By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick on Saturday.
The rail is out 4m and the form has been done for a Soft/Heavy track.
|Race 1 - 11:35AM NEWHAVEN PARK HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
2. Travest is a bet that comes with risks, namely that he’ll be last from the wide draw and stays at 1300m second up, but this three-year-old could potentially be a few pegs above winter company. The Tavistock gelding is two from two and was a dominant winner at Warwick Farm first up with the best part of his win undoubtedly his strength through the line. Punters Intelligence reveals his last 200m of 12.01s was two lengths faster than the next best while his last 600m also ranked favourable across the meeting considering it was the last race on a heavy track. Darleb fell in on the Kensington track on Wednesday, to half frank the form line.
Dangers: 4. Sweeping Statement was never really in the hunt at Canterbury last start when Varda led all the way. Her win prior to that was very strong suggesting she had come back better than ever. Drawn to get every chance. Reluctant to underestimate 9. Bazooka . 7. Papal Warrior and 1. Edison will run well but are hard horses to attack with any confidence as they look to have reached their level.
How to play it: Travest WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Did the clock back up Travest's first up win?
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) July 2, 2020
|Race 2 - 12:10PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
10. Tallis knocked up late in a Highway Handicap first up over 1000m back in May before running fourth at Gosford last time out behind Invincible Lad. He sat outside of the lead but was collared late. Second (Exceltic), third (Salina Dreaming) and sixth (In A Step) have all won their next start. Trainer Colt Prosser finds another 1000m assignment for his lightly-raced three-year-old gelding. Third up last preparation he was stretched out to 1100m in BM64 company at Rosehill when only beaten 2.6L behind Aquitaine, with Wandabaa in third. It’s a capacity field so he’ll have plenty of company on top of the speed but the barrier gives Brenton Avdulla, who rode him first up, a couple of options in the run.
Dangers: 16. Skara Brae has smashed the line in her last two starts to win by big margins. She’s a different mare to the one we saw at her first two starts. Happy to back Stephen Jones’ judgement that she is ready for this now. 9. Bad Boy For Love is back from 1200m to 1000m, which is not ideal for a horse that has raced well out to the mile but Gayna Williams has the horse flying. Just need the breaks to go his way as luck has deserted him. 18. Feel The Knight is no stranger to Highways and can only run well again. 13. Foxie La Belle and 15. Fair Dinkum will be flooding home at the finish while 5. Chazelles warrants respect too in an extremely open race.
How to play it: Tallis WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Tallis last start at Gosford
|Race 3 - 12:45PM GRUNT STANDING AT YULONG HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
It was hard to not be impressed with what we saw from Godolphin filly 10. Tailleur on debut at Gosford. The daughter of Shooting To Win looked sharp in a Hawkesbury trial a couple of weeks ago, splitting stablemates Varda and Roheryn, both subsequent first up winners. On that debut at Gosford she was backed as if unbeatable jumping $1.35 and after absorbing early pressure, kicked clear to win by four lengths eased down. Acumen had broken the track record earlier at the meeting, so the deck was racing fast, but Tailleur wasn’t to be outdone clocking a time only a length outside off the record herself. The price is no spoil but like what we saw from Kordia last Saturday, there’s every chance this half to Group winner Raiment is a touch too classy for these.
Dangers: 2. Switched is a bomb-proof filly. She draws to box seat, is hard fit now third up and is super honest. She has only missed the top three in one of her 10 starts and was only beaten two lengths in the miss. She is vulnerable to an up-and-comer because what you see is what you get with her but she can only run well. It’ll likely pay to follow 5. Best Stone over the winter but expect her to improve from the run, typical of John Thompson’s training style. 4. Hulk never looked likely last start in what looked a suitable race. Drops back in grade and trip, gets the blinkers and James McDonald goes on. 7. Tickler beat Stormy Rock fair and square on debut so warrants respect at odds.
