Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The first race set to jump at 11.30am local time. The rail is out 3m the entire while the track will race in the Good range.
|Race 1 - 11:30AM ABERCORN HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
In an ideal world Press Box would be tackling 1400m and it’s worth noting that she was scratched from Wednesday over that trip, presumably due to the wide barrier. The full sister to Press Statement chased hard on debut at Canterbury but couldn’t reel in her stablemate. She stays at 1200m but does swap Canterbury for the bigger Rosehill straight. She strikes me as the type that will make big leaps from start to start and doesn’t have to improve a great deal off that debut to get the job done here. James McDonald gets another plum ride for Chris Waller and should have her in the first couple from barrier 2.
Danger: Stunts went too slowly in front at Hawkesbury which allowed Graff to dash past him at the finish. The blinkers are a big addition to this colt and like the drop back from 1300m to 1200m. He has to be in the finish somewhere and will be in front of Press Box in the run. River Bird peaked on her run noticeably first up (Punters Intel). Suspect she’ll need one more though. Ronstar only had one trial but liked what we saw from the son of Zoustar there. Monitor market moves.
How to play it: Press Box WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
Press Box running second at Canterbury on debut
|Race 2 - 12:05PM POITREL HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Gaulois resumed a gelding at Hawkesbury and despite looking disappointing on paper when fifth as the easing favourite in the race, he was anything but. He went right back from the tricky draw before making up late ground. That’ll open the pipes ahead of his second up assignment and the form out of the race isn’t bad either with Siren’s Fury since winning again in taking out Scone’s Dark Jewel. Think it was significant that he was a big late drifter there too. Tactics were a touch negative with the market suggesting he wasn’t ready first up to be ridden aggressively. Gaulois should be able to stalk the speed from the middle draw with Rachel King in the saddle, who has a deadly strikerate riding for Godolphin from a handful of rides.
Danger: To me, Seaway looks vulnerable back in trip from 1550m to 1400m. He maps to be last too. Looks a good risk at the early $3 price. Maid Marilyn worked hard early at Canterbury first up but wasn’t beaten far at the finish. Will need to find a few lengths off that but reckon she can give a sight with 54kg on her back and the run under her belt. It’s the right grade of race for both Smartedge and Lisdoonvarna to run well again.
How to play it: Gaulois WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds)
Gaulois running fifth at Hawkesbury
|Race 3 - 12:40PM MALCOLM JOHNSTON HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
There are two standouts here in Epidemic and Charlayne. Going with Epidemic because we know she is in terrific form. She trialled particularly well before launching her campaign with a narrow win at Rosehill. Punters Intel reveals she slipped home her last 600m in 33.43s. She is a full sister to Impending so certainly has the pedigree behind her. The filly paraded like she was ready to go first up so don’t expect her to go right ahead from that second up but with a touch of natural improvement, she'll be at her top now. She is extremely versatile having won from the front and the back. Should get her chance to do it from the middle here with good speed engaged.
Danger: Charlayne is a classy filly as evidenced by her win over Problem Solver and Sheikha at her second race start back in February. We have seen her once since when ninth in the G3 PJ Bell Stakes. It was a much deeper race than this, having been won by Houtzen, but wanted to see a touch more from her there. Maybe I’m being too harsh. Has trialled well since. Would be surprised if the winner doesn’t come from those two but throw Easy Eddie into multiples.
How to play it: Epidemic WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Epidemic winning at Rosehill first up
|Race 4 - 1:15PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Bocelli has the scope to go right on with the job. The Japanese-bred four-year-old has already won two of his three outings, the latest being over 1200m at Goulburn. Trainer Tash Burleigh has pointed out that he’ll need to behave himself away from home in town but all being equal, he should be fighting out the finish. He was a dominant winner last start when heavily backed, never looking like losing. His miss to date was a midfield effort in the Country Championships qualifier behind Kopi Luwak when a rank outsider over 1400m. We can forgive him that.
Danger: You can’t do any more than win your first two starts and that’s exactly what Coup De Main has done to date. Tackles Highway company for Danny Williams after winning at Orange and Wagga. He has led on both occasions and would expect him to do the same here from the draw and with Nick Heywood in the saddle again, having ridden him in both wins. There is no telling where his ceiling is. Dia De Reyes got out to 2000m last campaign but he can sprint well fresh here (as long as he jumps!) and already has a Highway win to his name.
How to play it: Bocelli WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Bocelli winning at Goulburn last time out
|Race 5 - 1:55PM EDWARD DEAS THOMSON HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Richard Freedman was considering sending Roman Son north for the Doomben Cup at one stage. Instead he opts for the softer option of a BM85. His form this preparation has been brilliant and he is only fourth up here so only now would you expect him to be at his peak. Roman Son wanted to hang out in the straight at Hawkesbury last start but still had plenty on his rivals, spearing away to win by over two lengths. He has a turn of foot none of these can match. At least those we’ve seen plenty of, anyways.
