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Newcastle Winners - Tips For Saturday 14th November

By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Newcastle.

The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a good track.

Race 1 - 1:05PM SAGE PAINTING MAX LEES CLASSIC (900 METRES)

13. Sliders pinged out of the barriers in her only trial at Randwick over 735m. She was restrained to sit in behind the leaders before finding the line without Rachel King moving on her. The heat was won by Hide Your Heart, scratched from Saturday’s Golden Gift so we can’t get a line on the race form, but the daughter of Street Boss couldn’t have done much more in her only public appearance. Being a daughter of Glissade makes her a half-sister to Group One winner Flit as well the well performed Flow. King sticks with the two-year-old on debut and given the early speed she showed in her heat, you’d expect her to put herself in the first couple over 900m from the middle draw.

Dangers: 1. Baby Wong put his rivals away very quickly in his Scone trial. The Press Statement colt, trained by Stephen Jones, sat wide throughout but showed a lovely turn of foot to put two lengths on his nearest challenger. Jockey Aaron Bullock stays on from the trial. Baby Wong would be top pick had he drawn better. 7. Carartie looks the best chance at odds. The David Atkins-trained filly won her trial easily enough, and clocked a time a couple of lengths quicker than 12. Pippa Charlotte’s heat. 8. Collier Bay comes out of the same trial as Sliders but was under a lot more pressure.

How to play it: Sliders WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS


Sliders trialling at Randwick

Race 2 - 1:40PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

8. Monica’s Star got too far back a fortnight ago at Rosehill in a Highway Handicap won by Art Cadeau having drawn off the track. It was a heavy track too. The four-year-old mare ran as well as the set up allowed which was a midfield finish. She opened hard in the market before justifiably, easing late. Prior to that the Wilkes-trained galloper blew her rivals away at Port Macquarie with an exceptional turn of foot. Back onto a dry surface, from a low draw and out to 1300m should see her replicate her first up effort and that puts her in the finish in this. The daughter of Dr Doute’s has only had seven starts and only now is she starting to realise her potential. Louise Day stays on which sees her carry the minimum of 54kg.

Dangers: 2. Lord Heron is a talented front-runner. If three-kilo claimer Cejay Graham can offset the wide draw in the first 200m to spear to the front, he can win. Was a big winner at Moree first up last preparation and although is a year between runs, his two trials have been great. In his two prior wins, when trained by Jason Coyle, he took the scalps of Sakura and Think It Over. 9. Brave Enough will give away a big start but this is a target race. Closed off hard late at Newcastle first up and his form through Leave Me Some last preparation ties in neatly with Monica’s Star. 14. Cecilia is also lightly-raced and going the right way while 6. Northern Knight maps well and has form around the right horses.

How to play it: Monica’s Star WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS


Monica’s Star last start in a Highway

Race 3 - 2:15PM SENPOS POINT OF SALE BENCHMARK 88 HANDICAP (1850 METRES)

7. Vadiyann resumes after 47 weeks on the sidelines having been so impressive on his Australian debut back in December last year. That was off a 64 week break. The French import sat outside of a hot speed set by Fun Fact yet relished it, holding on to beat Guise. The six-year-old has had two trials this time back, winning the latest of those at Randwick by a widening 3.5 lengths. It was a hit out that suggested he’d at least repeat the performance we last saw from him, which would likely be enough to win this race too. There won’t be the same level of pressure here but Tim Clark, who rode Vadiyann in his Randwick win and two trials since, will still roll along knowing that this stayer’s asset is his sustained gallop.

Dangers: 5. House Of Cartier finished third to Vadiyann near 12 months ago beaten 1.2L. Two starts prior to that, John Sargent’s five-year-old won this exact race. And she won it comprehensively. Thought she was ticking over beautifully prior to last start where she was disappointing at Rosehill. Perhaps she just lost sight of the bunny. This is easier and she can bounce back with Brenton Avdulla back in the saddle. 6. Fortress Command returned a gelding this time back and has won two from three, the latest of those last Saturday in a sit-sprint at Rosehill. Like the progression out to 1850m now fourth up. 4. Laure Me In and 3. Opacity rate mentions.

