By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick.
The rail is out 2m and the form has been done for a good/soft track.
Merry Christmas and good punting.
|Race 1 - 1:05PM BOXING DAY PLATE (1100 METRES)|
Times are a big piece of the form puzzle for most analysts (including myself) but occasionally you just have to trust your eye above all else. Case in point 8. Vandoula Lass. The Team Hawkes-trained youngster didn’t do much on the clock in her Sandown win but it was practically a $27,000 track gallop for her. She cruised to victory in the manner of a smart youngster, and was smashed in betting. Absolutely smashed. Craig Williams only asked her to quicken inside the 200m and she shot clear. How many gears she had left is unclear but tipping there are was still at least a couple he could have called upon. None of those rivals have raced since so we don’t know the depth of form. Wayne Hawkes said post race that she’d only race again this preparation if she jumped out of the ground, and here she is. The daughter of Vancouver showed that same zip in a recent Rosehill trial.
Dangers: Godolphin’s 9. Vianello trialled like a rocket at Haweskbury before being backed as if unbeatable at Newcastle on debut. It’s always worrisome trusting 900m form, and the form out of the race has been horrid since, but again, she did it in style. She travelled deep throughout and won in the manner of a filly at least destined for Saturday class. Would be surprised if she doesn’t measure up. 2. Cochrane is another two-year-old with the benefit of race experience. He just went down on debut at Eagle Farm in a Listed race and has the power of Peter and Paul Snowden behind him.
How to play it: Vandoula Lass WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Vandoula Lass trialling at Rosehill
|Race 2 - 1:40PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
6. Dreaming For More was impressive winning at Armidale last start over 1100m, running very fast time. The five-year-old mare has now won two of her past three for Quirindi-based trainer Peter Mills. At her second outing for her new stable she ran Toto to half a length, so confident that she’ll measure up in Highway Handicap company. She also maps beautifully from the low draw in a race that doesn’t look stacked natural leaders. She is versatile enough to park anywhere but hse has won from outside of the leader in the past. Formerly trained by Waterhouse and Bott, she boasts a Kembla Grange win over Outback Diva and a second to Invinciano at Nowra. She’ll be looking over her shoulder for the talented 17. Pinnacle Prince but she gets a lot in her favour here.
Dangers: We still don’t know exactly how good Pinnacle Prince is just yet given he’s only had two starts, winning brilliantly at Scone on debut before chasing home It’s Me over this same track and trip. Doesn’t have to improve off that to win this but how big of a start does he have to give away from the draw? 3. Pedway rattled home last start, showing a glimpse of his old form. Want to see him do it again but don’t forget about him.
How to play it: Dreaming For More EACH WAY ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Dreaming For More winning at Armidale last start
|Race 3 - 2:15PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
5. Zing was friendless in betting first up at Warwick Farm yet still was only beaten a length. That lack of support screams that she needed the run. Second up last preparation she bounced off a pass mark sixth at Canterbury first up before belting her rivals at Newcastle. Then third up she went toe-to-toe with Fulmina at Warwick Farm and came away with a narrow verdict. There was four lengths back to third. Fulmina turned the tables at their next outing but Zing travelled deep throughout. Forget her failure thereafter when back in trip. Suspect we haven’t seen anywhere near the very best of this mare just yet being only eight starts into her career. James McDonald sticks and maps to give her every chance in the run.
Dangers: 2. Pitchfork finds another winnable race but he’s had every possible chance both runs back this time in. That said, he peaks now fitness wise and maps to get complete control, which makes him dangerous. 10. Bowery Breeze hit the line alongside Zing last start, albeit she was third up so doesn’t have the same upside, but she is also building towards another win and this isn’t a deep Saturday class race.
