By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Day Two of The Championships at Royal Randwick.
The rail is out 3m, the track is in the soft range and the first set to go at 11:25am.
|Race 1 - 11:25AM KINGS OF SYDNEY SPORT MILE (1600 METRES)|
8. Significance looked to lose concentration at Newcastle on debut, running his race in patches. Despite how new he was, the Frankel colt he wasn’t beaten far over the 1400m journey. What really put this John O’Shea-trained two-year-old on the radar though was his Warwick Farm trial since then, when the blinkers were applied. He cruised to a six length win with Brenton Avdulla in the saddle and could have led very comfortably had he not restrained him to take a trail. It was impressive. I’d expect Significance to be in the first four on settling from the middle draw, given how he jumped in that trial and Avdulla’s positive inclinations, and out to the mile at Randwick looks ideal. There was support for him as soon as markets opened on Wednesday firming from $11 into $6.
Dangers: 1. Amercement jumps from 1200m to the mile but not many of these here have had a conventional 1600m preparation. What she does have on her side is proven class. Last start she ran on into fourth behind Kiamichi in the Magic Night. Punters Intelligence reveals her last 600m of 35.53s was the fastest in the race, ahead of the Champagne Stakes bound Probabeel. She has always given the impression she’d appreciate getting out to 1400m and beyond. It might see her settle closer but she isn’t blessed with early toe so barrier 1 looks a touch tricky. Hard to pot Godolphin youngsters at the moment in anything! 2. Vinco won at Mornington over 1500m last start so has a great grounding for this. 9. Persan didn’t handle the wet track at Rosehill while like the way 11. Foxborough motored to the line at Hawkesbury behind Dresden Green.
How to play it: Significance WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Significance trialling at Warwick Farm – April 1
|Race 2 - 12:05PM THE AGENCY SOUTH PACIFIC CLASSIC (1400 METRES)|
11. Green Aeon has the makings of a very smart animal. The son of Snitzel is a natural. He bounces out of the gates, makes his own luck and the best part of his races is his strength through the line. In both of his wins to date, albeit in midweek company, he has run the fastest last 200m split (Punters Intel). That’s not commonplace for a front runner. Interestingly, he and 10. Fasika have raced on the same day in their starts, in different races. In the first of those over 1200m, Green Aeon ran two lengths faster overall time, and towelled up Agassi who was only a length off Ringerdingding last week. In the second start, Green Aeon tackled 1400m while Fasika stayed at 1200m. Green Aeon was again so strong through the line closing in 34.73s his last 600m compared to Fasika’s 35.53s.
Dangers: Terrified of the Queenslander 12. Millard Reaction. He is also undefeated in two outings and has won like a horse destined for much bigger and better things. As we know with Toby Edmonds, he doesn’t venture anywhere to make up the numbers and I’d expect to see much more of this three-year-old in future carnivals. He is still raw and working out the caper but is untapped. There was plenty to like about 4. Wild Planet’s first up run behind 5. Krone with the leaders attacking one another. The barrier looks a major hurdle though. 6. Final Award dropped back to 1400m to take out the Canberra Guineas last start in good style coming from last. He had plenty on those and will be much closer from the inside draw.
How to play it: Green Aeon WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) and QUINELLA 11,12
Green Aeon running away from his Warwick Farm rivals last start
|Race 3 - 12:40PM POLYTRACK PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400 METRES)|
4. Bobbing made up a lot of ground very quickly in his Wyong qualifier last start before peaking on his run late. Understandable given it was his first hit out in four months. Don’t think he’ll have any troubles turning the tables on 1. Turnberry but that’s not even half the battle. There is plenty of quality here but plenty of pace engaged, including speedster 5. Golden Tycoon punching up from the inside to hold the front and there’s half a dozen more likely candidates to drive forward including the race favourite 2. Archedemus. Bobbing has won four of his past six starts and in those two losses, he finished second. It’s a handy record for a horse with his get-back style. He’ll relish the big Randwick straight and the draw is perfect, allowing him to balance up and let rip down the middle without having to weave a passage. Happy to play him at the odds.
