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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.

The rail is out 3m and the track will be in the heavy range.

1. Assault’n’bathory is easy to like in this despite having to carry the 58.5kg top weight. Forget the six-year-old ever ran last start as he pulled up lame. Prior to that he ran a fighting second to Dulette on heavy ground at Rosehill over 1400m. A repeat of that effort has him in the finish again here. The extra ticks are the blinkers on for the first time and Nash Rawiller going on board. The gelding is a one-goer from on top of the speed so will need Nash’s strength to lift him over the line when his rivals start peeling off his back. There’s arguably no one riding better at the moment and we know his ability in a tight finish. That last start effort was the first time in eight outings that Assault’n’bathory has missed the top four. He was a late scratching from last week’s Highway, still showing signs of lameness, but has got the all clear since.

Dangers: 8. Vertex has run placings in three Highways already. She handles wet tracks and gets the blinkers back on first up over 1400m, which signals intent. Has been running in tougher grade recently. She looks the best roughie. 7. Scarlett Missile won on debut but hasn’t saluted in 12 runs since. There’s nine placings in there though, including two thirds at her latest two outings, both in Highway Handicaps. Up in the weights but handles the wet and only has to hold her form to be thereabouts again. 3. Girls Are Ready ran on well over 1080m first up on Canberra’s synthetic track. Straight out to 1400m but if she can find her two-year-old form where she beat Devachan and then Sebrakate, both on heavy tracks, she’ll just about win this.

How to play it: Assault’n’bathory WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) and Vertex ($26) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Assault’n’bathory two back in a very similar race

7. Wimlah was a forgive run last time out. She found herself worse than midfield, was exposed a long way from home and just whacked away at the finish. Would have loved for this to have been a mile but 1500m will have to do, out from four straight runs over 1400m. The prospect of a wet track making it a more testing journey plays into her hands. She goes on all surfaces so any amount of rain shouldn’t stop her. Tim Clark got her out of the gates quickly last start but speed kicked up under her and Clark had to take hold. She has drawn wide again here but she should be afforded the opportunity to be a lot closer in the run. That’s a key component to her winning chances in this. Her form all campaign has been excellent including a first up second to Haut Brion Her and then two starts back, being edged out by Ming Dynasty favourite Subedar.

Dangers: Chris Waller has scracthed Re Edit and Zalatte. 5. Helga beat Wimlah home last start, behind Connemara, and has come back in career best form. She is honest, handles the wet and makes her own luck. 8. Song And A Prayer has never raced better and wasn’t far off Helga two back. Nash Rawiller suits her well.

How to play it: Wimlah WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD

BEST BET

"She profiles as the horse to beat."

With plenty of rain forecast ahead of Saturday, @BradJGray has labelled a rock hard fit mare as the day's best at @rosehillgardens @tabcomau @GaiWaterhouse1 pic.twitter.com/gmbbW5z2yW

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 29, 2019

Still coming to terms with 2. Thy Kingdom Come being rolled last start having booted clear at the 300m, but back to the well we go again. The one niggle ahead of last start is that he was still half a run short, even though he was third up. In each of his runs this campaign he has taken his jockey that little bit further into the straight before peaking. No excuses now fourth up though, he should be running right through the line. James McDonald sticks with the five-year-old, a big tick given how well they click. The pair have combined on four occasions for two wins and a second. The miss was at the end of a preparation. Thy Kingdom Come will have to shoulder another big weight but he’s accustomed to that now and he tends to handle all surfaces. If anything, he goes a shade better with the sting out.

Dangers: 11. Adana was never tested first up before he was out too late second up, which was last week at Randwick. Still expected more from him late when he was finally clear. Punters’ patience is wearing very thin! The wetter the better for 1 Pelethronius. He went up in grade and down in weight last start but didn’t quite measure up. 5. Irukandji found the line sweetly at his first run for Bjorn Baker but has shown a dislike for wet tracks in the past. 13. Weekend Affair for wider multiples.

How to play it: Thy Kingdom Come WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVEN

Thy Kingdom Come being gunned down late last start

8. Humbolt Current is the sole runner for Chris Waller in this. A little unusual for a 2000m staying event in town. The five-year-old looked to have the race shot to bits last start when second up at Flemington on a wet track but felt the pinch the last 50m or so allowing Royal Ace to fight back. That’s the heavy track box ticked. His first up run was a beauty too, finding the line over the mile at Caulfield. Out to 2000m looks perfect now and he looks ready to win third up. The gelded son of Fastnet Rock has only been tried over 2000m once before and was a winner in the UK. He got a long way back last start but we saw in his first Australian preparation that he can settle closer so expect James McDonald to use the draw to park him midfield.

Dangers: 5. Costello would’ve been fighting out the finish last start with a clear run, there’s no denying that. The same could be said for 14. Missybeel though, and she has failed since, albeit back to the mile where she found herself in front. Back to Costello, the wet track brings him back a peg but he is not far away from another breakthrough. 11. Heart Of Grace is a fascinating runner for West Aussie trainer Frank Pangallo. The imported mare, on debut in Australia, was beaten four lengths by Supernova at York two starts ago (and Our Candidate finished well behind her). Can make cases for 17. Mrs Madrid down in the weights. 6. Ulusaba is rock hard fit and will give another sight while 4. Nahuel gets the blinkers on for the first time. 3. Monsieur Sisu? He does love wet tracks.