How to play it: Zing WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"That lack of support first up screams that she needed the run."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) December 23, 2020
|Race 4 - 2:50PM RANVET HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
12. La Grisa really speared to the line first up at Warwick Farm suggesting she has returned particularly well. The five-year-old grey threatened to win last prepetition but didn’t put one away. Her SPs certainly suggests she warrants a lot of respect in this, however. She jumps from a midweek BM72 into a Saturday BM78 but plummets from 57kg to just 52kg and will appreciate the extra 200m. Rachel King sticks with the mare, unsurprisingly given her fresh run, and what a luxury to have a jockey of her calibre riding at such a light weight. Map-wise, La Grisa is likely to find herself midfield or a touch worse and in a race that looks set to be truly run, get her chance to pick her rivals off. Looks over the odds in an even race.
Dangers: 1. Mushaireb was just found wanting at the end of a genuinely run mile last start but the run wasn’t as bad as it reads on paper. He looks just about ready now fourth up out to 2000m. 7. Prospectus will appreciate the trip now and drops in weight. He shouldn’t be discarded too quickly. 4. Sacramento improved sharply last preparation and like the way he has trialled this time back. He looked sharp enough to competitive fresh, despite winning out to 2800m the last time we saw him. 10. Amica has won two of her past three starts and beat a subsequent winner in Montserrat last start. The hard fit 9. Nyami finished on her heels and gets a weight swing. That was back in trip to the mile. This looks suitable.
How to play it: La Grisa EACH WAY ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
La Grisa hitting the line first up
|Race 5 - 3:30PM DRINKWISE MILE (1600 METRES)|
3. Frosty Rocks can be as temperamental as he can be brilliant. He needs to lead. He is a control freak. That was again evident after he was beaten at Eagle Farm last start, handing up to eventual all-the-way winner Master Jamie. The grey threw in the towel half way down the straight. Let him run and make his rivals do the chasing, he is a different horse. In all four of his career wins, he’s played catch me if you can. It’s significant that Tom Sherry jumps back aboard the four-year-old given how perfectly he rode him first up this campaign, when the duo bolted in at Rosehill. The tactics were spot on. Drawn barrier 1, Sherry will assume control again here from the outset and if the best version of Frosty rolls into Randwick, they won’t see which way he went.
Dangers: 13. Bigboyroy was unlucky not to be Edison last start in this same grade. Edison, of course, franked that form line last Saturday winning an open handicap. Back out to the mile looks perfect now. 4. Kiss The Bride could be a big improver second up, as he was last preparation coming off a similar first up effort. 5. High Opinion and 6. Korcho are both capable but how ready will they be first up? The market could tell us more. 2. Matowi hopes are crushed by the wide barrier as he only has a short sprint. 7. Opacity best of the rest.
How to play it: Frosty Rocks WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Frosty Rocks and Tom Sherry combining two starts ago
|Race 6 - 4:10PM HEINEKEN SUMMER CUP (2000 METRES)|
5. Laure Me In gets his chance to turn the tables on 1. Greysful Glamour from four weeks ago given the set up of this race. The six-year-old gets a 4.5kg weight swing, given Greysful Glamour has since won the Villiers Stakes, won’t have to settle out the back and there is enough pressure to potentially take Greysful Glamour out of her comfort zone. The sting out of the track helps Laure In too as we know how dynamic the front-running grey is on firm footing. Laure Me In has had a tickover trial since last start and he motored to the line. Race fit horses always tend to trial well but it was an exceptional piece of work. Punters Intelligence reveals that Laure Me In rattled home in 34.01s the last time we saw him, two lengths quicker than any of his rivals.
Dangers: It’s hard to knock a winner, especially one that races like Greysful Glamour taking bad luck out of the equation but can she bring up three straight given the circumstances? She lumps 59kg, will be hoping the track dries out and will have company from 10. Vadiyann. 9. Spirit Ridge makes the leap from benchmark level. He is looking for this trip now but he’s too well found in early markets to recommend in this. 2. Best Of Days ran Greysful Glamour to 0.4L in the Villiers and meets her 2kg better off, but faces a different map. He got a dream run last start. 6. Mr Marathon Man and 7. Berdibek for the wider exotics.
