By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick on Saturday.
The rail is out +9m from the 1600m to the winning post and +7m the remainder. The track is expected to stay in the heavy range.
|Race 1 - 11:30AM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
2. Rule The World led all the way on debut in posting a strong win at Canterbury. The son of Hallowed Crown had to work early to find the front. Like the way he gave his rivals the slip from the 400-200m with Punters Intelligence revealing his 11.72s was the quickest in the race. That was the winning section. His last 200m was 12.53s which was bettered by four other runners (one was subsequent winner Exceed The Stars) but he was entitled to knock up a touch late and Tim Clark was pretty soft on him to the line, with the race in his keeping a long way from home. He’ll relish the step out to 1300m and looks set to cruise across to control this race from the front again. The Waterhouse and Bott stable are plotting a path towards the spring staying features, just as they did at this time of year with Thinkin’ Big. Will pay to keep following him.
Dangers: 5. Frosty Rocks was the first horse under pressure in Rule The World’s race but the strongest home, clocking 12.04s his last 200m. Can’t afford to hit that flat spot again but the tempo of the 1300m will certainly suit. Being by Your Song, should get through the wet conditions. 1. Roman Wolf has no problems with the wet while 7. Siesta Key could measure up here. Won at Coffs Harbour on debut but savaged the line over 1000m.
How to play it: Rule The World WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
Rule The World winning on debut
|Race 2 - 12:05PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
5. Siege Warfare has only had three runs for Todd Howlett but like what we’ve seen from the former Victorian-trained gelding (Ex-Robbie Laing). First up he was nosed out at Newcastle over 900m despite travelling wide. He then found himself out the back on the tight Wyong track in a leader dominated race before again racing at Wyong third up but this time taking up a closer spot to run third behind smart pair Sir Elton and Lashes. Throw either of those two into a race like this and you’d be lining up to take any price. Has plenty of solid wet form from down south including an easy victory at Cranbourne in his only try on heavy ground. There’s good speed in this, as you’d expect from a 1000m Highway, so he’ll get his chance to rattle home.
Dangers: 8. Nevada Dane has tackled Highways his last two and his efforts have been a lot better than the finishing positions suggest. He was posted on both occasions. That shouldn’t be the case this week. Handles the wet and rock hard fit. Has to be thereabouts. 2. Syd’s Footprints has only seen good tracks but we do know he is fast.
How to play it: Siege Warfare WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
Siege Warfare’s Wyong third last start
|Race 3 - 12:40PM EVEREST CARNIVAL HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
6. Bare Naked Lady beat 4. Embracer fair and square at Warwick Farm last start and is considerably longer odds here. It’s a head scratcher. She even meets him 3kg better at the weights for beating him after the claim of apprentice Chris Williams. Embracer has won since then beating Nuke, with Nuke running second in a winnable race on Wednesday at Canterbury as favourite. Back to Bare Naked Lady, she drops to 1100m but gets the blinkers back on and she reacted brilliantly when they went on for the first time at her second ever start. It might be enough to coax that extra length out of her to turn a run of placings into a win. Maps to get a lovely stalking run tucked in behind what looks to be a very genuinely run race. Can’t see her missing top three.
Dangers: 8. Sir Elton is a very talented animal there’s no doubt about that. He gave his rivals a hiding at Gosford and then backed it up at Wyong. In the latest of those he shook off Lashes, a city winner herself having knocked off Kylease at Warwick Farm, back in January. Hugh Bowman takes the ride, his first back from a break, and there will be no chance for the champion hoop to ease back in. He’ll need to be right on his game from the very tricky draw. There’s some hope Embracer spears to the front and breaks them up allowing Sir Elton to take a trail. Otherwise, he’s likely to be posted wide. The blinkers come off as he still wants to overdo things a touch. His times suggest he is well up to this class but throw in the query around the heavy track, just not willing to take $1.85 to find out.
