By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a good track.
|Race 1 - 1:15PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
3. Chilliwack looked very sharp in his latest trial at Warwick Farm, comfortably clocking the fastest time of the three two-year-old heats. James McDonald hardly moved on the youngster. That was his second trial, with his first harder to get a line on given how quietly he was ridden. Did coast to the line well, however. It’s yet another Exceed And Excel for the Godolphin operation, and being out of Raspberries makes him a brother to Malahat. McDonald sticks for the colt’s debut and should be able to settle him just about wherever he wants in the small field. James Cummings was off the mark for the new two-year-old season last Saturday with Destination and this is another likely type from what we’ve seen to date.
Dangers: 1. Muntaseera has race experience on her side, slipping up from Melbourne for the Maher and Eustace stable. The filly carries a 2kg penalty for her Group Three second on debut down the Flemington straight. She missed the kick there (which she also did in one of her two jumpouts prior) so from the draw, expect her to settle last. 2. Britain next best for Greg Hickman, but did trial nine lengths slower than Chilliwack in his Warwick Farm hitout.
How to play it: How to play it: Chilliwack WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Chilliwack and Mystic Vein trialling at Warwick Farm – November 21
|Race 2 - 1:50PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
13. Designer Dance was beaten at Goulburn last start but still brings a very strong SP profile having jumped $1.80. The lightly-raced five-year-old couldn’t chase down the leader Tarazal but made a good dent into the margin, beating third comfortably. Her first up run at Wagga was forgivable when tightened between runners. There has been market support for her both starts so expect the same on Saturday. Go back to her first campaign and her first two race starts provide strong Highway Handicap form references. On debut she ran a closing second to Feel The Knight at Wagga before beating Assault’n’bathory by a space. The wide draw looks fine for her as she gets back in the field and will appreciate clear running as she rolls into the straight. Will be strong late.
Dangers: 2. Pauper is flying this time back for Natalie Jarvis, beating Soami at Nowra last start, with that horse recently bolting in at Gosford. That was on October 20. It’s a query as to why we haven’t seen the Ex Godolphin galloper sooner. Perhaps this has been a target race given it’s a Class 2. The knock on 5. Bullet Speed is the price. Has upside but why so short given what he produced at Doomben first up? 8. Peloso Lass and 12. Conspirator come out of the same Dubbo race and have claims. 1. Greenspan did little first up off a 30 week spell but improved sharply second last preparation off a similar break. One for multiples.
How to play it: Designer Dance EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Designer Dance going down at Goulburn last start
|Race 3 - 2:25PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
I’m sure 9. Princess Cordelia walked off the Gundagai track thinking she had won last start. Trainer Mitch Beer would still be shaking his head. Still not sure how she didn’t having watched the replay several times! Prior to that the four-year-old mare was a dominant winner at Wagga having settled midfield. The inside draw will give Tim Clark the chance to punch up and secure a similar run. Can be a touch tardy away so will want to jump cleanly or risk being in a very tricky spot. She’ll need the breaks at the right time to find clear running but she’s the horse to beat here with even luck. Deep into her campaign she is holding her form brilliantly and we know she’ll be strong at the end of 1200m.
Dangers: 5. Congregate is lightly-raced four-year-old with two wins from his four starts. Was left a sitting shot at Scone last start when four weeks between runs but boxed on to hold down third. Strikes this off a similar break out to 1200m. 4. Luff was slow out at Newcastle and held up at the top of the straight. Forget he ever ran. His win prior to that was strong. Drops back to 1200m. 8. Francisco Pizaro will find the drop back to 1200m against him too but liked how he closed behind subsequent Canterbury winner Heaven On Earth last start. Has trialled well behind Feel The Knight since then. Both of 10. Oh So Hot’s wins have been over 1400m but she’ll sprint well fresh.
How to play it: Princess Cordelia WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Princess Cordelia being pipped at Gundagai
|Race 4 - 3:00PM JOHN R. TURK SHOP ONLINE SAVE TIME HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
8. Alison Of Tuffy did a big job to finish as close as she did last start at Canterbury. The mare was squeezed out at the start, settling a long last and chasing a hot speed with 59.5kg on her back. She ran fourth beaten just 0.7L in a blanket finish with Punters Intelligence revealing that her last 400m (23.02s) was a length quicker than the next best in the race. Dorothy Of Oz was carved up in front finishing fifth and has since franked the form in beating Starla at the midweeks. Prior to that effort, the Peter Robl-trained four-year-old was a dominant winner at Kembla Grange clocking good time for the day over the 1200m trip. From the low draw, hopeful that there is a spot for her in the first couple which would see her hard to beat in an even race.
