By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Hawkesbury.
The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a good track.
|Race 1 - 11:50AM ST JOHNS PARK BOWLING CLUB 2YO CLARENDON STAKES (1400 METRES)|
This race has fallen into the lap of 1. Gleneagles. The talented two-year-old has found a home with David Payne, having formerly been trained by Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young, and the Capitalist colt won his first start for Payne over 1000m. Like the way he rounded up the placegetters Overpass and Belle O’Ballee, both subsequent winners at their next start. Overpass has won twice since. In his first preparation Gleneagles split She’s All Class and Swift Witness in the Wyong Magic Millions feature before running fifth to Queen of Wizardy at Eagle Farm. Most of these youngsters are in the same boat regarding the sharp distance rise from their last start so not going to hold that against Gleneagles. Looks the winner.
Dangers: 2. Aslav is the only other runner here also with a win to his name. There is a query over the depth of the maiden he won at Hawkesbury but he was going away across the line so 1400m looks to suit. 5. Caratie has the best grounding for the race with a 1400m third at Kembla under his belt, where he started $2.60. Doesn’t have the class of Gleneagles but don’t underestimate that set up advantaged. 4. Hoover Lucy had her chance on debut but was no match for Libertini’s little sister De An Andretti but her breeding suggests she’s better placed over this journey.
How to play it: Gleneagles WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"This race has fallen into his lap, it's his to lose."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) April 30, 2021
|Race 2 - 12:25PM BLAKES MARINE BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
1. Kirwan’s Lane looks well placed to win first up, just as he did last preparation over 1550m at Canterbury. That was the beginning of a preparation that saw him win three of his six starts, which included a victory at Randwick in BM88 company where he beat Spirit Ridge with a big gap to the third placed Missybeel. Forget his last start sixth in Queensland. Resuming in BM78 grade and carrying 58.5kg after the claim of Campbell Rawiller, he sets up nicely. Particularly on the back of two eye-catching trial hit outs, winning the latest of those. Throw into the mix how well the John O’Shea yard is going at the moment and Kirwan’s Lane becomes a very appealing bet the early price.
Dangers: 10. Ruby Tuesday led all the way at Hawkesbury last start. That’s not a sentence I ever imagined writing. Tom Marquand has since flown home but the booking of Tim Clark is one of intent from Gary Portelli, suggesting that the same tactics will be adopted if she gets away cleanly. 2. Spencer jumps straight out to 1500m from 1100m first up on a wet track. He has slipped the net of bookies. Suspect he’ll run much better than his odds suggest. 7. Saigon only just missed behind The Irishman first up before failing to back that up at Canterbury. 6. Luvoir and 8. The Grinder are also winning hopes.
How to play it: Kirwan’s Lane WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Kirwan’s Lane latest trial
|Race 3 - 1:00PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
This preparation for 1. Golden Gorge has all been about getting to this Highway Handicap fourth up out to 1400m. It’s been a carefully laid plan by Kody Nestor since acquiring the former Victorian trained gelding. The four-year-old, formerly trained by Robert Hickmott, has more ability than his record of two wins from 11 starts suggests. The first thing you notice when glancing over his form is his SP profile. The market hasn’t found him in his three runs for Nestor but they were all over trips short of his best from 1000m to 1200m. Two back he lumped 63.5kg into third behind Ceasefire, chasing from last, before he was tightened late last start at Wagga in the Town Plate Prelude. Draws perfectly and Nash Rawiller is booked.
Dangers: 3. Racketeering is a lightly-raced galloper that resumed from 42 weeks on the sidelines at Doomben, where he clearly needed the run, before running second at the Gold Coast on a Heavy 10 surface. Peaks now third up. Is likely to give away a start from the wide draw, however. 12. Charlton Park bounced back to her best on the back of an aggressive ride last start. Anticipate the same tactics in this given the lack of an obvious leader. 8. Spilia can get very one paced into a preparation but he’ll keep finding the line while 7. Don’tforgetmonica heads to town in fantastic form.