Dangers: Archedemus’ last start run suggested he could be looking for the mile, taking even longer than normal to find top gear. However, in his favour is the month between runs and a Warwick Farm trial to keep the engine ticking over. He was tardy away in that trial and won’t want to muck up the start here or risk finding himself buried on the fence. The five-year-old gave subsequent two time winner Star Of The Seas a galloping lesson two starts back. He builds and builds to the line so will only need clear running to be in the finish again. The track holds the key for 6. Safado. He didn’t go a yard in the wet last start but has trialled nicely since to suggest he’s still on track. Stablemate 3. Spring Charlie was slowly away at Rosehill last start but held his ground.
How to play it: Bobbing WIN ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Archedemus ($3.50 TAB)
Bobbing’s Wyong qualifying run behind Turnberry
|Race 4 - 1:15PM CAMERA HOUSE PERCY SYKES STAKES (1200 METRES)|
There is always the temptation to look for things that are not there in form, or speculate, so how do you deny 1. Kiamichi’s claims in this back against her own sex? The challenge she faces is 58kg and a drier track but she won the Golden Slipper and 150m out in last week’s Sires’ looked like she was going to pinch that race too. She was only a length away from taking the first two legs of the rare two-year-old triple crown. The filly is airborne. She must be thriving because there is nothing more to prove with her this campaign yet here she is with James Cummings quoting during the week that she has come out of last Saturday “like she has out of every street fight she’s been in.” Hugh Bowman rides her for the first time but can’t imagine much changes, roll straight to the front and don’t look back. The last time she backed up she won the Slipper. One tough filly.
Dangers: The market hasn’t been very forgiving with 7. Villami. The Foxwedge filly was confidently backed in the Magic Night to start $4.60 but didn’t fire a shot on the heavy 10 track. Kiamichi relished it and won at $21. We haven’t seen Villami since, outside of a trial, where she went nicely and on the strength of her debut win she’s not out of this. 4. Flit has plenty of scope about her and forget the margin between her and 5. Cheer Leader when the pair met in a Bendigo maiden as Flit had no luck at all. Cheer Leader bolted in at Moonee Valley last start and threw the race away at Flemington the start prior getting lost down the straight. Keep 11. Kahlo safe. She debuts for Team Hawkes and the stable don’t deep end horses unless they are top shelf. She was scratched from Wyong on Wednesday for this.
How to play it: Kiamichi WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Kiamichi’s brave effort in the Sires’ last week
|Race 5 - 1:50PM ARROWFIELD 3YO SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
10. Trope has spotted the leaders seemingly impossible starts at his two outings to date but launched to the line on both occasions. On debut, he did enough to win but last start when jumping from maiden company to a Listed race he couldn’t reel in 13. Prophet’s Thumb.The Randwick track was playing lightning quick that day but Punters Intelligence reveals a last 600m of 32.15s. That was a length and half quicker than anything else in the race. The son of More Than Ready doesn’t (yet!) have the Group One form lines to his name like many of his rivals here, but I’ve got little doubt that his time will come. He is one of the most exciting horses coming through the ranks in Sydney at the moment and this might the last time in a while we get a price about him. The race sets up well for him speed wise.
Dangers: 2. Encryption drops back to his own age after three excellent efforts in Group Ones – the Oakleigh Plate, Newmarket and Galaxy – against older horses. It’s a lovely profile for this race but the knock is that he might be a tease, running on at the end of anything you throw him in without winning. He has won two of his 16 starts. 7. Classique Legend was luckless covering ground at Rosehill last start. He has a stack of talent and can bounce back, just not sure how this race sets up for him given the speed engaged. 8. Baller was brave in the Galaxy having eye balled Nature Strip. 11. Avantage has an incredible record but she was flattered last start at Rosehill when she completely controlled the race from in front. The jury is out on how well 1. Zousain and 3. Lean Mean Machine are going.