Dangers: 11. Inviniciano and 9. Brazilica come out of the same race as Alison Of Tuffy. Inviniciano would have been in the finish with any luck. She has returned in good order for Joe Pride and beat home 7. Vitesse as Gosford two back. Conversely, Brazilica had every possible chance, knocking up late. Her last 400m was 5.5L slower than Alison Of Tuffy. She was first up from a bleed and she’ll strip fitter but how much improvement is there? Also worried about what she produced second up last campaign. 5. Suave is unbeaten and well placed here to make it three on the bounce. If 1. Sheriff can land in the first two from the inside draw he could pinch this. He’s hard fit and has found a race he can potentially dictate. 4. He’s A Hotshot rates a mention.
How to play it: Alison Of Tuffy WIN ($13 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
This underrated mare to cause a @rosehillgarden upset at $13?
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) November 28, 2019
|Race 5 - 3:40PM RANVET HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
5. Mansa Musa is lightning early, which is his biggest asset. Sustained speed. That was on display first up when proving too slippery for his rivals in BM70 grade. This is the naturally progression for the four-year-old. He has drawn wide but with his toe, should still be able to carve across and take up the running. Despite blazing away early first up, the overall time was slow compared to the races won by Glenall and Dirty Work (a maiden), with the last 200m largely to blame for that. He can only come on from that fresh showing. Mansa Musa has won three of his six starts and his form may look patchy on paper but all three of his defeats were blamed on wet tracks, and he is two from two on dry. So often over the Rosehill 1100m we see speed horses just keep running.
Dangers: This sets up nicely for 13. Roman Typhoon, a sprinter that is always dangerous given the right circumstances. The low draw is significant as Brenton Avdulla will be able to smother him up, settle him and dash late. Just won’t want to miss the start by too far, which he can do. Like the pairing of Nash Rawiller with 6. Oriental Runner. 10. Kawakini will be flooding home late while 4. Invictus Salute is an honest sprinter but has probably found her level.
How to play it: Mansa Musa WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
"Has found a very winnable race to keep progressing through the grades."@BradJGray fancies a speedy sprinter as his best bet for @rosehillgardens on Saturday @tabcomau @GRyanRacing pic.twitter.com/TQGSlpLAsk
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) November 28, 2019
|Race 6 - 4:20PM ATC CUP (2000 METRES)|
2. Taikamochi maps to lead this field unopposed. Tim Clark, one of the best front-running riders in the country, takes the ride. Clark will need to be aggressive early in punching up from barrier 1 but once the lead is established, should get control. The six-year-old has had two runs back this campaign, the first at Hawkesbury in the Listed Ladies Day Cup over 1600m where he was collared in the last 50m, before staying at the mile in The Gong last Saturday. After taking a trail, he never really found his rhythm and couldn’t quicken when asked. He looked certain to drop out but was coming again on the line. Mister Sea Wolf did break the track record in what was a much deeper race than this. It’s a tricky race to assess but we know exactly where this horse will be in the run and he is already a Group Three winner over the Rosehill 2000m.
Dangers: 12. House Of Cartier relished getting back out in trip at Newcastle and looked good in putting her rivals away. This is harder but her staying form from her three-year-old season includes a fifth to The Chosen One in a Group Three and a third in the Group One SA Oaks behind Princess Jenni. The market rightly looks to have singled out 4. Alward as the pick of Chris Waller’s six runners, with Hugh Bowman engaged to ride. Has been racing well in Queensland. Stablemate 6. Black On Gold can jump out of the ground when right and he wants this trip now. 1. Grey Lion was disappointing at Flemington last start. Imagine he’ll be ridden a lot colder here and saved for one late run. 7. Morton’s Fork and 5. Emperor’s Way are always around the mark but don’t win often.
