By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick (Kensington) on Saturday.
The rail is out 2m and the form has been done for a Good track.
|Race 1 - 11:40AM CELLARBRATIONS HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
There is a case to be made for most runners here in what looks a very deep race but 3. Able Hill gets the nod with the advantage of barrier 2. The I Am Invincible colt won well on debut at Gosford despite doing early work and wanting to lay out late. He held off the subsequent Inglis Millennium winner Prime Star while well beaten back in fourth was Fayerra, still a maiden but she ties the form into the better two-year-old races. Like the way Bjorn Baker’s youngster just kept finding the line. Able Hill has been back to the trials since that winning debut back in January with his rider here, Jason Collett, letting the two-year-old balance up and find the line very strongly late. He looks to be the one the early market has underestimated.
Dangers: Could have been swayed by first starter 7. Velorum had he drawn a gate. It’s tricky for the full brother to Stronger out there but he looked a natural in his two trials and has the Hawkes polish. 1. Wild Ruler won the Inglis Nursery convincingly on debut but the form from that race has been very ordinary and he pays the price at the weights for that win. Has trialled up nicely but he’s too well found. Love the way 11. Newsreader and 4. Ceasers Palace charged through the line in their respective trials but could find the 1000m a touch sharp. 10. Ballistic Lover sneaks in with just 52.5kg having run second to Bartley on debut and has trialled sweetly since.
How to play it: How to play it: Able Hill EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Able Hill winning on debut at Gosford
|Race 2 - 12:15PM COOLMORE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
1. Canasta has the fresh legs in this, and still plenty of upside. Bjorn Baker’s progressive stayer tackles this third up and the progression out to 1800m now is perfect. He parked outside of the lead at this track over 1550m second up and like how he put his rivals away with a sustained gallop to the line, beating Agassi. Josh Parr has ridden the four-year-old twice for two wins, one of those being last start. That’s significant as he profiles as a horse that needs to be let stride, find his rhythm and click through his gears as he turns for home. Especially with the big weights he is accustomed to carrying. The wide draw looks ideal, allowing Parr to roll to the front in his own time. 6. Gone By looks the other natural leader kicking up from the inside, which is some query o the level of control Canasta will get.
Dangers: 2. Yonkers was five weeks between runs last week and thought he was very game under the circumstances. The little knock being back to 1800m from 2000m. 5. New Arrangement is trending the right way and his Welsh Legend form ties into Yonkers. 7. Amitto is five runs into her campaign but only seems to improve every time she steps out. Was a very soft winner on a heavy track at Warwick Farm last start. This is her stiffest test yet but she has the talent to round this field up from the back. 4. California Longbow has won third up at his last two campaigns so still might need this second up.
How to play it: Canasta WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Canasta winning at this track last start
|Race 3 - 12:50PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
8. Foxie La Belle was beaten four lengths in a Highway last start but with even luck, it’s not a stretch to suggest she just about wins. And that was in a race controlled by the front two that fought out the finish. That’s certainly no knock on the race going forward though as suspect it’ll provide a stack of Highway winners over the coming months. The overall time stacked up well against the BM88 and G3 Hall Mark Stakes on the same day. Prior to that run, Foxie La Belle had been competitive in a couple of handy provincial races won by Zakat and Le Lude. Her first up run was a cracker too off a 14 month break. The barrier isn’t kind but it’s the reason we are getting the price and at double figure odds the reward outweighs the risk.
Dangers: 3. Jailbreak got a long way back in that same Highway but found the line strongly with Punters Intelligence revealing that he ran the equal fastest last 200m split across the entire meeting (11.48s, the same as Kementari). The 1400m looks perfect now from a draw that’ll see him settle much closer. Kody Nestor has the three-year-old flying. 1. Toro Toro beat both Foxie La Belle and Jailbreak home there last start but creeps up in the weights and doesn’t map to get as cosy a time in front in this. He can win but he’s skinny enough. 4. Perfect Pitch has the conviction of winning just one from 25 but did a good job back to 1200m at Moruya last start.