How to play it: Golden Gorge WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Golden Gorge last start at Wagga
|Race 4 - 1:35PM LIVING TURF BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
1. Luncies did more than enough at his first Australian start three weeks ago in a better grade of race than this. It was a BM88 in which Mr Dependable led all the way. He has since won again while the runner up Lina’s Hero has subsequently won himself too. Looking at the British import’s late splits using Punters Intelligence, the four-year-old grey clocked 11.66 for his last 200m, half a length outside of the quickest in the race which was produced by Lackeen. Two other points, there was support in betting and James McDonald rode. The stayer had won four from six prior to that. This isn’t a deep race and forecasting the improvement he could make second up out to 1800m, he might prove worth the gamble.
Dangers: 12. Yangtze Rapids got the maiden monkey off his back last start at Canterbury but he was entitled to win at the odds on quote and given the ease at which he led. The timing is right to try him over 1800m now. 11. Mr Gee ran a shocker first up but the market predicted it. Has been back to the trials since and the blinkers go on. He is much better than what he produced there. It’d take a leap of faith to back him but wouldn’t be surprised if he bounced back. 6. Sagacious also comes off an inglorious last start effort but an aggressive ride could see him find his best. He beat Harmony Rose last preparation.
How to play it: Luncies WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Luncies first up at Canterbury
|Race 5 - 2:10PM KILLAHY EQUINE HAWKESBURY CROWN (1300 METRES)|
Would be all but declaring 5. Athiri had this been 1200m. It’s the only little niggle. Not so much that she won’t get the trip as she was only nosed out by subsequent G1 Coolmore Classic winner Krone over 1300m the last time was saw her at the races, but being first up might leave her a touch vulnerable late. Otherwise, we are looking at a mare that has won four of her past six starts, with three of those by impressive margins and she is versatile enough to take full advantage of the lack of speed here. Expect her to sit second outside of 3. Irithea with a sprint home playing right into her hands. Loved the way she trialled recently at Hawkesbury too.
Dangers: 8. Wandabaa is banging down the door to win her eighth race. Handles all tracks but would need a downpour to promote her to top pick. Had her chance last start in the G2 Sapphire but the two mares that beat her Fasika and Entriviere are a peg above what she meets in this. Maps to follow Athiri before getting the last crack. 2. Sweet Deal found her form again last start in that same race. Perhaps she was flattered by where she was on the track but it was encouraging as she’d done little in her three runs prior. 12. Air To Air could settle much closer third up having drawn low and like the way she has found the line in two runs. 4. She Shao Fly interests at odds on the back of her form lines from last campaign.
How to play it: Athiri WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Athiri’s most recent trial at Hawkesbury
|Race 6 - 2:45PM HAWKESBURY XXXX GOLD RUSH (1100 METRES)|
This is a big ask of 1. Special Reward first up with 60kg over 1100m, a distance as short as he wants, but have mapped him to settle midfield and with plenty of speed up front, he sets up well. First up last preparation he was nailed on the line by Roheryn and Probabeel in the G3 Show County with 58kg. A repeat of that level of performance sees him in the finish again. The market will perhaps be our best guide as to how forward he is ahead of his return. There are so many different ways to go in this race so went looking for the horse that should get the right run. Came back to Special Reward. His class will take him a long way in this too.
Dangers: By all reports, 2. Snitz is back to his best. The six-year-old didn’t fire a shot last campaign in two runs. The query is where he gets to from the wide draw. His form suggests he is best when he rides the speed but he’d have to cross half a dozen other on pacers to get that scenario. 10. Inanup rarely runs a bad race yet the market will always let you on. Goes well fresh (7:3-1-0) and loves the 1100m trip (13:5-2-0). 8. Varda beat Masked Crusader last year! The knock on her is whether she is a wet tracker. 12. Black Magnum tends to race well fresh but will be giving away a big head start. The chances only just start there. Tough race.