How to play it: Bare Naked Lady EACH WAY ($7 TAB Fixed Odds)
Bare Naked Lady getting the better of Embracer
|Race 4 - 1:15PM NATHAN'S FAMOUS HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
2. Monsieur Sisu finds the right race on Saturday. The four-year-old has been building towards another win and like that Warwick Farm-based trainer Paul Cave has so far resisted the urge to run over 2000m again. The mile looks to be Monsieur Sisu’s best trip. Last start he boxed away behind Commander and Toryjoy in a leader dominated affair. Of course, Torjoy franked the form last weekend. The start prior to that he ran second to Quackerjack where two subsequent Saturday winners ran third and fourth in Primitivo and No Escape. He’ll be at his top now fourth up and it’s certainly worth noting that he has won fourth up in both of his racing preparations to date. All three of his wins, meanwhile, have been on heavy tracks. He should go straight to the front, stack these up, and take running down.
Dangers: 5. Sweet Victory has 2.5 lengths to make up on Monsieur Sisu from last start (and meets him 1.5kg worse off with no Robbie Dolan here) but covered ground throughout so was entitled to feel the pinch late. That was the 10th time she has been rolled at $6 or shorter. The market tends to love her and she’s the favourite again. Becoming costly for punters. 3. Attention Run is an imported German mare now with Kris Lees. She ran fourth and fifth in Listed races at her past two efforts. Was aggressively ridden to lead her latest trial at Newcastle and split two subsequent winners in Condor and Fuji Fury. It’s trial form at the end of the day but want to respect this four-year-old’s class.
How to play it: Monsiur Sisu WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Monsiur Sisu’s last start third at Randwick
|Race 5 - 1:50PM RANDWICK MAYORS CUP (2400 METRES)|
1. Fanciful Toff relished the Randwick wet to win comfortably last start and he faces the same task here. The claim of inform apprentice Jenny Duggan sees him with just 0.5kg more than what he carried to victory there, holding off Terwilliker despite a whopping 9kg between them. Terwilliker wasn’t disgraced in last Saturday’s Stayers Cup, running fifth. The four-year-old only has to hold his form to win this same grade of race and is the most lightly raced of this field too. There is still upside. Duggan will roll across from the wide draw to sit on the speed in a race without an obvious leader. 9. Latin Light perhaps goes to the front with 50kg on his back. Regardless, Fanciful Toff should get it run to suit. The Melbourne stayers certainly have the wood on the Sydney staying form at the moment and don’t see that changing this week.
Dangers: 8. Our Candidate got a confidence-boosting win at Wyong in a set weights Class 1. We didn’t learn much about him there as he was entitled to win like he did (starting $1.26). However, we should only see the best of him now out to 2400m and on the bigger Randwick track. Yet to run on heavy ground but has soft form. He is a stayer still on the up so it’s easy to make a case for him finishing in the money here.
How to play it: Fanciful Toff WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Fanciful Toff was dominant last start at Randwick
|Race 6 - 2:30PM JHB SYNDICATIONS HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Another one for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace? Suspect 2. Dr Drill is the best one yet too. He is priced accordingly but looks a very talented stayer. The import has hit the ground running in his first Australian campaign and broke through for a deserved win at Flemington last start. He was dominant and displayed the ability to do it at both ends, quickening from on speed. The horses that ran second and third there have since run the quinella in a Caulfield race. Two back he was knocked off by Admiral’s Joker (a gelding with Mr Quickie form) where He Ekscels was a well beaten sixth. That horse of course knocked off So You Win last week at Rosehill. The majority of the speed engaged here looks to be from wide gates so there will be options for Kathy O’Hara to take a sit if horses are desperate to cross her. Otherwise, he would be equally comfortable sitting in the first two.
Dangers: Don’t be surprised to see a sharp form reversal from 6. Dagny. Her last two runs look nothing special on paper but Punters Intelligence reveals there was more to them than meets the eye. Her 400-200m splits have been sharp before peaking on her run. She finally draws a barrier here and can use that short dash to better effect. 1. Zourkhan didn’t fire a shot last start at Randwick. He had his favoured wet track too. He’s worth another chance. Thought 7. Top Prospect showed enough first up at Randwick and he was a second up winner over the Melbourne spring carnival last campaign, beating Etymology.
