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Kensington Winners - Tips For Saturday 18th July

By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick’s Kensington meeting on Saturday.

The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a Heavy track.

Race 1 - 11:40AM EVEREST CARNIVAL ON SALE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

Everything we have seen from the Gwenda Markwell-trained 5. Stolen Glance suggests she’ll relish stepping out to 1400m. The two-year-old daughter of Artie Schiller brings provincial form, with three of her four starts on her home track Kembla Grange, but this isn’t a deep race. First up she had no luck against older horses behind Bowery Breeze before driving to the line late to just miss to Fenech, again against older horses. There is a little query over her on a wet track having failed on a heavy deck at Warwick Farm in the rich Inglis Millennium but she was tipped straight out after that so willing to give her the benefit of the doubt. There doesn’t look to be much speed so hoping Tim Clark can use the soft draw.

Dangers: 6. Giovanna Run ran second at this track first up but the times stacked up very favourably across the meeting and the gap back to third suggests a win is very close. Can’t see her settling anywhere other than last, however, from the wide draw. 1. Bazooka wasn’t flash first up but drops back to his own age second up and could even lead this field, as opposed to being flopped out the back. Can bounce back sharply in a much more suitable race. Don’t think 8. Duais comes out of a particularly deep Newcastle maiden, and went around at $41, but loved her work through the line having been left flatfooted. She’s a half to Baccarat Baby so will relish 1400m and beyond, as will 2. Squanto .

How to play it: Stolen Glance WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


Stolen Glance at Kembla Grange last start

Race 2 - 12:15PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

8. Skara Brae smoked to the line last start in a Highway Handicap and after the six scratchings, barrier 11 doesn't look as nearly as daunting as barrier 17. Jason Collett is brimming with confidence at the moment and if he get a cart into the race, she'll be hard to hold out late.

Dangers:  The undefeated 4. Mr Magical is the ‘x factor’ in the race but this will be very different to the six and seven horse races he has contested to date. 7. Foxie La Belle best of the rest.

How to play it: Skara Brae WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Race 3 - 12:50PM DE BORTOLI WINES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

The early price about 2. Emeralds is just too much of a temptation to resist. This is the same Emeralds that first up last preparation was beaten three lengths by Flit in a Group Two, crossing the line with Libertini. The race turned into a sprint home with her last 600m of 34.61s equal to that of the winner and only inferior to the runner up Lyre. That wasn’t an easy meeting to make ground at either. Forget her subsequent failure when jumping straight to the mile after a setback, and she was found to have bled. First up the preparation prior she was on the heels of Yao Dash and Funstar. The query is the 1100m being a touch sharp but with 54.5kg after the claim, on the back of two outstanding trials and a soft draw, she can only run well. Has always been an underrated filly and this might prove to be the race to cash in on that.

Dangers: There is no denying that Emeralds will need to be on her game to topple unbeaten filly Tailleur, as the market does suggest. She ran the best closing splits all day last start (Punters Intelligence) to gun down Switched on the line backing up what she did at Gosford on debut back in January. Deserves to be a short priced favourite. 6. Sweeping Statement was disadvantaged by a rail friendly Canterbury two back before the leaders controlled the race at Randwick last start, with Edison subsequently franking that form line since. This is much more suitable. 12. Stargirl with 52.5kg on her back from a soft draw could see her pinch a place at big odds.

How to play it: Emeralds WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 4 - 1:25PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

We know 3. Orcien’s level but that’s good enough to knock off this race. The four-year-old is racing as well as ever this preparation and only has to hold his recent form to be in the finish again. It’s hard to poke too many holes in his case. He presents on the quick back up and won on the seven day turnaround two starts ago, maps to get a lovely trail in the race and has won out to 1710m in the past. Has raced well out to 1800m too. He is the type of horse that pops up once or twice a preparation and on the strength off his second to Edison last Saturday at Rosehill, he is the horse to beat. Brenton Avdulla goes back on and had guided him to his last two wins.

Dangers: 6. Itz Lily is ready to win but the barrier cruels her chances. The mare was excellent both first and second up this time back, savaging the line late, before putting in an ordinary one third up. Was allowed to balance up and hit the line in her latest outing, running the second quickest last 600m of the race behind only Fulmina. 11. Le Lude and 12. Azarmin both ran well in that same race too. They slip in with a very light weight and shouldn’t be underestimated, particularly the latter given her price. Azarmin ran second to Lewis prior to that. 2. Kiss The Bride towed herself into the race last start and looks set to peak now third up.

How to play it: Orcien WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


Orcien last Saturday behind Edison

Race 5 - 2:00PM QUINCY SELTZER HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

7. Toryjoy went along at a brutal clip in front last start yet was still only collared late by 6. High Opinion and 5. Matowi. She drops 3kg from that, strips at her peak fourth up and only has a half length margin to turnaround. It’s a compelling case that she can hold those two at bay this time. Kathy O’Hara rides this front running five-year-old better than anyone, letting her stride in front. Had to burn petrol in the early stages last start to cross Dylan’s Romance but that won’t be the case here, at least on paper. It turned into a slog home with the winner High Opinion clocking a pedestrian 39.29s to win the race. That played right into his hands. Toryjoy boasts a 4:1-1-2 record at this track and maps to give these the slip turning for home.

Dangers: 1. Frankely Awesome jumped 12 rating points after winning the Listed McKell Cup last start, beating subsequent Grafton Cup winner Sixties Groove. Drops back 200m, rises 4kg, even after the claim, and will be giving away a start from the awkward draw. Can win but will need to go to another level again. 2. Herengawe wasn’t far off Frankely Awesome last start and looks set to peak third up. Maps to stalk the speed. As stated earlier, the tempo last start played right into the hands of High Opinion and he still only scrambled home. Meets both Toryjoy and Matowi worse at the weights too. Matowi only has a short dash, which was evident last start when he cruised into the race but couldn’t put it away.

