By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick.
The rail is out 6m and the form has been done for a good track, although rain is forecast for race day.
|Race 1 - 1:15PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
1. Kiss The Bride has been building towards another win this campaign and shouldn’t have any excuses fifth up out to 2400m, dropping back in grade. The five-year-old had every chance last start at Randwick but Sacramento was simply too good. That was BM88. Here he is in a BM78 carrying 3kg more after the claim of Tom Sherry. His runs prior to that were rock solid too, without winning. He isn’t a horse that possesses a killer punch to put a field away so the barrier is critical to his chances. The last two races he has won, he camped on the back of the leaders, peeled off at the 300m mark and did the rest. One of those wins was with 60.5kg so doubt the weight stops him in this. Put simply, he has found the perfect race.
Dangers: Stablemate 3. Harpo Marx has won three of his past five this preparation and is suited getting back out to 2400m off two brutally run 2000m races. He was no match for Great House a fortnight ago but the winner is a promising stayer destined for better things. The query is this could be more of a sprint home and leave him flat footed from out the back. 7. Power Of Attorney ran Harpo Marx to 0.5L back in December and competed in Listed company last start. 4. Kaapfever will do his thing and charge late while 2. Accountability fans will need to take him purely off trust because his last start effort was very plain. His best would certainly give this a shake, however.
How to play it: Kiss The Bride WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Kiss The Bride last start behind Sacramento
|Race 2 - 1:50PM SILVERDALE FARM PIERRO PLATE (1100 METRES)|
1. Stay Inside was a dominant winner on debut and made it all look very easy. That’s a sign of a smart horse. The Richard and Michael Freedman-trained colt trailed the speed, settled, hooked off heels turning for home and accelerated away to win by a widening 2.8L. It was a deceptive winning margin. Rulership and Dawn Passage were the past two winners of that particular Randwick 1000m race, so it has a history of producing smart youngsters. Stay Inside ran time too and clocked a strong last 600m split of 33.32s, the quickest in the race. James McDonald jumps off the runner up 12. Headliner to ride the son of Extreme Choice and drawn a middle gate, he’ll find himself in the first dozen. Has to improve again to prove himself a genuine Slipper contender and if he does, he’ll put these away just as comfortably.
Dangers: 2. Akihiro looks to be the two-year-old that the market has missed. He did start $51 on debut back in October in the Victory Vein but he ran second to Captivant beating home She’s All Class. He drew barrier 1 and draws the inside marble again here which should see him get the same soft run in transit, third the fence. Headliner warrants respect given the eye-catching nature of her debut behind Stay Inside. It’s hard to see her turning the tables on Stay Inside though, with a minor 1kg swing in the weights. 7. King Of Sparta looked home on debut only to be gunned down by Hilal. Just how good is that winner? We’ll know more after Saturday but don’t underestimate the runner up. 10. Camino Real rates a mention.
How to play it: Stay Inside WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Stay Inside winning on debut
|Race 3 - 2:25PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
7. Birdonawinningpost is still in her first racing preparation but like what she has done in her six runs to date. Two back she stepped out to 1750m at Muswellbrook and won by a widening three lengths, beating 10. Will To Excel. Scone-based trainer Will Freedman then put her away for a month, presumably with this race in mind. Last start she tuned up for this with a luckless fourth at Gosford. The daughter of Shooting To Win was shuffled back in the run before getting held up for much of the short straight. Yet she was still only beaten two lengths on the back of a powerful last 50m when she was finally clear. Grant Buckley sticks and expect her to park in the first dozen. Open race but would be surprised if she isn’t somewhere in the finish.
Dangers: 2. Lamington Drive is chasing three straight wins having beaten subsequent winner Antilles two back before scrambling home at short odds, also at Canberra, in a grinding type performance. The step back in trip to 1800m looks a negative but if there is a genuine tempo up front, it’ll play right to his strength. His stamina. 4. If You Think So ran her rivals into the ground in a Highway two weeks ago at big odds. Punters have to butter up at considerably shorter odds now, not to mention the four-year-old rises 300m and could face a firmer track. That was a big new peak at start number 13 so expect her to come back a peg. She can win but looks too well found.
