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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick on Saturday.

The rail is in the True and form has been done for a Good track.

2. Bacchanalia looks to have slipped the eye of bookmakers with two hidden trials. The colt is another from incredible two-year-old sire Exceed And Excel for Godolphin and being out of Thalia makes him a brother to Aquitaine and The Graces. Bacchanalia has had two trials, the first of those at Hawkesbury where after beginning well was restrained back to last, but liked the way he cruised home under no pressure. That was behind stablemate 11. Testimonial but thought he was the pick of the pair. He then went around for another spin, this time at Randwick and although beaten a long way by 3. Captivant, he was never asked for an effort. In fact, he looked to be eased down late. Suspect there is a lot more to this colt than his trial placings suggest.

Dangers: 10. She’s All Class made it look all very easy when winning her Rosehill trial. She mustered quickly to find the front, cruised along at a good clip and was there for the jockey when he slapped her up the last 200m. The time was good for the morning’s set. Captivant began on terms in his Randwick trial but was forced back from the wide gate. There was a lot to like about the way he closed off. Draws to get every chance. No knock on 8. Emerald Bay for Waterhouse and Bott after the speedy filly put her three rivals away in a Randwick trial over 742m. The margin was only getting wider through the line. Thought 6. Kalashnikov was entitled to do a touch more on debut in the Breeders’ Plate.

How to play it: Bacchanalia EACH WAY ($12 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Bacchanalia and Captivant trialling at Randwick

16. Mr Moppett has built an exceptional record from his five start career, winning both starts this time back. The time of the most recent of those at Leeton compared favourably to the open handicap. The three-year-old put his rivals away late and drops down from 58kg to 54kg going into a Class 3. Prior to that victory he got home first up at Cowra over 1000m. At the backend of last preparation, his first, he ran third to Lion’s Roar at Wagga where he started $2.80. He didn’t handle the very heavy conditions and the winner of course has since been edged out in a G1 Spring Champion Stakes! Tim Clark should be able to put the son of Sizzling into the first half of the field from the perfect draw. That’s significant as there doesn’t look to be a lot between the first five or six chances.

Dangers: 6. Depth That Varies draws to give away a big start but if this four-year-old can find a three-wide running line and is not forced to get back to last, he possesses the dash to round these up. Would have been a tragedy beaten first up at Scone but he scrambled home. Ran third in an 1100m Highway over this same track and trip last preparation. Of 7. Lady Demi’s last seven starts, six have been in Highways for a win, four seconds and a luckless sixth! The only query is whether she’ll be a touch soft first up. 12. Emilette is speedy and brings It’s Me form, as does 17. Crackneck.

How to play it: Mr Moppett WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Mr Moppett winning at Leeton last start

9. Purple Sector resumed as a gelding three weeks ago at Rosehill when hitting the line with Bottega. It was a race completely dictated by the all-the-way winner Prime Candidate with the five-year-old breaking 11s for his last 200m (Punters Intelligence) such was the shape of the race. Bottega has been subsequently run a luckless placing behind Criaderas, lumping a big weight, franking the form. Purple Sector has been hard to catch boasting just two wins from his 19 starts but a deeper dive reveals that 11 of those losses have been on soft and heavy tracks. His record on good tracks reads 8:2-1-2. The other factor in his favour here is the drop to 52kg. Rachel King takes the ride and from the draw looks to settle in the box seat. If he runs up to his first up second, he’s in the finish.

Dangers: 1. Looks Like Elvis drops way back in grade from a fifth in the G1 Epsom. He has been knocking around in Group races all preparation. Was scratched from the Craven Plate for this easier assignment. Has 58kg but deserves every kilo. If there’s a knockout here it’s 3. Missybeel on the backup from a luckless run in the G3 Angst. 2. Just Thinkin’ was disappointing in the Hill Stakes but he won’t have the likes of Kolding, Fierce Impact and Avilius breathing down his neck in this. Still, he wasn’t entitled to be as weak late as he was last start. 5. Laure Me In beat his rivals fair and square last start but they all meet him significantly better at the weights.

How to play it: Purple Sector WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

"He resumed a gelding three weeks ago when hitting the line with Bottega."

📹BEST BET: @BradJGray says all this miler has to do is run up to his first up showing to fight out the finish in this @JTRacingRwik @tabcomau @royalrandwick pic.twitter.com/zqfHcMOeG3

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 15, 2020

9. Only Mine got the blinkers on last start and stepped out to 1400m which saw a BIG turnaround in her form. She jumps from a midweek maiden into a Listed race but she won by 3.8L going away on the line and she ran faster overall time than the BM72 (Instant Attraction) and the BM78 (Fortress Command) at the same Warwick Farm meeting. That was despite going significantly slower in the early to middle stages of the race. She was entitled to win given the easy time she had in front but wasn’t entitled to slip home in 11.21/11.57s for her last 400m. Punters Intelligence shows that her last 200m of 11.57s was comfortably the quickest in the race. That 1400m win gives the daughter of Smart Missile a great base for this.

Dangers: As it stands right now, 1. Forbidden Love is the best filly in this race, hence the 59kg impost. She ran third to Dame Giselle and Hungry Heart two back before being well held by Wild Ruler in the Heritage Stakes, with that horse winning again since. Can she stretch her brilliance to 1400m though? 12. Bargain is another last start maiden winner but she powered through the line, perhaps suggesting she wants a mile now but there is no doubt whatsoever about her getting the trip. 1. Joviality was found out at Group One level last start or maybe she just didn’t run the mile. Either way, this is more suitable but she draws awkwardly. Respect the winning form of 4. Elizabeel.

How to play it: Only Mine WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

A midweek maiden straight into a Listed race?

📹@BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to reveal why Only Mine can take the jump in class all in her stride @GooreeStud @GaiWaterhouse1 @royalrandwick @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/UBlYdatXkI

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 16, 2020

The clock doesn’t lie and 14. It’s Me has been smashing it to smithereens in her three start career. The four-year-old mare ran the fastest closing splits across the entire meeting at Randwick at just start number two, running faster overall time than Sweet Deal in the G3 Toy Show. As an aside, that Highway has provided six subsequent winners. She backed that up four weeks later with another devastating sprint of 32.41s for her last 600m. Again, nothing across the meeting matched her late splits. Her last 400m alone was six lengths quicker than the next best. The daughter of Shamus Award, which should see her get 1200m no problem at all, could be a very special talent and you get the impression we’re still only scraping the surface. She’s very short but could emerge a star.

Dangers: 3. Redouble's latest three first up runs have been a 0.5L third to Trekking, a 3.6L fourth to Arcadia Queen and a 0.6L third to Snitz. At this meeting last year he was only two lengths away in the Sydney Stakes. Now with Mitch Beer, the seven-year-old has trialled sweetly. 11. Fender maps beautifully and is a winner of four from five. Wasn’t beaten far in the Theo Marks last start and gave Discharged a touch up first up. The barrier looks tricky for defending champ 1. Handle The Truth but he looks to be going as well as last year. 

How to play it: It’s Me WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

It’s Me winning at Randwick last start

3. Tactical Advantage produced two very similar first and second up runs last preparation before jumping out of the ground third up. In fact, he has won four from six third up with one of those defeats a narrow second and the other on a heavy track. This has been the seven-year-old’s spring target all campaign. Thought he did enough first up in The Shorts behind a trifecta that are all in The TAB Everest, blowing out late, before he dropped back to an unsuitable 1000m trip second up at Warwick Farm where Villami proved too slippery. That was with 60kg even after the claim of Louise Day. Tipping it was the run he had to have. Drawn low, he pairs beautifully with Jason Collett who’ll be tasked with saving him up for his customary devastating 300m sprint.

Dangers: 1. Deprive warrants favouritism given how hard he closed in the Premiere Stakes last start edging out Nature Strip on the line. The race was run to suit but the backmarkers look suited again here with plenty of speed on paper. His Randwick 1200m record reads 6:3-0-1. 4. Standout was entitled to knock up late in the same race but how much does that flatten him? His best is good enough to win this. Here’s to hoping that 8. Trumbull’s spring preparation isn’t as frustrating as his last. In his defence, he found himself in career-best form. 7. Military Zone’s chances were dealt a blow by the wide draw while reluctant to underestimate 10. Irithea even though she will be part of the speed battle.

How to play it: Tactical Advantage WIN ($15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Tactical Advantage winning third up last preparation

Is there enough evidence to conclude that 4. Santa Ana Lane’s days at the top level are behind him? He hasn’t won first up in his last 10 preparations, which spans four years, and his run in the Gilgai a fortnight ago was the equivalent what he has done in recent campaigns before exploding second up. In his last five runs over the Randwick 1200m, he dominated a TJ Smith, has run seconds in another TJ Smith as well as an Everest and broken the track record (2018 Premiere). 1. Nature Strip has been given the benefit of the doubt price-wise so why has Santa been brushed? An interesting way to tilt this market is to hypothetically suggest that all runners will produce their best. Santa Ana Lane would be second favourite. It’s a leap of faith but we’re getting a big price to find out.

Dangers: 3. Classique Legend produced a devastating last 200m to win The Shorts first up before travelling deep throughout in a fast-run Premier Stakes that saw 11. Libertini breeze past him late. He ran a luckless sixth in The TAB Everest last year and has returned better again. Les Bridge has timed his campaign to perfection, draws perfectly and has Kerrin McEvoy steering. He’s the bombproof option. Would be surprised if he isn’t in the top three. As we saw in this race 12 months ago, when it sets up for closers, there aren’t too many sprinters around that can match the finish of 2. Trekking. Expect backmarkers to be suited again. You’d be a brave punter to say that 1. Nature Strip couldn’t win but it’s hard to entertain him at the price.