How to play it: Laure Me In WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
|Race 7 - 4:50PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
6. Charretera defied the Canterbury bias to win first up, chalking up a long overdue third victory. He is now a winner of three from 22 but he has placed in a further 14 of those runs. His credentials suggest he can only run well yet again. He is 8:2-2-3 over the 1200m, his pet trip, and at the Randwick 1200m he is 3:1-0-2. Plus second up his record reads 4:2-1-1. Tommy Berry sticks with the gelding and should be able to park him in the perfect spot from the low draw. There are plenty of chances in this race and it’s a deep B78 but it looks absolutely tailor made for this five-year-old. He struck a run of wet tracks last preparation and although he gets through it, his record suggests he prefers a dry deck.
Dangers: On potential alone, 5. Quantico is the hardest to beat. The lightly-raced four-year-old has only been to the races five times but is already a three-time winner. Wouldn’t read too much into his trials as that’s how he always tends to trial. The blinkers go on for the first time. First up last preparation 3. Amish Boy finished on the heels of Doubtland in the G2 Danehill before stretching out to the mile in the G1 Caulfield Guineas. 7. All Time Legend might find the 1200m a touch sharp but his best is still ahead of him. Then there’s 11. Knickpoint and 12. Monte Ditto too. Deep race.
How to play it: Charretera EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Charretera winning at Canterbury first up
|Race 8 - 5:30PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
14. Ellsberg comes back 100m in trip after making a mess of his three and four-year-old rivals at Rosehill last start but it’s really the only knock on the Gerald Ryan and Stirling Alexious-trained colt. A near side blinker went on three weeks ago and the result was immediate. Having been a touch wayward in his three runs prior, he went straight to the front and never deviated. It was a demolition. Jay Ford has his first ride on the son of Spill The Beans but imagine the instructions will be pretty simple. Let him slide forward in his own time from the wide draw, which looks advantageous in this case, before running his rivals into the ground again knowing he is on a very fit horse coming back to 1400m. Just has to hold his form to win again.
Dangers: 5. Intrepadacious wasn’t beaten far in a very deep BM88 at Randwick last start. That was a big improvement on her disappointing effort the start prior. She had been flying in her trials prior to that and was a big first up winner way back in October. This is her first try at 1400m. 13. Travest really caught the eye first up over 1100m. He couldn’t have done much more over that trip. Is he still half a run short though? Maybe. 10. Greek Hero was bustled out to lead the Norwa Cup before folding up meekly despite starting $1.55. He is better than that. 11. St Covet’s Spirit went close last Saturday but she had her chance and there’s more depth here. 4. Off Shaw trialled particularly well while 6. Zoffany’s Lad could sneak a hole at odds.
How to play it: Ellsberg WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Ellsberg’s dominant last start win
|Race 9 - 6:10PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
1. Madam Legend is already a 79 rater so she is well on her way to being better than this company. A winner of four from her past six starts, the four-year-old trained by Les Bridge went out with a bang last preparation. Albeit aided by a rail friendly Kensington surface. Her win prior to that at Newcastle she again assumed complete control from the front. She won’t get that here but she certainly doesn’t have to lead to win. Love the way the daughter of I Am Invincible has trialled this time back, coasting through the line. Cejay Graham has been aboard in all four of her wins, and in the latest of those trials. It’s a handy 3kg claim given she was allotted 60.5kg. Gives away a fitness edge to a couple of her key rivals but class will take her a long way first up.
Dangers: 5. Starla should have won first up at Rosehill before hitting the line alongside Tailleur last start in BM88 company. She only has to hold her form to be in the money again. Still looks overs even after scratchings and market adjustments. 16. La Foret jumps into Saturday company and away from Canterbury but she's hard fit, makes her onw luck and gets in with 53kg. 2. Maddi Rocks was plain first up but is creeping out to enormous odds for a mare of her quality.
How to play it: Madam Legend WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) and Starla WIN ($8.50) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Madam Legend’s latest barrier trial