Danger: The two unknowns loom as the only dangers to Roman Son. Chris Waller’s imports Solo Mission and Araaja. Both ran particularly well at their first Australian outing and can only be improved. Solo Mission ducked up the fence to win well at Rosehill over 1500m (11.76s last 200m – Punters Intel) despite all of his overseas form being over staying trips while Araaja boxed on well behind Goathland at Randwick over 1800m.
How to play it: Roman Son WIN ($1.95 TAB Fixed Odds)
Roman Son winning again at Hawkesbury
|Race 6 - 2:35PM JOHN SIZE HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Finding it hard to tumble into either Albumin or the Victorian Manolo Blahniq at the prices. Have settled on Ever So Natural at double figure odds. It’s no secret that the Tracey Bartley stable is airborne at the moment and there is plenty to like about the way this six-year-old is going about his business this time back. He won at the Kenso meeting first up before running second to Revenire at Warwick Farm last start. That form should stack up in this race. He draws to get the right run, settling in the first four. The trick to his good form could be down to keeping him over the shorter trips. Over 1100m his form reads 9:2-2-3.
Danger: Manolo Blahniq is hard to get a line on. His three-year-old form was very good and was at one time being spruiked as a genuine Guineas horse. That didn’t eventuate but he still ran six of eight in the 2016 Coolmore behind Flying Artie and Astern. It’s been a rocky road since with the now four-year-old taking an eternity to win his second race. He’ll need the breaks giving his get-back style. Albumin has spent most of his career racing in stakes races. He is another that doesn’t win out of turn but fits into this race well enough. Oriental Runner romped through the grades last preparation.
How to play it: Ever So Natural EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Ever So Natural’s second at Warwick Farm last start
|Race 7 - 3:15PM AUSTRALIAN HALL OF FAME DAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Passage Of Time might still be half a run short of peak fitness but happy to take the gamble at the odds, that he can still win this. The four-year-old is on the seven day backup having ran an admirable fourth at Scone last week in Listed company finishing only behind Osborne Bulls, Red Excitement and Invincible Gem. He drops back to BM95 grade, steps out to the 1500m and third up last time in he won well. The wide draw poses a few problems with Special Missile and King Darci unlikely to hand up but with Hunter Jack on his outside, Blaike McDougall might have the chance to slot in behind the leaders.
Danger: Special Missile has been racing well all preparation without winning. He appears to do his best work when he can dictate from the front. He’ll have some company here but in his favour is the step out to 1500m having stayed at 1400m/1350m his last four runs. His Osborne Bulls form reads well for this. Don’t let Farolitos slip under your guard as far as multiples go. Needed the run at the Sunny Coast first up off an 18 month layoff. Liked his trial since then. Want to bet around Up ‘N’ Rolling as favourite. That race at Hawkesbury lacks depth.
How to play it: Passage Of Time WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Special Missile ($3.90)
Passage Of Time in the Luskin Star last week
|Race 8 - 3:55PM CHRIS WALLER HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Convinced that the only thing that can beat I Am Serious here is the barrier. Had she drawn a gate, I’d be attacking her with plenty of confidence. Her first up run was certainly nothing to write home about but she ran similarly first up over 1200m last campaign before bouncing off that to run a luckless third over 1400m and then winning two on the trot. Her work across the line first up was good enough. It’s worth noting that in that luckless third she finished behind Princess Posh, who is hard in the market here too, but clearly should have beaten that runner. She then gave her a galloping lesson third up. This is a very winnable race for the Chris Waller-trained mare. Just banking on James McDonald to find a drag into the race at the right time.
Danger: Medaille finished alongside I Am Serious first up and you can expect similar improvement from her second up and out to 1400m. The Godolphin mare has won her last two second up outings, spring boarding off passable first up efforts. Draws to get her chance to stalk the speed which is an ideal scenario for her. Our Belisa kicks over 1400m which gives her a hope of figuring first up. She won three straight last time in before running second to Dreamforce and then running midfield in the Bell Of The Turf behind Pecans and Sedanzer.
How to play it: I Am Serious WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Rest assured – I Am Serious ran like this first up last time in too!
|Race 9 - 4:35PM COLIN HAYES HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Noire has always been a good mare but she went to a new level last time in, winning three on the trot before it took Lanciato to ruin the picket fence. She was expected to win there too, starting an odds on favourite. That form looks outstanding now with Lanciato going on to win the Listed Carrington, G3 Newcastle Newmarket and run seventh in the Doncaster. The start prior to that Noire took the scalp of Pecans who has since won two Group Three races. Noire has trialled nicely on two occasions, - the latest of those being only on Tuesday - draws to get the right run and looks destined for better things than benchmark racing. The timing of her return to me suggests the stable are eyeing off the Tatts Tiara via the Stradbroke which she is nominated for. Too classy for these.
Danger: Handfast and Dissolute both ran well behind Anatola at Randwick the last time we saw them. Anatola broke the track record in that race and had since won well in Queensland. That form will stack up here. Handfast looks particularly big odds given he was first up there and ran along at a good clip from the front. With Sweet Serendipity scratched, imagine he zips across from the wide gate to take up the running here again. He'll give cheek. Bon Amis looks to have found his level now.
How to play it: Noire WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds)
Noire beating Pecans last preparation