How to play it: Vadiyann WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS


Vadiyann winning his most recent trial

Race 4 - 2:50PM GUARDIAN SAFETY SOLUTIONS 3YO & 4YO BENCHMARK 72 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

6. St Covet’s Spirit has only won one from 13 but she has placed twice at Group Three level. Both of those were on good tracks too. Take away her wet track runs and instead of 13:1-2-3, you get a record of 6:1-2-2. In one of those G3 placings she split Dawn Passage and Icebath – that was the Hawkesbury Guineas where she started $11, and comfortably accounted for her stablemate Mo’s Crown (scratched). The four-year-old is perhaps more a 1400m horse but first up over 1200m from a soft draw gives her the chance to overcome that. Like the pairing with Jason Collette too. First up last preparation she ran fifth on a heavy track in the G3 PJ Bell Stakes. Here she is in a BM72 this time back and the market has completely ignored her.

Dangers: 15. Anethole was the hidden run of The Kosciuszko. Despite beginning well, he had to be dragged back to last from the wide draw. He finished ninth in a race where there was four lengths from first to 13th, with Punters Intelligence showing that he clocked the second quickest last 600m (34.45s) of the race, only bettered by the winner It’s Me. 1. Superium finds himself back in grade. He savaged the line first up at Randwick, racing in restricted room. Gets a dry deck which he needs. He keeps finding new excuses to get beaten though! 5. Surreal Step, 3. Pandano and bolter 17. Isalute for the wider exotics.

How to play it: St Covet’s Spirit WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and Anethole WIN ($17) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


St Covet’s Spirit in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas

Race 5 - 3:25PM HUNGERFORD HILL BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

1. Spirit Ridge has 61kg and a wide draw but there’s every chance he is simply better than his rivals here. He is the highest rated runner and has the scope to go forward again once he gets out in trip. The tricky gate would be offset with a positive ride as the likely leader 4. Ulusaba has drawn to his inside. Outside of that, there isn’t another obvious leader. The import made an immediate impression in Australia winning on the Kensington track beating Agassi and Itz Lily. The six-year-old has trialled four times, all over 1200m, which should give him a great base for the mile first up. Mark Newnham’s go-to jockey Josh Parr has ridden Spirit Ridge in the latest three hit outs and jumps on here after Robbie Dolan rode him on his Aussie debut.

Dangers: Something has suddenly twigged for five-year-old gelding 13. Super. The Mark Minervini-trained galloper has won his past two, both at Newcastle, by a combined margin of eight lengths. This is harder again but he’s found the right race. 3. Baanone is capable on his day but will need the race run to suit. 9. Prospectus has been racing well in Queensland but early favourite here? No thanks. Ulusaba gets on speed favours and could run a race from in front.

How to play it: Spirit Ridge EACH WAY ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS


Spirit Ridge winning on his Australian debut

Race 6 - 4:05PM NEW ZEALAND BLOODSTOCK NJC 3YO SPRING STAKES (1600 METRES)

9. Perfect Radiance was bottled up on the fence at Randwick last start and like the way she found the line when she saw daylight. The daughter of Snitzel is two from two on good tracks, with her two defeats both on wet surfaces. Imagine this mile feature on her home track has been targeted by Kris Lees all along. Her win on debut at odds on against older horses earmarked her as a filly with black type potential. She was then heavily backed at Randwick but didn’t handle the heavy track to be beaten five lengths by Peltzer and Overlord. Resumed this preparation with a dominant Newcastle victory beating two subsequent winners in Knight and Bluff ‘N’ Bluster while fourth and sixth since ran the quinella at Wyong. She’s well found at the top of the early market but deservedly so. She’s pretty smart and it’s all still ahead of her.

Dangers: 2. Ellsberg was left flatfooted when the sprint went on in a very slowly run race at Rosehill last start. Like the way he rallied again late to run second behind Enchanted Heart. He won a deep race at Warwick Farm on debut prior to that and gives the impression the mile will suit. 1. Real Peace and 3. Namazu both come out of the Bondi Stakes. The latter can only improve back on top of the ground, while Real Peace’s ratings took a jump so he’s suited by the set weights. 10. Obvious Step is still a work in progress but the talent is there to win a race like this while the mile could bring out the best of 4. Kukeracha.