How to play it: Trope EACH WAY ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Trope rattling home from last at Randwick
|Race 6 - 2:25PM HEINEKEN 3 AUSTRALIAN OAKS (2400 METRES)|
Tried to poke holes in 1. Verry Elleegant but came up empty handed. She has won with authority the Phar Lap Stakes and Vinery Stud Stakes and she is a deserved short price favourite here. Her price is certainly no spoil. Can only get back out from $1.60. She settled beautifully in the ear muffs last time out so we can rule that out as a knock. She is back on top of the ground and although we know she loves the slop, and her slight build is tailor made for slipping through the wet, her runs on firmer tracks aren’t as bad as her record suggests. She took ground off Amphitrite and ran past Fundamentalist in the Vanity at Flemington back in February. Then there is the staying question. In the VRC Oaks, despite finishing seventh, she had the fastest closing split in the race. She has a turn of foot none of these can match.
Dangers: 3. Frankely Awesome skipped last week’s Derby in favour of the Oaks after the daughter of Frankel ran second to Verry Elleegant in the Vinery. Reckon I’ve watched the end of the Vinery 20 times and it’s the last 50m that doesn’t give me the confidence she can turn the tables. Very Elleegant was holding her and even going away slightly again right on the line. Frankely Awesome shapes to relish this trip however and imagine Hugh Bowman will be very keen to use the soft draw to settle in front of Verry Elleegant this time. 2. Aristia won the VRC Oaks and has been building into this perfectly. Has to be in the money somewhere again. 6. Aliferous was so strong across the line winning the Adrian Knox. 7. Scarlet Dream, 9. Autumn and 10. Rocknavar are place hopes.
How to play it: Verry Elleegant WIN ($1.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Verry Elleegant taking out the Vinery
|Race 7 - 3:05PM LONGINES QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Farewell 7. Winx . Preparation after preparation, carnival after carnival her invincibility is so terrifying to rival trainers that they map out preparations to dodge her. That’s not a slight on Winx but rather a feather in her cap. There is no lack of depth in this field however with two of her most familiar sparring partners 1. Happy Clapper and 2. Hartnell back for one more tilt at the champ. Any hopes of them beating her have long been dashed but what a fitting way for the mighty mare to go out. Onto the actual race, the wide draw will see Hugh Bowman flop her out the back, creep into the race turning for home and quicken in the manner we’ve been blessed to witness for four years now. All that’s left for us to do is cheer her home one last time.
WINX OUT: Outside of Winx, there is only one horse that has been targeted specifically at this race, 4. He’s Eminent. There was a big question mark over this international ahead of the Ranvet and the market reflected that with his odds drifting from $11 out to $19 late. The five-year-old was outstanding though, making Avilius chase him down. He can only improve off that given it was his first run in seven months. He will be rolling along out in front controlling the speed and the firmer track will be much more familiar, with that Ranvet run his first ever on a rain affected deck. 3. Harlem and 6. Mask Of Time will be thereabouts with him but the lead looks his if James McDonald wants it, and would be surprised if he didn’t. Happy Clapper and Hartnell have faced Winx over 2000m on seven occasions between them and the closest either of them has finished is 4.1L away.
How to play it: He’s Eminent WINX OUT ($3.70 TAB)
He’s Eminent was first up in the Ranvet
|Race 8 - 3:50PM SCHWEPPES SYDNEY CUP (3200 METRES)|
11. Midterm would give Lloyd Williams his fifth Sydney Cup so he knows a thing or two about the right profile of horse to target the staying feature with. The six-year-old was the beneficiary of a lovely ride from Jamie Kah in the Manion Cup last start rolling into the turn with momentum putting his rivals under pressure easier than they would have liked. The blinkers going on certainly did the trick. Punters Intelligence reveals that his last 200m split of 13.03s ranked the fourth quickest in the race, despite taking off at the 1000m from home, and less than a length off the quickest, which was 5. Big Duke. That horse has since franked the form running second to Avilius in the Tancred while the third horse 16. Shraaoh ties the form into last Saturday’s Chairman’s. Knowing the stable, the Manion Cup was just a bonus for Midterm on the way through to this race. Kah stays on and the horse will settle somewhere in the first four.