How to play it: Birdonawinningpost WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Birdonawinningpost last start at Gosford
|Race 4 - 3:05PM ROBRICK LODGE TRISCAY STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Reluctant to look outside of the obvious in 6. Tailleur. She’s hard to knock, even as an odds-on pop. The four-year-old mare runs in Group company for the first time but gets plenty of weight relief, carrying 53kg. Four weeks ago she gave her six rivals a touch up at Rosehill leaving no doubt that she quickens just as effectively on dry tracks as she does in wet ground. The race fell into her lap given how quickly the leaders went in front but her record reads five wins from seven starts, with two seconds so this is the logical next step for her. The other factor in her favour here is there’s no obvious leader and she is versatile enough to dictate if Kerrin McEvoy, who has won from in front on her before, gives her an early dig.
Dangers: Had 1. Madam Rouge pegged as a mare that did her best work on top of the ground and when kept on the fresh side. She defied that the last time we saw her winning deep into a preparation on a wet track! She is dangerous in this but can she give Tailleur 5.5kg? 4. Subpoenaed would be a winning hope over 1400m or even in a more truly run 1200m. She’ll be the strongest late and looked good in her trials. 2. Icebath will be hoping the heavens open on Saturday as her wet track runs are the best of her career, including her near miss in the Golden Eagle. 5. Tricky Gal is very consistent and warrants a touch more market respect.
How to play it: Tailleur WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Tailleur was a dominant last start winner
|Race 5 - 3:45PM ACY SECURITIES HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
4. Scarlet Dream hasn’t won since November 2018. That’s 27 months! Now the negative is out of the way, the case for this mare is her fresh record. First up she is 5:0-4-0 and the miss was first up last preparation when she ran home strongly into fourth in the G2 Shannon Stakes behind I Am Superman and Riodini. She ran okay thereafter but she tends to lose her zip as she gets into her campaign. The other key to her chances is a dry track. She doesn’t go a yard in wet ground so monitor any changes with the track. The daughter of Sebring draws barrier 1 which should at least see her park in front of a couple, albeit she is a dead set backmarker. Interesting that Brenton Avdulla has his first ride on Scarlet Dream. Long story short, given her first up record and being in BM88 company, she is worth an each way ticket at the big odds in a tricky race.
Dangers: It might just be that the Bjorn Baker-trained 8. Canasta has returned a better horse this time back. He won with sustained speed last start. He faces a much deeper field third up but can only imagine that similar catch-me-if-you-can tactics will be adopted and it’d be unlikely that his stablemates 1. Soldier Of Love or 6. Missybeel will be sent out to drive him mad in front. 7. Mohican Heights is a fascinating runner. James McDonald rides the import at his first Australian start and liked how he went through the line in his one trial. Monitor any market confidence. 5. New Arrangement is back from 2000m but is holding his form really well this campaign.
How to play it: Scarlet Dream EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Scarlet Dream first up last preparation
|Race 6 - 4:25PM CELLARBRATIONS SOUTHERN CROSS STAKES (1200 METRES)|
4. Roheryn kept his unbeaten first up record intact at Eagle Farm back in December with a barnstorming last to first victory running powerful late splits. He couldn’t quite repeat the dose second up facing too big of a task from a wide draw in a field of 16 at the tighter Gold Coast track. Speedy galloper Jonker had pinched a winning break. It was a big effort to run third in the end. Love the set up four weeks between runs as this five-year-olds races so well on the fresh side and drawn low, don’t assume Jason Collett will default to having Roheryn out the back. The pair settled midfield when combining to beat Probabeel in the Show County over the spring. Would be surprised if this Godolphin-trained gelding isn’t in the money again at each way odds.
Dangers: 3. Standout didn’t quite measure up against the A graders in the spring but there are no Classique Legends or Bivoaucs here. The last time he raced in Group Three company he was touched off by Trumbull in the Sydney Stakes. If the rain stays away he is a huge player. 7. Masked Crusader is a 79 rater in Group company. He is aggressively placed and even more aggressively priced in opening markets. Was beaten at $1.90, $1.95 and $1.55 last preparation. Liked his recent trial win and he can win but he’s impossible to like at $2.50 in a field of this quality. 10. Albumin and 6. Brave Song will run better than their prices suggest. 2. Gem Song has the class but is he ready off such a lengthy lay off?