How to play it: Santa Ana Lane EACH WAY ($17 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

EVEREST RUNNER BY RUNNER GUIDE

Santa Ana Lane in last year’s TAB Everest

2. Star Of The Seas was very plain to the eye in the G1 Epsom when a lot more was expected from him. That said, it was a funny race in that despite the good tempo up front, it was largely on speed dominated with the top three home settling in the top five. Looking at Star Of The Seas’ last 200m split, it was only 1.5L off the quickest in the race (which was Rock). Anything that settled midfield or worse simply wasn’t in the race. Long story short, happy to forgive him that. A repeat of either of his two runs prior to that, when a luckless second in the G1 George Main and a gallant second to Verry Elleegant in the G1 Winx Stakes, wins this. He is the highest rated runner and although on trial at 2000m, it’s the right race to try him, with James McDonald going on.

Dangers: It’s a similar case for 11. Vanna Girl coming through an inconclusive Epsom run. She has won out to 1800m. 10. Scarlet Dream’s best two recent runs have been fresh. She was very flat last Saturday despite getting a dry track. Out to 2000m suits. 7. Think It Over was okay last start when deep ended in the G2 Hill Stakes at weight for age. It’s a similar set up here but there’s a lot less depth. 4. Life Less Ordinary finished alongside Think It Over there and although he has failed to fire this spring, he gets the blinkers on for the first time (as a nine-year-old!). 9. Rondinella was beaten by the barrier in The Metrop, which turned into a sprint home. Her late sectionals were deceptively good and don’t think the drop back to 2000m hurts. 12. Quintessa is only a 74 rater but she’s not hopeless here either.

How to play it: Star Of The Seas WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Star Of The Seas in the George Main two back

Two of the three runnings of the new-look Randwick St Leger have been won by horses via The Metrop and tipping that trend to continue with 7. Paths Of Glory. The six-year-old grey was chopped out of a run at the 400m mark last start, which ended his chances in the race. He was never going to win given the lacklustre speed up front and being forced back from the wide draw, but outside of the quinella Mirage Dancer and Mugatoo, thought his was run was the best of the rest. Punters Intelligence reveals he had the third quickest last 600m (34.50s) and the third quickest last 200m (11.63s). It’s worth noting that at the weights, he does meet 1. Wu Gok 2.5kg worse off and 2. Brimham Rocks 1kg worse off.

Dangers: It’s hard to make a case for Wu Gok but Brimham Rocks was deep throughout in The Metrop. The modest tempo perhaps didn’t mean it was too much of a disadvantage but it’s not a spot where too many Group Ones are won from. Can be hard to catch but he was a big winner fourth up last preparation at Eagle Farm. 10. She’s Ideel jumps in grade but everything she has done this time back screams that she’ll relish 2400m and beyond. She was strong through the line to scramble home at Randwick last Saturday and being so lightly-raced, this is well within her reach. 3. Attorney had the best turn of foot in a slowly run race last start and Grey Lion has franked the form. Peaks now fourth up.

How to play it: Paths Of Glory WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Paths Of Glory in the G1 Metrop last start

3. Best Stone just kept on running when winning at Canterbury last start. Nash Rawiller was aggressive from the outset and this mare seems to respond best to the handle bars down tactics. The four-year-old is a very fit racehorse now six runs into a preparation which started at the backend of winter. Drawn wide again, the same tactics will be adopted and there doesn’t look to be anything here that’ll drive up and contest the lead. That becomes even more important with the daughter of I Am Invincible still needing to prove herself over 1400m. She tackled the trip two back at Newcastle in the G3 Tibbie and boxed on to run fifth beaten 2.7L. That was on a soft track too, and we know she’s so much more dynamic on top of the ground. Sets up to be hard to run down again.

Dangers: There were a number of rivals closing in behind Best Stone last start and they front up for another crack. 5. Julian Rock is the one that the market has missed. Punters Intelligence shows his last 200m was 10.79s (next best Bright Rubick 10.93s). 16. Bright Rubick looks ready to win out third up out to 1400m but not sure where she gets to from the draw. Does Robbie Dolan take the cart from Best Stone to sit handy? 14. Dream Circle sets up similarly third up and he was tightened slightly in the straight last start costing him finishing closer. 1. Dancing Gidget is the class runner but has a wide draw and 59.5kg on her back. Not easy but perhaps she's simply too good for what it largely a midweek level field.

How to play it: Best Stone WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Best Stone beating many of her rivals here last start

All the fields, form and replays for TAB Everest Day at Randwick on Saturday