How to play it: Tailleur WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Tailleur bolted in at Gosford back in January
|Race 4 - 1:20PM QUINCY SELTZER HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
7. Mr Dependable won’t get it all his own way in this but he’s adaptable enough to sit outside of the leader or even box seat. The four-year-old grey jumps in grade but gets weight relief slipping down to 54kg. He presents at his top now third up. First up he was posted wide throughout and boxed on to finish fourth behind True Detective before last start he was collared by Agassi in the last 100m. He’d had enough late. The wet tracks aren’t doing him any favours as his form suggests he is much more dynamic on top of the ground, enabling him to quicken from the front but his class is taking him far enough to still prove competitive. Finished third over the 1800m at Randwick last preparation but went way too hard in front as the $1.50 favourite. He’s ready to win.
Dangers: It’s a similar case to be made for 4. Matowi being third up and ready to win himself, but he doesn’t have the upside of Mr Dependable. He was a third up winner last preparation however, and looks to have returned just as well this time back. 5. Torjoy hasn’t had the right set up in her two runs this campaign. She has the talent to bounce back to form if she can find the front, which is when she races best, but the map here mightn’t allow of that again with 8. Dylan’s Romance another one to throw into the speed battle up front. Kathy O’Hara has ridden her in three of her five wins.
How to play it: Mr Dependable WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Mr Dependable last start at Randwick
|Race 5 - 1:55PM RANVET HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
5. Spaceboy is a one-trick pony but it’s a trick he has finally mastered this preparation. Can’t find a stack of pressure in this 1000m race so the three-year-old should get a degree of control. We know he likes to run his rivals off their legs so the tempo will still be strong but it gives Kathy O’Hara the options of when to pinch a little breather before putting the foot back to the floor. O’Hara has ridden him twice, both this preparation, and won them both, by a combined margin of 7.4 lengths. The Gary Portelli-trained speedster was aided by a rail friendly track at Wyong last start but he annihilated his rivals, albeit against Class 2 provincial horses. Wandabaa nailed him on the nail second up on the Kenso track and she has subsequently held that form in two runs since. Forget his blemish at Warwick Farm when rolled as an odds on favourite as he didn’t get into a controlling position at any stage. Strap yourself in and prepare for take off.
Dangers: 3. Lashes was disappointing on paper last start but she was posted deep the trip. Suspect we’ll see her ridden more conservatively back to 1000m and it might unlock that turn of foot we know she possesses. 2. Superium is desperate for a dry track and not sure about back to 1000m for him. Thought 6. Longbottom could have done more last start given how suitable the race was but will run well again with a similar set up.
How to play it: Spaceboy WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Spaceboy went like a rocket at Wyong
|Race 6 - 2:30PM TAB LIVE VISION HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
3. Elaborate has been up since February and is fronting up for the ninth time this preparation but he only needs to hold his form to win this. A last start second to Mount Popa reads as a strong reference for what is a very winnable BM78 over 2400m. The four-year-old was dropping back in trip to 2000m last start too, having chased gamely behind all-the-way winner 7. Terwilliker the start prior. The gelding, trained by the flying Richard and Michael Freedman stable, handles all tracks, can settle anywhere in the run and gives it everything he’s got. In his last two starts he has been forced back from wide draws but drawn lower in this, expect Nash Rawillier to tuck the gelding a pair or two behind the speed which certainly looks genuine enough for him to get his chance.
Dangers: 6. Tigre Royale has won two on the bounce and Ballarat-based trainer Archie Alexander finds another perfect race for the four-year-old. Has a terrific record over the trip (5:2-1-1) and handles heavy tracks (2:0-1-1). The likes of 11. Continuation, 12. Shangani Patrol and 13. She’s So Savvy slip into this race with just 52.5kg and 52kg, which see them all dangerously placed. Continuation looks ready to win now fourth up having closed well behind Crown Affair last start when perhaps half a run short. 4. Pursuit Of Honour a roughie for multiples.