How to play it: Taikamochi WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Taikamochi in The Gong last week
|Race 7 - 5:00PM IRON JACK FESTIVAL STAKES (1500 METRES)|
While it’s not clear what will take up the running, there should be enough speed for 10. Bobbing to get his chance. Nobody missed his first up run in The Kosciuszko with Punters Intelligence revealing a slashing 32.58s last 600m, two lengths quicker than the next best in the race. Being a miler, it was no surprise that his last 200m was particularly dominant. Four weeks later he appeared at Newcastle over 1300m and raced like he wanted further. He still clocked the fastest last 600m (33.67s), however. He’ll strip fitter here with the two weeks between runs this time and steps out to 1500m. This is the six-year-old’s stiffest test to date, and he is one dimensional in getting back in his races but down on 53kg (dropping 7kg from last start) he’ll be hard to hold out.
Dangers: I’d expect 1. Invincible Gem, 3. Renewal and 11. Testashadow to be ridden aggressively from their wide draws while 12. Don’t Give A Damn will hold a forward spot from the low draw. Invincible Gem gave up meekly in The Hunter but she was wide the trip. Her last two runs at Rosehill have brought a Group Two win over Daysee Doom and a close second to Alizee. 3. Renewal has been okay in his last two but has raced like he wants this trip. Can bounce back. A couple to include at odds are 9. Live And Free, he always improves sharply second up and gets the blinkers on, and backmarker 7. Siren’s Fury.
How to play it: Bobbing WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Bobbing doing his best work late last start at Newcastle
|Race 8 - 5:40PM DRINKWISE STARLIGHT STAKES (1100 METRES)|
10. Albumin has won four from six over the Rosehill 1100m and five from nine on his home deck. On a firm track, this race is tailor made for the five-year-old. Would be a lot more confident from a low draw as barrier nine does pose a few questions as to where he lands in the run, but at the price it’s worth the gamble that his regular ride Jay Ford, who has been on board for Albumin’s latest four wins, can slot the grey in somewhere midfield. The last time we saw the sprinter he won here in BM88 grade. This is harder of course, being Listed level, but it’s up for grabs. First up last campaign he was a touch plain behind 1. Bon Amis but he raced below his best and the 59kg may have anchored him. Dropping to 53kg and on the back of a lovely trial win, he is right in this.
Dangers: Bon Amis was outstanding first up in The Hunter over 1300m, having missed his lead up run which was the Sydney Stakes. Big tick back to 1100m as he loves this circuit even more than Albumin (8:5-2-0)! The 59kg is the leveller. Imagine 2. Passage Of Time presses forward from the draw. Has had three trials ahead of this and should have won first up last time in. Looks big overs. 7. Handle The Truth has to be vulnerable back to 1100m from 1400m in the Goulburn Cup. No knock on his talent but have to be against as the early favourite. 3. Glenall needed every bit of the 1100m last start but maps beautifully in this. 6. Sandbar and 11. Baller next best.
How to play it: Albumin EACH WAY ($15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Albumin winning his Rosehill trial – November 14
|Race 9 - 6:15PM MICK CROOK MEMORIAL HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
12. Convinced has less convictions than any of his rivals with just six starts to his name. The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained three-year-old worked to the line strongly last start in the G3 Spring Stakes at Newcastle, doing his best work across the line. The drop back to 1500m from the mile isn’t ideal but expect him to settle a couple of pairs closer in a race with plenty of stamped backmarkers engaged. He was chopped out soon after the start at Newcastle. Tim Clark reunites with Convinced having guided the son of Not A Single Doubt to victory in a Class 1 at Hawkesbury two back, travelling wide the trip where riding with momentum won him the race. If Convinced can again flow into this race turning for home he’ll take stopping with 53kg on his back in a BM78.
Dangers: 5. Redouble was set to met Pinup Miss (scratched) 3.5kg better off for a 0.2L defeat last start Little query on the depth of that race, but she is flying. 8. Tunero ran much better than his odds suggested he would first up ($51) and sets up well for this second up from a good draw with J-Mac steering. 1. Reflectivity is never far away on his home deck, with fifth his worst finish in six starts at Rosehill. 4. Matowi, 6. Our Winnie, 7. Stryke Rock and 10. Orcein are all capable on their day.
How to play it: Convinced WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Convinced working home at Newcastle last start