How to play it: Dr Drill WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Don't be surprised to see a form reversal from Dagny!
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) July 4, 2019
|Race 7 - 3:10PM RANDWICK COMMUNITY DAY HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
Like the set up for 9. Epic Dan here having loved the heavy conditions last start. He isn't the classiest horse in the field but he looks to be one of the better suited. The six-year-old sat up on the speed last time out, found a kick and just felt the pinch at the end of 1200m with Southern Lad getting home over the top. Back to 1000m on another wet track looks perfect. Five of his 11 wins have been over this distance including his latest win which was over Rebel Miss at Warwick Farm. Maps to get a stalking run and present at the right time to be in the finish again.
Dangers: If 3. Sharpe Hussler produces his explosive best here he’ll take holding out. He’s monster odds on the back of his inconstancies but his Rosehill win in July last year (when $51 into $16) was dominant. He has had another stint on the sidelines but his most recent Muswellbrook trial suggests he is ready to go. 1. Latin Boy is a 1000m specialist (8:4-0-1) but will need a touch of luck. 5. Diety is a handy sprinting mare and can only strip fitter from her first up third behind Spiritual Pursuit. Well found but hard to beat.
How to play it: Epic Dan WIN ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) and Sharpe Hussler WIN ($26)
|Race 8 - 3:50PM KENSINGTON HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
12. Charretera looked very comfortable in heavy ground at Randwick last start when going down narrowly to No Doubt. There was another 3.5 lengths back to 5. Conarchie in third. No Doubt hadn’t won for over 1000 days but he did bring reasonably strong form lines into the race in tougher grade. Charretera faces a very similar task here and can only run well again. The three-year-old knocked off Bare Naked Lady four back before two solid efforts at Warwick Farm, albeit in races where he looked to have his chance. It was the way he attacked the line in the wet last time out which has him on top in this. Christian Reith sticks with the son of Epaulette and should have him parked in behind the speed. Has only missed the placings in one of his eight starts and expect that trend to continue.
Dangers: 9. Ljungberg has won twice on heavy ground but the big red flag is that both were at Canterbury. Interestingly, the three-year-old has never raced at Randwick before, let alone on a rain affected version. He gets in well with 54kg after the claim of Sam Clenton. His recent River Bird/Call Me Royal form lines looks rock solid now. 7. Bangkok didn’t have any luck at all last time out. Happy to scrap that from her record and go off her second to Reelem In Ruby the start prior. Has handled heavy ground in the past.
How to play it: Charretera WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Charretera loving the wet to run second to No Doubt
|Race 9 - 4:30PM WINTER RACING HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
9. Misteed sliced her way through the pack to win stylishly first up at Canterbury. It’s taken a couple of preparations for Peter and Paul Snowden to get this filly’s career back on track but she looks to be humming now. The writing was on the wall after she trialled brilliantly at Rosehill on two occasions, before showing up fresh. She did find the fast lane at Canterbury that day closer to the fence, however, don’t undersell the win. She beat 11. Aim For Perfection. The case for Aim For Perfection turning the tables is she was last and had to swing widest. Punters Intelligence shows that Misteed’s last 200m was a slick 11.64s, compared to Aim For Perfection’s 11.92s. Aim For Perfection went two lengths quicker in the middle stages to tack on, in her defence. The price, her fondness for wet tracks and 52kg after the claim, sees me in Misteed’s corner. Even with a little query out to 1400m second up.
Dangers: Aim For Perfection didn’t show any early speed at all last start. It’s unlike her. She led at Newcastle the start prior to that. Was that just a blip in the record from a talented filly? The 1400m tempo should see her able to use the inside draw. 2. Notation and 3. Terminology met last start with the former relishing the conditions and the latter not looking comfortable at all. The race was run to suit the pair, dictating the pace. Notation cleared out with Connemara with a gap back to third. Notation is a bulldog of a filly building a terrific little strike rate.
How to play it: Misteed WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Misteed beating Aim For Perfection at Canterbury