How to play it: Elaborate WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Elaborate last start behind Mount Popa
|Race 7 - 3:10PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
1. Outback Diva beat a similar field to this last start and looks well placed to go back-to-back. The four-year-old jumped a few ratings points for that victory so the claim of Louise Day is a significant one bringing her down from 59.5kg to 56.5kg. There isn’t much of this pint-sized daughter of More Than Ready hence the extra importance. As it turns out, she gets in just 2.5kg over the minimum. She is building a great record, with four wins from 12 outings and on the strength of her win at Rosehill last time out reeling in Malea Magic and Switched, she appears to have returned better than ever. The trip looks to suit, with her two wins last preparation coming over 1300m and then 1400m, both by dominant margins. Should improve again now third up and is the horse to beat.
Dangers: Keep making excuses for 4. High Low Bet but she has had a few this preparation in her defence. She wasn’t in the best ground three back, was held up two back and then last start at Randwick produced the fastest 600-200 but couldn’t sustain her run. Drawn lower in this, she’ll be within striking distance. 9. Threeood’s run made headlines for all of the wrong reasons last start but if Joe Pride is happy to send the four-year-old around again, she’s obviously still showing all of the right signs and gets the blinkers back on. 5. Miss Redouble will be competitive, as she always is in this company.
How to play it: Outback Diva WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Outback Diva winning last start
|Race 8 - 3:50PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
It’s the time to cash in on 3. Handspun. This Godolphin mare presents here cherry ripe third up after two eye-catching runs. First up she savaged the line late behind Adelong, clocking the fastest last 200m split of the meeting (Punters Intelligence). That was over 1100m, a trip short of her best. Then second up she was jagged back to last from a wide draw and had to weave a passage through the field to get the better ground off the fence. She didn’t get a clear crack at her rivals but wound up late to pinch third on the line behind Monegal, and she franked that form line last Saturday. The drier the track the better for her. Should be able to position up closer and with even luck, she has a turn of foot to beat scoot past these.
Dangers: Interesting that Tommy Berry jumps off 2. Rari to ride Handspun. Maybe there is nothing in it. Can be dangerous reading into jockey bookings but it’s food for thought. Rari has only won one from 11 and suspect this run will top him off nicely for third up but he is a tough horse. Was coming again through the line first up behind Outback Diva. His best asset is his ticker. 4. Cristal Breeze arrived in Australia with a very low benchmark and took advantage of that first up winning a midweeker. Might find this a touch sharp going from 1200m to 1300m but finds James McDonald and has unknown upside. 7. Cuban Royale has been poking around in similar races to this all preparation and has been running well without winning.
How to play it: Handspun WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"With even luck, she possesses the turn of foot to put these away."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) July 2, 2020
|Race 9 - 4:30PM DRINKWISE MILE (1600 METRES)|
If 3. Agassi repeats what he did last start it should be good enough to win this too. That is a rather big ‘IF’ though. This is his 12th run of the preparation (but his first for a new owner hence the new silks) with last time out being his first win of the preparation. What are the chances he now goes back-to-back? The key is how similar the set up is for him. The same track. The same rating. The same trip. The same jockey. Drawn to get the same gun run tagging the speed. He reeled in Mr Dependable and there’s no rivals here with the upside of that horse, so despite rising 2kg, banking on him getting the job done again. At the price, it’s worth taking the punt that history can repeat for this Anthony Cummings-trained four-year-old.
Dangers: Liked how 1. Got Unders poked home last start over 1400m, clocking the fastest last 200m of the race (Punters Intelligence). There is another win for the old fella just around the corner. The last time he raced over the Randwick mile he ran a narrow second to Dealmaker. 10. Bigboyroy finished half a length behind Got Unders last start but was held up in the straight. Didn’t attack the line when he was clear but was 1550m back to 1400m there. He’s much better suited out to the mile here and J-Mac sticks.
How to play it: Agassi WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Agassi winning at Randwick last start
All the fields, form and replays for Randwick on Saturday