How to play it: Foxie La Belle WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and 8,3 QUINELLA Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Look for Foxie La Belle and Jailbreak
|Race 4 - 1:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
Would be declaring 5. Fituese unbeatable had she drawn better. It looks ordinary on paper but there’s so much speed engaged in this, as you’d expect over 1000m, that there’s every chance Fituese will have a three wide running line to slot into. Otherwise, Rachel King has a couple of decisions to make in the early stages. Having ridden the filly in all three of the three-year-old’s wins, King will know she’s on the best horse. Fituese was crunched to start favourite in the Listed Gosford Guineas won by Hightail last preparation but perhaps it all came too quick for her or the 1200m found her out. The daughter of Deep Field was outstanding in winning a recent barrier trial at Randwick with King barely having to move on her.
Dangers: Where to turn to for second is a lottery. 4. Brazenpine was squeezed out at the start, didn’t handle the heavy track and was slow to recover first up. We can very confidently forgive her that blemish. She’ll park in behind the speed be strong late with her form last campaign good enough to win this. Her early price is very generous. 10. Axe easily beat a subsequent winner in Bollywood first up at Wyong and has the scope to prove himself at this level. The map is ugly though, with both of Axe’s wins coming from in front. 9. L’Cosmo has run nine placings in 11 starts! She sets up to be in the money somewhere again.
How to play it: Fituese WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
BEST BET 🚨
"It's a gamble I'm willing to take as she's a very good filly."@BradJGray says his best bet on the Kensington track has the talent to overcome a tricky barrier @tabcomau @royalrandwick pic.twitter.com/rS38aXZg0p
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) April 30, 2020
|Race 5 - 2:05PM INGLIS BROODMARE SALE 10 MAY SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
By my count, nine of the eleven runners could lead this field on their day which lends itself to being set up for a stalker. Enter 7. November Man. The asterisk with the five-year-old being that he wants a dry track. There is some rain forecast ahead of Saturday so be mindful of that. This Anthony Cummings-trained gelding will be letting it all unfold in front of him and get the last crack at his rivals. He is a dynamic horse with conditions to suit and given how well he runs on the Kensington track having run top three in eight of his 10 runs there, it’s unlikely to be a coincidence that Cummings chooses to kick off his sprinter in this. He is never asked to do anything in his trials so don’t read anything into his one quiet hitout.
Dangers: This is a much better set up for 1. Miss Invincible back to 1100m drawn low. Be very forgiving of her first up flop when posted over 1200m. Won three of six last preparation and all of those wins were from the front. Will need to cross 3. Kylease to lead this field though, which appears unlikely. Kylease always trials well being a speed horse and this time back has been no different. The draw brought about her undoing first up last campaign but won’t be the excuse this time back. 6. Burning Crown hadn’t looked comfortable on wet ground prior to his Warwick Farm win first up which adds plenty of merit to the fighting victory.
How to play it: November Man EACH WAY ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
November Man winning this track and trip last preparation
|Race 6 - 2:45PM RANVET'S POWER FORMULA HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
1. So Taken is going a lot better than the bare numbers in the form guide suggest. It’s been a while between drinks for the four-year-old that won three of her first five starts in Australia but has only found herself in two BM78s in her 11 subsequent starts whereby she finished third to Prime Candidate and Dawn Dawn before a luckless third to Pinup Miss. First up this preparation she finished alongside Royal Celebration before clocking the second fastest last 600m in the G3 Birthday Card. Four weeks later she appeared again in a BM88 behind Snitz hitting the line sweetly having been held up for most of the straight. James McDonald takes over here and although will get back from the wide draw needing a few things to fall her way, it’s the perfect race for her.
Dangers: Nothing was found to be amiss with 5. Rocha Clock after running a shocker in the G3 James Carr. She is a talented filly, and was confidently supported in that race, so it’d be no surprise to see her bounce back in this grade but she’s now very skinny odds to take that leap of faith. It was at this track last preparation she bombed the start by four lengths and still rounded up her rivals. Expect to see her ridden quietly second up. On forgiveness, 3. Sakura was set an enormous task first up at Warwick Farm on a heavy track with 62kg.