Dangers: Thought Kiwi 15. Rondinella was excellent chasing home Avilius in the Tancred. The four-year-old mare was exposed a long way from home but was still there at the finish. Big Duke got her back in the run and was entitled to beat her home by a much more comfortable margin, but she was coming back on the line. Drawn the inside, Sam Clipperton will punch up to be in the first dozen. 10. Dubhe commands so much respect on the back of trainer Charlie Appleby alone but the market has cuddled him so tightly it’s hard to justify charging in at the price. And I emphasise, at the price. If we had seen him in a lead up, fair enough but sight unseen, you are trusting he has settled in. There is no denying his claims coming off a four length two mile win in Dubai beating Red Galileo who had previously run third to stablemate Ispolini, who subsequently ran second to Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter in the Dubai World Cup. The form line ties into Prince Of Arran too.
How to play it: Midterm EACH WAY ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) and BOX QUINELLA 11,15,10
Midterm winning the Manion Cup last start
|Race 9 - 4:30PM COOLMORE LEGACY STAKES (1600 METRES)|
2. Prompt Response is never far away and on the strength of her two runs back this time in, she has to be in the finish again here. First up she ran third to Trapeze Artist and Shoals in the G1 Canterbury Stakes with Pierata back in fifth and Brutal a luckless sixth. She then tackled Winx in the G1 George Ryder where she was only beaten by the champion mare and the subsequent Doncaster quinella Brutal and Dreamforce. She has been very aggressively placed and now third up back against her own sex on firmer footing, she gets her chance. Blake Shinn has always had a lot of belief in this mare and should have her smoking the pipe in behind the leaders having drawn perfectly in barrier 6. The five-year-old ran second to 1. Alizee in this race last year, when trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, and she looks to be going just as well this autumn.
Dangers: I’m not ready to give up the ghost with 14. Dyslexic. Go back to her first up effort and she was less than a length away from 4. Dixie Blossoms. The weight for age conditions suit Dixie, and she ran a bottler in the Doncaster last week after winning the Coolmore, but the discrepancy in the market obliges me to include Dyslexic in everything. For a mare that isn’t comfortable in the wet, her two runs since then have had plenty of merit. Her sharp turn of foot could be the difference in what’s likely to be a blanket finish. The last two winners of this race, Alizee and Foxplay, dropped back from the Vinery Stud Stakes so 18. Nakeeta Jane and 19. Seabrook fit that bill. On Alizee, in her latest two runs, both over the mile, she has moved into the race but hasn’t attacked the line. Starting to think she’s more dynamic over 1200-1400m these days. Blinkers first time for 7. Unforgotten might spark her up again.
How to play it: Prompt Response EACH WAY ($13 TAB Fixed Odds)
Prompt Response last ran fourth to Winx in the George Ryder
|Race 10 - 5:10PM TAB SAPPHIRE STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Looking for something to sweep down the middle of the track come the last race and 11. Savatiano is a strong candidate. There is plenty of speed here, as you’d expect with a capacity line up of mares over 1200m. Forget this Godolphin four-year-old ever ran in the G1 Coolmore last start. She was never on the track from the wide draw and if she wasn’t already suspect enough beyond 1400m, the heavy track made sure of it. Has been freshened since then, so the month between runs should see her sharp enough back to the sprint trip. Earlier in her career she dropped back from 1300m to 1100m in the space of 10 days and won easily. Her tickover trial in between was typically eye catching. Boasts a record of five wins and nine placings from 19 starts and that’s despite her share of bad luck over the course of her career. Looks to have been lost in a very open betting market.
Dangers: 6. Winter Bride hasn’t been seen since the Wenona Girl but she appears to race best kept fresh. There was so much to like about that first up win. That’s now nine wins from 18 starts. I’d imagine Tommy Berry will punch up to be as close as possible from barrier 1, stalking the speed. 5. Spright had her chance to run down Winter Bride there but has since run second to Sunlight in the G1 William Reid and there’s a case that she’d have won with clear running. Prefer if she had drawn out. 3. I Am Excited won the Gilgai third up last campaign beating Eduardo and ran well in the Galaxy last start. This race sets up well for her from the cosy draw. Can never underestimate 1. Invincibella. Wasn’t asked to do much in her Warwick Farm trial but we know her quality.
How to play it: Savatiano EACH WAY ($16 TAB Fixed Odds) and BOX TRIFECTA 1,3,5,6,11
The last time Savatiano ran over 1200m at Randwick