare, with Chris Waller, has been excellent in her two Australian outings. She can count herself a touch unlucky not to have won last start when she was forced to weave a path through the field at Rosehill to be beaten only half a length at the finish. Despite a chequered passage she still ran home in the best last 600m in the race (34.98s via Punters Intel) as well as the fastest last 200m split (11.92s). There is a sense of time about her now third up. Her wet track form in France suggests she’ll have no problems handling Randwick come Saturday. She won a Listed race in soft conditions over 2000m about a year ago while she ran second on a heavy deck at just her second ever start.
Danger: Oklahoma Girl did enough last start having raced closer than we are accustomed to. She knocked up late to run sixth. What really brings her into the mix here is the wet track. She is 3:2-1-0 on heavy tracks and the second was a monster effort from the back of the field in The Roses at Doomben. She possess a sharp dash when ridden with cover so this race sets up well for her.
How to play it: Arajaa WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Arajaa’s last start effort was full of merit
|Race 5 - 1:50PM ATC OWNER BENEFITS CARD MILE (1600 METRES)|
I Am Serious was beaten last Saturday but her effort was still outstanding, with Punters Intel revealing she nipped home her last 600m in a slippery 33.73s. The four-year-old has won six of her 10 starts and three of those have been on rain-affected ground. The first of those two were at Taree and Muswellbrook in a maiden and BM55, when trained by Bob Haire, so given how good she has turned out to be it’s hard to get much of an insight from that. She did beat Just Dreaming in a Randwick Soft 6 back in October though. She has never seen a heavy but doubt it’ll stop her. She draws wide again but don’t mind that on a wet track, allowing Tye Angland to creep into the race when he wants.
Danger: We've lost Fierce Impact due to the wet track. That really means I Am Serious only has to handle the heavy track to win. If there are any chinks in her armour though, Our Gravano looks ready to fire now third up for Kris Lees having coming across from New Zealand. The wet won't be a problem and he raced well in limited room behind I Am Serious last week. Bastia should get control.
How to play it: I Am Serious WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
I Am Serious running last Saturday
|Race 6 - 2:30PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Subban is the one I want to be with at big odds. Bryce Heys trains this Savabeel gelding who has had five starts for two wins. The last two times we’ve seen him he ran third to Vontaine at Kembla and despite being beaten over 9L it was a very good run. He then raced at Randwick over 2000m where he bumped into the QLD Derby favourite Live And Free. Liked how he found the line there to run fifth beaten 4L at the finish. He’s had that grounding now with the run over 2000m. Has never seen a wet track but the NZ suffix provides some confidence that he’ll get through it and that will be made a little bit easier given he carries 52kg after the claim of Brock Ryan.
Danger: There is a real sense of timing about Jolly Honour third up and out to 2000m for the first time. He was beaten a long way by Gresham last start but that horse has since won again, not to mention had the race run to suit that day. This Reliable Man three-year-old was beaten half a length by Moss Trip last preparation which reads well now. With Tye Angland riding, suspect he is Chris Waller’s top seed in the race. Tunero has been thereabouts and should be again.
How to play it: Subban EACH WAY ($18 TAB Fixed Odds) and Jolly Honour WIN ($8)
Subban running fifth last start at Randwick
|Race 7 - 3:10PM STAYER'S CUP (3200 METRES)|
The old boy Destiny’s Kiss is racing as well as ever. He put in a couple of eye catchers first and second up before taking out the McKell Cup last start beating Naval Warfare. It’s easy to be put off by the weights if you just have a cursory glance with Destiny’s Kiss lumping 61kg while every other runner is on the minimum of 53kg but he’s actually very well off. He is a massive 25 rating points clear of the second highest rated runner which is Doukhan and 32 ahead of Richard Of Yorke. He won this two mile race, the Stayer’s Cup, back in 2014 with 59kg. Four years and eight Listed wins since, here is his rising just 2kg. Despite being quite a small horse he is a great weight carrier, and I haven’t even mentioned yet that he loves wet tracks…
Danger: Doukhan certainly won’t be beaten due to fitness. He has 13,830m under his belt courtesy of his five runs since late March, all over staying trips. He got nothing more than a pass mark at Flemington in the Ramsden last start but the wet track could see sharp improvement. Plot Twist and Richard Of Yorke ran the quinella in this race last year on a heavy 10. They can bounce back from disappointing efforts in the McKell Cup. The inform Red Dream next best.
How to play it: Destiny’s Kiss WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds)
Destiny’s Kiss winning the McKell Cup last start
|Race 8 - 3:50PM JUNE STAKES (1100 METRES)|
Glenall ran midfield at Scone last time out but his effort was outstanding given he knuckled badly at the start. Brenton Avdulla nearly went over the top of the handle bars. Not sure how he stayed on to be honest. Rider and horse dusting themselves off to be beaten only 4L at the finish by Too Excess. His wet form is there for everybody to see, and significantly, he has heavy track form at Randwick. As we know, a ‘Randwick heavy’ is next level again. On top of that, he is rock hard fit deep into a preparation, in terrific form and should be able to settle in the first couple. Koby Jennings has only ever had a sit on the four-year-old for Team Hawkes once in a trial before but all being equal, I’d be surprised if he isn’t right in the money. At the odds on offer, best of the day.
Danger: I Thought So went down a nostril at Randwick first up when stepping out for the Snowdens for the first time. He was heavily backed on that occasion suggesting he is showing plenty at home. The son of So You Think fits nicely into this with 53.5kg. Perizada ran fourth in that same race, also resuming, but it was an excellent return given she was trapped wide throughout. Her wet form can be hit and miss. Jungle Edge is a swimmer but is he going well enough to figure here? The month off might have given Mick Bell time to get him right again.
How to play it: Glenall WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Glenall’s forgivable effort at Scone (watch the start closely)
|Race 9 - 4:30PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
If the track was any worse than a Heavy 8 I’d be a touch cautious with Noire but happy to stick with her if it stays in that range. She was a shade disappointing first up, with Punters Intel revealing her last 600m ranked only sixth in the race, but Missile Coda never gave her rivals a look in leading all of the way. Perhaps the Tuesday trial flattened her a touch? No matter what excuses you can come up with, the bottom line is that she is a far better mare than that run suggested. It was all said before that run but her prior form around Pecans and Lanciato looks strong now. She was scratched from the Dane Ripper to tackle this race before heading north for the Tiara. If she’s going to be competitive in a Group One third up, she’d want to be winning this.
Danger: Star Reflection beat home Noire in that same race, running third. She was good having been held up half way down the straight. She is a fit mare now so that’s as well as she goes but that should be good enough for her to figure in the finish again. The wet track won’t stop her either. Her form prior to that behind Osborne Bulls, Quilista and Burning Passion reads well now. Savvan is a good fresh mare and ran typically well first up behind Savatiano. Expect her to run well again second up. Fragonard loves the wet while Travancore is the knockout if he gets the right breaks from the inside alley.
How to play it: Noire WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Noire (and Star Reflection) last start at Rosehill