How to play it: So Taken WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) April 30, 2020
|Race 7 - 3:25PM QUINCY SELTZER HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
Whether 3. Improvement leads or tucks in behind the leaders, this race looks to play out nicely for the six-year-old. She was brave first up at Warwick Farm on heavy ground with the winner Bolero King getting the drop on her. Her record suggests she improves second up (3:1-2-0) and the two seconds were defeats by the barest of margins. Last preparation she was edged out by Sweet Scandal in this grade of race, with Greyworm in third. She ended that preparation running second to Miss Fabulass in a Listed race at Doomben. She’s a classy mare and has certainly earnt the 59kg impost. Found it interesting that all five of her career wins have been from in front and leading front-running rider Tim Clark is the man booked by trainer Gary Portelli for this.
Dangers: It’s rocks or diamonds with 1. Ready To Prophet but the fact remains she won a Listed race two preparations ago first up beating Madam Rouge, having had three trials. That’s the same set up here. Wouldn’t be shocked if she ran first or last. 4. Into The Abyss didn’t have any luck behind Mizzy at Group level first up last campaign and two trials, the latest over 1045m, look to have this mare quite forward. 9. Hilo is a very fit, consistent three-year-old and although he fits into this race well, the market seems to overcuddle him. Got the impression from 8. Hightail’s trial that he might need this run.
How to play it: Improvement WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Improvement first up at Warwick Farm
|Race 8 - 4:05PM TAB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
12. Bandersnatch was a late scratching before last week’s Hawkesbury Guineas having been very heavily backed late which would have seen him jump favourite. The three-year-old won three from four last preparation and gave his rivals a touch up first up at Hawkesbury over 1300m running slick time. There were two other 1300m races on the day, both maidens but Bandersnatch clocked an overall time 9L and 11L faster than those. That was before winning easily over the 1400m on the Kensington track. The son of Casino Prince has trialled well on two occasions and given Guineas was a target race, Gerald Ryan will have Bandersnatch ready to go fresh up. Shouldn’t have any trouble rolling across to take up the running with regular rider Brenton Avdulla in the saddle.
Dangers: Had 6. Outrageous pegged as a coming winner after an excellent return at Randwick where the wide barrier proved costly. The four-year-old clocked the second quickest last 600m split all day (34.09s), which was 2.5L quicker than the next best in the race won by Snitz. Have mapped him to follow Bandersnatch across. He’s a big threat. 3. Phaistos was nutted by his stablemate Ranier first up. It was an encouraging return but he stays at 1400m, jumps 6.5kg and draws awkwardly. He’ll be giving his two main dangers a huge start. . 10. Asharani and 13. Lisdoonvarna next best with 4. Tamarack and 5. Nicci’s Gold both capable of placing at big odds.
How to play it: Bandersnatch WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Bandersnatch winning this track and trip last preparation
|Race 9 - 4:45PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
13. California Salto hit the line in the G3 James Carr Stakes last start on All Aged Stakes day finishing fifth behind Rubisaki. That form, albeit a three-year-old fillies race in which she jumped $61, looks a strong reference for this very winnable BM78. St Covet’s Spirit ran third there before backing up to rattle home into second behind Dawn Passage in the Hawkesbury Guineas last Saturday. Kerrin McEvoy takes over from Sam Clipperton for this and should be able to punch up and hold a midfield position from the inside draw. Last preparation she started hard in the market in two Listed races in Melbourne, beaten by Akari in one and Xilong in the other. It’s fair to say she is a peg below the top fillies but that’s good enough to still give this a shake.
Dangers: 6. Juventus was a dominant winner this track and trip last start but the form from that race has been pretty horrid so he was perhaps flattered. Such is the depth of this race though, he still warrants respect. 14. Wild About Her is well exposed being a five-year-old mare with 20 starts under her belt but liked her return in town. Will need to run a PB but maybe she can off that first up effort. 10. Word For Word was the definition of ‘every possible’ last Saturday but is on the back up and James McDonald sticks. 9. Agassi is very consistent but doesn’t win out of turn and is short in early markets. 7. Oakfield Captain the best smokey back on top of the ground.
How to play it: California Salto WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
California Salto last start in Group company