How to play it: Humbolt Current WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Heart Of Grace trialling at Warwick Farm – August 9

Everything is in 3. Bivouac’s favour here. The Godolphin three-year-old has a run under his belt already, maps to settle in front of his key rivals and loves wet ground. What an outstanding return it was from this Exceed And Excel colt at Caulfield where Hugh Bowman cuddled him all the way until 200m out before he exploded clear of his rivals. Yes, he beat Sebrakate, and meets much stiffer opposition here, but there was so much quality about the way Bivouac ran through the line. One of the most exciting elements to Bivouac is that every single time he has stepped out, he has taking a leap forward. That is without exception in all six of his starts. He was well beaten by Yes Yes Yes three starts ago in the G2 Todman Stakes but that was on a Good track and Bivouac has gone to a new level since then. After that he stepped out in the G3 Kindergarten on a Soft 7 and beat then debutant Libertini.

Dangers: 6. Exceedance could very well be the best three-year-old in the country, that’s the scope he looks to have. Sound crazy in the context of him winning a Wyong maiden and running third in a two-year-old handicap at Rosehill in June, however his closing splits have been scintillating. Splintex crawled in the early stages of that latest start which saw Exceedance clock 32.21s for his final 600m, yet still only place! That was five lengths faster than the next best. His last two splits there were 10.51 and 10.63. That’s elite. Untried on wet ground. If the rain doesn’t come, promote him. 4. Anaheed is a swimmer, just hope that gut buster first up on a hot speed with a big weight doesn’t flatten her.

How to play it: Bivouac WIN ($1.33 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Bivouac beating Libertini in the Kindergarten

So much hinges on the state of the track in this race. 10. Wu Gok was only 2.5L away from 9. Wolfe last start in a race dictated by the two leaders, and on a good track. We know Wu Gok grows a leg in the mud. He quacks, doesn’t neigh. The wetter the better. He has won five from nine on heavy ground. At 1800 and beyond on heavy tracks he has won four from five, with the miss being a second to Primitivo earlier this campaign when seven weeks between runs. He also drops 2.5kg from his last start to get in on the 53kg minimum. The only time he has raced in Group company was as a three-year-old when midfield in the Queensland Derby but this is the right profile of race for him to measure up, catching a couple of his better credentialed rivals on the hop fitness-wise. His price will drop quicker than the rain if we get the soaking being forecast.

Dangers: Wolfe is a winner, simple as that, having won five of his six starts. He got a 10kg advantage over Stampede last start but he did it a lot easier than the margin suggests. That was first up over 1800m so he can only improve. No idea how he’ll go on wet ground. Big watch on 5. Come Play With Me. The strength of her WA form suggests he'll measure up and James McDonald rides.

How to play it: Wu Gok EACH WAY ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Wu Get gets a wet track to turn the tables on Wolfe

5. Subedar showed a lovely turn of foot at Rosehill to make it two from two. His acceleration of 11.15s between the 400-200m was instant to beat Wimlah and Danawi. He has had the grounding of runs over 1300m and 1400m already. Hasn’t seen a wet track on race day but fits into this race well.

Dangers: 8. Savoury has 2.8L to make up on Subedar but he didn’t look all that comfortable in behind horses having sat outside of the leader on debut. Blinkers on suggest he’ll be back out in front. 1. Alligator Blood gives away weight here but has won three from three. Hard to line up coming down from Queensland but looks talented. Of the Kiwis, 2. Quick Thinker, a last start Listed winner over the mile, could find a couple of these too sharp but a wet track plays into his hands.

How to play it: Subedar WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

3. Mister Songman found the 1100m a touch too sharp first up but it was an encouraging return from the five-year-old in a high rating race. Out to 1200m and on a rain-affected track gives him the chance to bounce back. He’ll be better again out to 1400m, with the stable targeting the Epsom, but second up last preparation he stayed at 1100m and was beaten half a length by Deprive with Military Zone back in fourth. That was on a soft track. His only exposure to heavy ground was in a Launceston maiden on debut. He found himself midfield last start from a wide draw but expect him to be much closer in this. Doubt he’ll lead 5. You Make Me Smile but he should lob in the first couple.

Dangers: There are no shortage of them! 7. Desert Lord was devastating in winning at Rosehill back in May, taking a sit and zipping clear. He exploded late in a sit-sprint with Punters Intelligence revealing 10.73s/10.89s splits home. He’d be top pick if we were heading for a Good track. Was keen in his trial so old habits die hard. 6. Beau Ideal is a lightly-raced import for Godolphin. Is a Listed winner over 1000m and looked sharp in his trials.

How to play it: Mister Songman WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD

Mister Songman first up behind All Too Royal

9. God Of Thunder was unlucky not to have won first up. He now tackles the same grade, over 100m further. It’s the perfect scenario for the sprinter to make amends. The four-year-old resumed a gelding and liked how he settled back in the field. He tracked into the race but was held up half way down the straight which proved the difference in winning and losing. Punters Intelligence reveals that he still ran his last 600m in 32.13s, and found the line in a zippy 10.98s for his last 200m, the quickest in the race. The barrier doesn’t look too flash on paper for God Of Thunder but drawn wide is likely to be some advantage come the last of the day giving Brenton Avdulla options. We know from first up that the four-year-old can be ridden patiently, having formerly been a keen going sort of horse. Has enough wet form to suggest he’ll handle anything thrown up at Rosehill.

Dangers: 8. Roosevelt was beaten first up in a race much easier than this as an odds on favourite but he found himself in front and peaked on his run late. He’ll strip fitter for that, be much better suited playing a stalking role and likes (maybe even ‘loves’) wet ground. His Warwick Farm heavy track win was outstanding. What do we do with 2. Black Magnum? He belted his rivals first and second up (on wet tracks) before the wheels came off at Rosehill last start. He travelled wide but was a beaten horse a long way from home. Was ordered back to the trials and thought he was entitled to find the line better under riding.

How to play it: God Of Thunder WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

God Of Thunder motoring home first up

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill meeting