How to play it: Perfect Radiance WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


Perfect Radiance last start

Race 7 - 4:45PM TAB THE HUNTER (1300 METRES)

6. Sweet Deal signalled that she was in for a huge spring with a first up win over 1100m in the G3 Toy Show back in August but nothing has fallen into place since. She was burnt off by Haut Brion Her second up in the Sheraco (there’s no shame in that now!) before the speed was again too hot for her in the Golden Pendant. Last start she ran bravely in the Nivision but she struggles in heavy ground. The six-year-old is coming to the end of a busy preparation, which is the knock, but otherwise there are no excuses for her in this. She’s drawn perfectly, gets a bone dry track and Nash Rawiller stays aboard. The last time she raced here she won the G3 Tibbie. I’d suggest that the 1300m is just about the perfect trip for the daughter of Casino Prince too (4:2-2-0).

Dangers: Most of this field are capable on their day. 3. Ranier looks set to peak third up after a forgive run second up with 62kg on a heavy track. The Kosciuszko runner up 9. Redouble gave It’s Me 5.5kg and was only collared late. He's better than a knockout hope here, but will need luck from the draw. 1. Trumbull resumed with a dominant win in the Sydney Stakes despite travelling deep throughout. Might have to do similar here given the draw. 11. Signore Fox wasn’t far away in that same race and his enigmatic nature always makes him dangerous. It’s a similar case for 5. Tactical Advantage. Can we forgive 4. Special Reward from the Sydney Stakes? He jumped hard in the market but was too bad to be true. His last win was at this track. 10. Cuba never gave his rivals a look in last start.

How to play it: Sweet Deal EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


Sweet Deal in the Nivison

Race 8 - 5:25PM BASS FLOOR F&M BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

7. Strawb is better than a benchmark-level mare. Not sure how far she’ll go but it’s well beyond this grade. Especially now, touch wood, that she is jumping cleanly from the barriers. The five-year-old has won three of five for Nathan Doyle, and all in spectacular fashion. The latest two of those were both on her home track of Newcastle over 1400m, where she blew her rivals away. Her turn of foot is that of a Group-class galloper. Forget she ever ran on the Kensington track back in July where she started an easing favourite. It was a meeting where you needed to be nailed to the fence to be any hope. Add into the mix that it was a heavy track and she looked to have come to the end of her preparation. The ominous sign for her rivals is that she has trialled better than ever.

Dangers: 6. Luna Mia has been a little hard to catch after winning three of her first five starts but she broke the track record at Scone in the one win since then. She has the talent. Everything just needs to fall into place. Liked her return at Newcastle where the leader 5. Great News got it too easy in front. Great News subsequently wasn’t far at Randwick while Luna Mia has been kept fresh. There was a lot to like about the way 10. Domed ran first up at Newcastle, her first run for Jeff Englebrecht. There might be another win in her shortly. 1. Enchanted Heart is flying and can be given another peach from Nash Rawiller from the inside draw. 3. Miss Einstein isn’t just a wet tracker but may have been flattered first up.

How to play it: Strawb WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 9 - 6:00PM HUNTER VALLEY PREMIUM MEATS T-BONE STEAKS BENCHMARK 88 HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

7. Hilo led up last start and beat his rivals fair and square, many of which are here. Don’t overlook the obvious with him, as he draws to get the run of the race. The four-year-old split Fituese and Masked Crusader first up before smashing the line behind Athiri second up. He won third up and can only hold his form now. He has returned as well as ever. Rachel King sticks with the son of Lonhro and he can only run well again.

Dangers: Have got plenty of respect for 9. Through The Cracks on the strength of his return behind Hilo. He can only improve off that and reunites with James McDonald with the pair last combining to win the Provincial Championships Final in brilliant fashion. The knock is the price. Grey mare 10. Romani Girl is a knockout fresh while 11. Asharani at the very least rates a mention. 12. Edison will need some luck form the draw but with 5. Chat being conservatively ridden, he might be able to get across.

How to play it: Hilo WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS


Hilo, Edison, Through The Cracks and Inanup last start

All the fields, form and replays for TAB The Hunter Day at Newcastle on Saturday

 

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