How to play it: Toryjoy WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Race 6 - 2:40PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

2. Mushaireb tailed off last in the Civic Stakes last start but prepared to wipe that. He was jagged back in the field, which he resented in the early stages, before losing interest late. The five-year-old drops back to benchmark level here having raced in Listed company his last three starts. He had trialled well prior to resuming no doubt prompting the Freedman yard to run in black type first up where he was specced at longer odds. Have always held the opinion that this gelding thrives in high pressure races. A sit sprint does not end well for him. With that in mind, this race sets up perfectly with Rachel King likely to tag 1. Man Of Peace across. Expect Man Of Peace, deep into a preparation, back in trip and with Louise Day claiming, to run along. We’re taking Mushaireb on trust but at the price, happy to take that gamble.

Dangers: 4. Handspun is flying this time back and got her dues at Randwick last start with Tommy Berry squeezing her through a needle eye gap. She was potentially visually flattered as the leaders went quickly before falling into a hole late but her last 600m of 37.49s was near five lengths quicker than the next best. Jumps another grade here but no knock as the race favourite.

How to play it: Mushaireb WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS


Forget Mushaireb ever ran first up

Race 7 - 3:20PM TAB LIVE VISION HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

The shape of this race plays right into the hands of 2. Black Magnum. 1. Witherspoon and 4. Spaceboy only know one way so something has to give late, and they aren’t the only two in this race capable of making a play for the lead. Black Magnum will just camp in behind this speed and get the last crack. The four-year-old has an outstanding fresh record (4:3-1-0) while his 1000m stats (5:1-2-1) are equally as impressive. Add into the mix that the son of Magnus loves wet tracks too. He didn’t win again after first up last preparation but was beaten by the barrier at Canberra while his second to Star Boy as Muswellbrook reads well in hindsight. Clicked through his gears nicely for Tom Sherry in a recent trial, and the 3kg claimer, new to town, stays on.

Dangers: 11. Rosina Kojonup is another runner that’ll have a big influence on how this race sets up. She is very fast herself and has drawn barrier 1 with just 52.kg on her back. The four-year-old hasn’t raced since December 2018 but looked full of running in a recent Warwick Farm barrier trial. The last time she raced she started $3.40 in the Listed Gosford Guineas. There’s no knock on the talent of Witherspoon and Spaceboy, with both in career best form, but they are equally one dimensional, likely to be each other’s detriment in this. Witherspoon is the hit the ground running type while Spaceboy keeps building so perhaps the latter is forced to take a trail.

How to play it: Black Magnum WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


Black Magnum trialling at Randwick recently

Race 8 - 4:00PM RANVET HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

7. Strawb’s is the most talented horse here, and by some margin. The gamble is whether she’ll still be on her best behaviour away from her home track. Her latest two wins, both at Newcastle, have been devastating. The dominant winning margins have been backed up on the clock, suggesting she is at least a Saturday class horse but if she continues on the same upwards spiral, could be better than that too. The four-year-old in the hands of savvy young trainer Nathan Doyle did have a nasty habit of missing the kick, which appears to have been eradicated but we’ll only know for sure after the gates open on Saturday away from her familiar surroundings (and barrier attendants). Punters Intelligence showed her last 600m last start of 33.35s, albeit parked behind a gentle tempo, was comfortably the quickest across the entire meeting.

Dangers: 8. Vitesse was let stride to the front last start and relished that role, rolling along at a good clip yet still holding off all challengers, including 1. Threeood and 3. High Low Bet. There doesn’t look to be an easy lead on offer here but doubt Brenton Avdulla looks to change much. Threeood bounced back with the blinkers on last start and can be trusted to hold that form given how genuine she is. 2. Madam Legend was gifted a very soft lead when dropping back to the provincials last start and justified her $1.65 SP to never look in danger. Beat Agassi home prior to that despite finding the 1550m a touch beyond her. Has been kept fresh again, which appears to be working for her. 12. Capri Of Tuffy plummets in weight to 50kg and is well placed to sneak into the minors.

How to play it: Strawb WIN ($2.60TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS


Strawb winning at Newcastle last start

Race 9 - 4:40PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1550 METRES)

11. Le Gai Soleil has won three on the bounce and John O’Shea hasn’t hid his admiration for this three-year-old filly suggesting she’s of black type quality. Made a very easy transition to city class last start having won comfortably at Kembla the start prior, when scooting down the outside fence at this same track and trip. Being a half to mudlark Danzdanzdance it’s no surprise she is relishing the wet tracks at the moment. When a horse is as short as her you don’t want any negatives so the two things to consider are the inside draw come the last race of the meeting where there’s every chance the jockeys will be looking to scout wide, and the query as whether she is looking for a staying trip now fourth up. She is untapped though and meets a field of BM78 horses that look to have just about reached their level.

Dangers: 5. Adana was a shade unlucky not to have beaten Agassi last start when bottled up behind runners. Prior to that he travelled deep throughout again behind Agassi. Can be hard to catch but a repeat of his last two efforts sees him hardest to beat and the wide draw might be an advantage come Race 9. 13. Derbari won comfortably at Kembla last start and belted a field at Hawkesbury, albeit in maiden company, in his only run on heavy ground. He’s fit, has 52kg, will settle in front of Le Gai Soleil and appears to love wet ground. 7. Zourhea is building towards another win and beat Bring The Magic and Toryjoy in her only previous run over the Kensington 1550m.

How to play it: Le Gai Soleil WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS


Le Gai Soleil winning last start on the Kenso

All the fields, form and replays for the Kensington track at Randwick on Saturday

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