By Neil Evans
Track improving to Soft 7/Heavy 8 and rail out 3m from 1400m to winning post for Showcase meeting so likely just off the speed before trending wider
|Race 1 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):|
We open over the sprint course, and under-rated Goulburn mare 4. Denesc can finally win a second time at her 26th start, although placed a further 13 times. Has finished hard from well back in two runs off a long break in similar conditions, and should be right at her peak.
Dangers: Local 4YO 3. Pushkar was very well backed before sailing home to claim his maiden here on a bog track. Again gets a pivotal 3kg claim, although some concern dropping back in trip third-up; while 5YO mare 5. Shanaya can improve sharply second-up with a strong rider going on.
How to play it: Denesc to win. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 2 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):|
Out to the mile for an open battle, with plenty of chances. Expect progressive Canberra 4YO 5. Loafing from the in-form Keith Dryden yard to take the next step after surging home to win his maiden third-up at Moruya in similar ground. Carries the same weight here, and looks headed for better races.
Dangers: Liked the way Tumut 4YO mudlark 1. Cape Cluster knuckled down late to run down the leader here and claim his maiden over the same trip. Hard fit deep into the prep, and despite rising to 59kg, still treated okay under the set weight conditions. Improving Corowa 5YO 2. Cloud Nine relished the wet track second-up at Narrandera careering away to win his maiden. Taking on some better ones here, but can progress now he found the winner's stall. Goulburn mare 9. Zarafah got home okay behind a smart one resuming at home, and this looks the right second-up journey.
How to play it: Loafing to win and box trifecta 1,2,5,9. Odds and Evens: Odds
Loafing wins at Moruya on August 16
|Race 3 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):|
Tricky race at set weights. Canberra colt 5. Toretto trained by Matt Dale caught the eye late on debut at Moruya in a handy maiden, and while he'll be forced to go well back from a wide gate, will appreciate the much longer straight.
Dangers: Another Canberra visitor 1. Astrobleme also hit the line late in that same Moruya maiden, and bred to handle these conditions; while stablemate filly 6. Dancin' Til Dawn resumes with no public trial, but has been working well and draws the inside. Watch the betting on two first starters Albury filly 11. Meladia (Proisir x Melody by Stravinsky) whose sire won a Group 3 and beaten narrowly in a Group 1; while well-named filly 13. Taylor Be Swift (Your Song x Hot Commodity by Choisir) has trialled well in heavy ground.
How to play it: Toretto each way. Odds and Evens: Odds
|Race 4 BM 66 HCP (1600m):|
Wide open battle, and tempo will have a big say. Albury 6YO 6. Funky Farm fought back doggedly to win at home on a heavy 10 last start, and likely to control the speed from the inside draw.
Dangers: Expect big improvement from Warwick Farm mare 3. First Lady dropping significantly in grade third-up. Goulburn 5YO 4. Ritmico also finds a more suitable task second-up after just plain resuming in a BM 65 at Canberra; while Leeton 5YO 5. Crimson Hoffa won a weaker race two runs back before holding his position okay under a bigger weight at Narrandera.
How to play it: Funky Farm to win and trifecta 3,6/3,4,5,6/3,4,5,6. Odds and Evens: Split.
|Race 5 IAN REID SPRINT (1200m):|
Feature race of the day stacks up nicely for consistent Canberra mare 6. Terra Reign again from the Dale yard who finished off well under more weight in consecutive BM 70 races before working home okay in a BM 83 at Moruya. Senior rider back on, and she looks ready to win again fourth-up. Was scratched from the Kensington meeting on Wed.
Dangers: Improving Albury 5YO 2. Logan River looks the clear threat after charging home to win a good quality sprint here first-up; while 5YO stablemate 8. Enzed Beer has been right on the heels of the place-getters in his last two, and the wetter the better.
How to play it: Terra Reign to win. Odds and Evens: Evens a special
Terra Reign runs third at Moruya on August 4
|Race 6 CLASS 3 HCP (1200m):|
Canberra 5YO 7. Royal Monarch trained by John Rolfe charged late to win in heavy ground at Goulburn second-up before again hitting the line nicely in a CL2. This is tougher, but should get enough pace on up front to settle back and drive into the finish, and appears well over the odds.
Dangers: Progressive Albury 5YO and another one from the Mitch Beer stable, 1. Jawwaal bounced to the front at home last start and gave nothing else a look-in careering away to win by more than 11 lengths. Doubt will get the same favours again up in weight from a wider barrier, but couldn't be fitter and revels in rain-affected going. The obvious danger! Canberra mare 4. Flora Bel is also over the odds despite flopping badly in the heavy at home last start. Down in weight, leading country rider gets back on, and track should be closer to her preferred soft rating.
How to play it: Royal Monarch each way and exacta 1,7/1,4,7. Odds and Evens: Odds
|Race 7 BM 58 HCP (1000m):|
Back in grade and distance for the sprinters, and again there are a stack of chances. Canberra 6YO 7. Mad As Zariz from the Nisbet and Weston stable can be hard to catch, but returned off a lengthy break with a dominant front-running win in similar ground at Gundagai. This is tougher, but loves it wet and no reason he can't put two together at big odds.
Dangers: Former Qld 6YO 8. Mr Kylin has relished his new home at Goulburn, winning both starts this prep after stalking the speed. Bit more depth here and rises 4kg in weight. Capable Albury 5YO 1. Galaxy Force dropped out resuming at Canberra after a year off the scene, but this is weaker, and with an edge in class and rise in fitness, he can be in the finish with the jockey claiming 3kg. Won his only start at this track in heavy ground. Watch for any market move with local 7YO 2. Landmine who hasn't race since last spring, but bolted in a recent trial in heavy ground; while include another Canberra visitor 3. El Nieto in wider exotics.
How to play it: Mad As Zariz each way and trifecta 1,7,8/1,2,3,7,8/1,2,3,7,8. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 8 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):|
We finish with the maidens in another big field. Canberra 5YO 7. Promesa is having his first run in nearly 13 months, but reportedly done plenty of work and has been fitted with two trials.
Dangers: Liked the second-up run from Goulburn 5YO 3. Debit Credit at Gundagai, and a stronger rider has been booked.
How to play it: Promesa to win. Odds and Evens: Odds