How to play it: Special Reward WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Special Reward trialling at Newcastle
|Race 7 - 3:25PM BLACKTOWN WORKERS CLUB GROUP HAWKESBURY GUINEAS (1400 METRES)|
3. Ellsberg has the makings of a very handy horse. He was never in any danger of losing first up at Randwick in the Listed South Pacific Classic after Tim Clark rode the perfect race in front. He got a little mid race breather before accelerating clear turning for home. Clark has now ridden Ellsberg twice, for a 4.3L win and most recently a 3L win. If he runs up to either of those performances, he’ll win again, and just as comfortably. He did get control in both of those peaks. Does he get that here with 10. Elizabeel and 11. Calgary Queen drawn to his inside? Maybe not but it’s hard to ignore the fact that he’s currently the best horse in the race and his record on good tracks reads 4:3-0-1.
Dangers: If Ellsberg puts a foot wrong or the leaders happen to overdo it early, look out for 5. Rainbow Connection. This is an equally talented miler in the making. He jumped from a midweeker over 1100m into a Listed race over 1400m last start when third behind Ellsberg. Punters Intelligence reveals that his last 600m of 34.05s was a length quicker than the next best. He copped a bump in the run too. Follow him. 2. Aim didn’t appreciate the shifty Randwick track first up and showed last preparation how sharply he can improve onto firmer footing and out to 1400m. 6. Exoboom fired up in the middle stages first up and was rolled as the $1.60 favourite. Forgive him that.
How to play it: Ellsberg WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Ellsberg beating Rainbow Connection last start
|Race 8 - 4:05PM EVERGREEN TURF HAWKESBURY GOLD CUP (1600 METRES)|
7. Royal Celebration never got a crack at his rivals first up when ninth behind Starspangled Rodeo before travelling deep throughout last Saturday, running third to Rocha Clock. The five-year-old shouldn’t be left with any excuses in this, however. He draws to get the run of the race behind what should be a genuine tempo, carries 55kg and peaks third up on the quick turnaround. It’s generally after a couple of runs that he finds his best form. Third up last preparation he ran Outrageous to 0.2L when second in the G3 Festival Stakes. This certainly looks to be a target race for Royal Celebration and his trainer Ron Quinton. The horse to beat.
Dangers: 3. Purple Sector sets up really well but it’s hard to ignore what we’ve seen (or haven’t seen) from him first and second up. Where’s the horse that belted his rivals at Randwick last campaign? Hugh Bowman said he felt as “flat as a tack” last start. If he does happen to show here, look out. 2. Archedemus is building towards another win and his two runs back have been much better than they read on paper. The problem is he won’t get control with 1. Greysful Glamour and 9. Surreal Image both drawn inside of him. 6. Sikandrabad and 8. Looks Like Elvis are winning hopes too.
How to play it: Royal Celebration WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Royal Celebration running third last Saturday
|Race 9 - 4:45PM HAPPY 70TH EVELYN BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
8. Vitesse will make her own luck and like the booking of Nash Rawiller for this front-running mare. She is yet to win first up in six attempts but she has gone close on two occasions so that record is a touch misleading. There isn’t a lot to be read into her one barrier trial as she was given a very easy time late to run eighth of nine runners. Can’t see a stack of speed engaged so she’ll settle in the first three, if not lead herself, and give a sight. Last preparation she knocked up late first up having sat outside of a genuine tempo before improving sharply to win second up from in front. At near double figure odds in early betting she’s worth a ticket.
Dangers: 6. Grande Rumore has plenty of market respect on the back of her Australian debut, winning at Canterbury. She was chasing a long way from home yet overcame the tight track and 1200m to nab Willowheart. It’ll pay to follow her but she only gets an extra 100m and barrier 2 could be problematic if she’s allowed to drift back again. 14. What Could Be powered to the line at Hawkesbury last start over 1100m.The veteran sprinter is hit-and-miss, particularly lately, but he’s capable on his day as he proved a couple of preparations back at Randwick in a similar style of race.
How to play it: Vitesse EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
The last time we saw Vitesse at the races