How to play it: Roheryn EACH WAY ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Roheryn winning the Show County last year
|Race 7 - 5:05PM YULONG APOLLO STAKES (1400 METRES)|
1. Kolding has a fitness edge on the rest of this field, with all nine of his rivals being first up. That could prove significant. Kolding resumed in the Expressway and although he found Savatiano too sharp, there was plenty of merit in his second. He was never beating the winner given how easy she had it in the early stages. He went missing two preparations ago but found his mojo again over the spring in winning the G1 George Main and then dominating the Hill Stakes out to 2000m. Noted front runner 2. Dreamforce is the obvious leader in this but there is a spot up for grabs to sit on his shoulder. That’s where Kolding won the George Main from and if Hugh Bowman can find it again, he’s the horse to beat given the set up.
Dangers: Dreamforce and Kolding have met five times in the past and it’s 3-2 to Kolding but there’s little between them on talent. The evergreen eight-year-old excels fresh, loves Randwick (17:6-3-0) and the 1400m is his pet trip (14:7-3-1). He has trialled as well as ever and Nash Rawiller rides again. 6. Verry Elleegant is arguably the best horse in the country but she will be at her most vulnerable all preparation here, first up over a trip short of her best on a dry track. If the rain does hit her chances obviously sky rocket. Won over 1400m first up last preparation but it was a soft track and the race was brutally run. The 1400m is as short as 4. Mugatoo wants too and he maps to settle last but he is a top class animal. There’s a big race in him this autumn. 8. Funstar is in the mix but is too well found.
How to play it: Kolding WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Kolding first up in the Expressway Stakes
|Race 8 - 5:40PM TAB LIGHT FINGERS STAKES (1200 METRES)|
1. Away Game gets everything in her favour. She tackles the race with a fitness edge coming back from a Magic Millions campaign, is the best suited under the set weights scale and draws to get the run of the race. Throw into the mix that she is two from two at Randwick. If you are looking to punch any holes in her credentials, she was beaten twice in Queensland. First up by Isotope who finished off like she had been shot out of a cannon before running third in the 3YO Guineas behind Aim. The quinella there settled out the back so she was brave to fight on given the shape of the race and pattern of the meeting. She was also subsequently found to have been galloped on. It’s also significant that she is one of only a handful of genuine sprinters in this field of fillies, most with grand finals out towards the mile. Very hard to beat.
Dangers: After the boom that was on 3. Hungry Heart ahead of last preparation, she went winless in four starts. Dame Giselle was too sharp for her over 1200m and 1400m before Montefilia overpowered her at the end of a mile. Willing to forget her 1000 Guineas flop. It was too bad to be true. Has trialled well this time back but maps to give away a head start to a couple with a sharper turn of foot. 11. Elizabeel was heavily backed in the Bondi Stakes the last time we saw her but failed in the heavy conditions. Should have beaten Forbidden Loves prior to that. Kiwi 2. Kahma Lass is a Group One winner over the mile and will be strong late with any luck from a low draw. 4. Vangelic warrants respect.
How to play it: Away Game WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
"She just gets everything in her favour..."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) February 11, 2021
|Race 9 - 6:15PM RANVET HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
2. Poetic Charmer beat 1. Thy Kingdom Come the last time the pair clashed and looks to be going just as well this campaign. He ran ninth last start but liked his work through the line and there was more depth in that Magic Millions feature compared to his task here. Shouldn't have any excuses with James McDonald doing the steering and the Snowden stable are upbeat about his chances.
Dangers: Thy Kingdom Come is bursting to win now third up after two excellent runs this time back. First up he felt the pinch late having loomed before finishing third in the Listed Carrington Stakes behind Bandersnatch and Quackerjack. Can only run well. 3. Academy hit the line hard first up over an unsuitable 1100m behind Tailleur. That bodes well for his campaign as he creeps out in trip and the scratchings should see him spear to the front and get some sort of control.
How to play it: Poetic Charmer WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT