By Neil Evans
Track Good 4 and rail true for Cup Day. Likely to play on-speed early before gradual trend towards the middle
|Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):|
Open and tricky maiden to start. Wyong 3YO filly 6. Camellia Legend is much better suited back to the 1000m third-up on firmer ground, and is down in class. Last 100m a little query, but stable has had a flying start to the new season.
Dangers: The first-up run for nearly nine months from 5YO Newcastle mare 4. Got The Giggles was encouraging, and this looks a bit easier. Former Qld 4YO mare 5. Stormiaire had two solid short-course runs over the border after a long lay-off, and now based at Taree. Will give a sight, with in-form country hoop booked to ride. Big market watch on debutant 3YO Gosford filly 7. Fonce Factor (The Factor x Vanetta by Danehill Dancer) who trialled strong through the line in heavy ground for shrewd trainer/rider combination, and was scratched from a later race, but kicks off with a tough draw. Newcastle 4YO mare 3. Leave Me Some (Time Thief x Little Miss Clang by Clang) makes her debut off two quiet trials, but draws well, and the sire-line normally comes to hand quickly, although bred for longer on the dam's side. Keep 3YO Newcastle filly and first starter 12. Positive Factor (The Factor x Stay Positive by Snitzel) safe, by the same speed sire as Fonce Factor.
How to play it: Camellia Legend each way and first four 4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/3,4,5,6,7,12/3,4,5,6,7,12. Odds and Evens (First 2): Split.
|Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):|
Gosford 4YO mare 3. Gottabe Red will improve off her first-up run at Cessnock with the blinkers going on, and just needs and even share of luck from the wide draw.
Dangers: Newcastle 3YO filly 7. Chilli Chilli (Testa Rossa x Red Chilli Peppers by Hussonet) makes her debut in blinkers off a solid on-speed trial when a little green in the straight, and gets a 1.5kg claim. Rival 3YO Newcastle filly 11. Divisadero returns off a six month spell without the blinkers after winning a trial when pushed out from off the speed, and draws the fence.
How to play it: Gottabe Red to win. Odds and Evens: Odds.
|Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):|
Improving 4YO Scone mare 6. Dreaming Of Gold was hooked back to near last on debut at Tamworth before unleashing a powerful closing burst to just miss. This looks a shade easier, and extra trip ideal.
Dangers: Loved the most recent trial of 3YO Wyong gelding and first starter 10. Buckin' Rippa (Delago Deluxe x Lucky Beauty by Peintre Celebre) who cruised home from off the speed under a hold, and draws the fence for his debut. One of the more experienced runners in the field, 4YO Newcastle gelding 2. Serbelloni is hard fit and will be hard to run past from the good draw. Has held on well leading in his last two behind two above average sprinters, and gets his chance to break through at 12th start. Debutant and well bred 3YO Newcastle gelding 9. Bravio (All Too Hard x Senorita de Lago by Encosta de Lago) has trialled okay and draws to get a nice trail. Look for an improved second prep from 4YO Newcastle mare 5. Armina who didn't do much earlier in the year, but looked stronger in a recent trial win; while 4YO Taree mare 8. Sparkling Rose has been around the money this prep in some handy maiden fields, but draws wide.
How to play it: Dreaming Of Gold to win and box trifecta 2,6,9,10. Odds and Evens: Evens.
|Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1400m):|
Looks a race in two under a compressed weight scale. Promising 3YO Newcastle gelding 1. Salsa Dreaming maps nicely, and can break through after four runs back. Has powered home from midfield as a short-priced favourite to miss narrowly in his last two, and punters can stretch their patience just a little longer.
Dangers: Wyong 3YO filly 2. Trajection was a little disappointing second-up after a big fresh run at Taree, but draws to get a cosy position right behind the speed, with the winkers going on. Newcastle 4YO gelding 12. Trematon has been finishing off his races okay, and draws to get a lovely run back in the field with plenty of cover, and saved for one last crack; while 5YO Pt Macquarie mare 7. Islamax returned off an ordinary staying campaign last spring and a long break to fly home from the back first-up at home, and while extra trip is an obvious plus, will be giving nearly all the field a decent start.
How to play it: Salsa Dreaming to win and quinella 1 and 2. Odds and Evens: Split.
Salsa Dreaming runs second at Tamworth on August 30
|Race 5 CL1 HCP (1400m):|
Again a good race, with plenty of chances. Emerging 3YO Newcastle filly 12. Enchanted Heart may have only beaten a modest Maiden field at Moree second start, but the way he accelerated from off the speed and put them to the sword in the straight suggests a youngster with plenty more to find, and leading country rider hops back aboard from a good trailing draw.
Dangers: While progressive 3YO Wyong gelding 5. Contalmaison jumps up 400m from his first-up win at Taree, the form out of that race is stronger than most, and he draws to get a nice run on the speed. Newcastle 4YO mare 6. Miss Eporetto has plenty of ability, but been a little disappointing in two runs since a nice first-up effort at Muswellbrook. Fitter now, and will be ridden quiet and allowed to charge into the finish. Expect improvement second-up from 4YO Newcastle gelding 3. Into The Oblivion who did his best work late in a BM 58 at Scone, and draws to park midfield on the fence. Pt Macquarie 3YO gelding 11. Lord Avatar charged home to win his maiden two runs back before a fair closing effort in a good Class 1 at Taree, and is looking now for this distance. Muswellbrook 4YO mare 13. Elleofarock took a while to break through in a weaker race at Cessnock when heavily backed, but hard fit and drops in weight.
How to play it: Enchanted Heart to win and trifecta/first four 5,12/3,5,6,11,12. Odds and Evens: Split.
|Race 6 TUNCURRY 1500 (1500m):|
Newcastle 4YO gelding 2. Myboycolly was no match for the flying Fashion Icon this trip and grade, but at his peak now, and can park with a nice trail just off the speed.
Dangers: Local 6YO gelding 9. Up The Stairs got home well second-up to finish right on the heels of Storm Attack in that race at Taree, and has been kept on the fresh side for a galloper that was competitive over longer trips in Victoria last spring. Scone 8YO gelding 1. Dubali normally improves into his second-up run, and while he looks well placed back in this grade, the handicapper hasn't missed him with 62.5kg. Wyong 5YO gelding 4. Stunned was specked at a big price when sweeping home to win a Class 1 at Gosford before disappointing at Wyong in tougher company. This suits better, but another who looks almost weighted out of it. Kempsey 6YO gelding 5. I've Got This hit a real peak storming home to win a BM 66 at Tamworth, and sharp rise in weight has been off-set with a 3kg claimer aboard.
How to play it: Myboycolly to win and quinella 2 & 9. Odds and Evens: Split.
|Race 7 CL1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2100m):|
Pt Macquarie 5YO mare 6. Veganza is banging on the door for a second career win after charging home late in a string of races this prep. Even better drawn here, and looking for the extra journey.
Dangers: Muswellbrook 6YO gelding 2. Kaldero mixes his runs, but carted this weight to win his maiden three runs back before battling on okay from the front behind the smarter Agosto last start. Wyong 4YO mare 12. Oakfield Poet has yet to run a place in six starts, but has been taking on much deeper provincial maiden company, and drops significantly in weight; while 6YO Coffs Harbour gelding 8. Say It Ain't So has a poor strike rate, but last two runs have been among the best of his career closing strongly from well back, and he draws to be ridden cold and saved for one final rally.
How to play it: Veganza to win. Odds and Evens: Evens.
Veganza runs second at Kempsey on September 2
|Race 8 FORSTER-TUNCURRY GOLD CUP (2100m):|
Now for the feature, and it's a very competitive contest, with most on or near the limit weight. One of those, 7YO Newcastle gelding 9. Oakfield Monarch looks ready to peak third-up dropping sharply in weight after finishing nicely in his last two at Scone and Hawkesbury.
Dangers: Gosford 6YO gelding 8. Albert Of Monaco is one-paced, but has been threatening to win one all prep, close-up in two of his last three. Had a searching trial in the lead-up, and won't know himself dropping a mile down in weight to 54kg. Muswellbrook 6YO gelding 1. Dalmatia Prince has a class edge after three solid runs in stronger metro company, but conceding most of the field a stack of weight. Gosford 5YO gelding 3. Zoffany's Lad charged home to win a good BM 64 at Newcastle two runs back before doing it tough on the heavy in a stronger BM 78 at Rosehill. Much better placed here back on top of the ground, and draws well. Wyong 5YO gelding 11. Captain's Legend takes on tougher opposition here after finishing hard at Tamworth last start, but another who drops a staggering 7kg to the limit weight; while 5YO Coffs Harbour gelding 12. Ambitious Prince is also up in grade after a BM 58 win at Taree, and rising in distance, but is hitting peak fitness.
How to play it: Oakfield Monarch each way and box trifecta 1,3,8,9. Odds and Evens: Odds.
|Race 9 BM 66 HCP (1200m):|
Even and competitive closer, although promising 3YO Newcastle filly 12. Fanciful Dream is the clear one on the rise, and draws to get a lovely trail just off the speed. Powered home to win her last two, and extra trip ideal.
Dangers: Warwick Farm 5YO mare 5. Snitzagirl has been consistent this prep winning three runs back at Muswellbrook before close-up seconds at Scone and on the synthetic at Canberra. Draws to get a charmed run, and should be in the finish. Coffs Harbour 5YO gelding 9. Bolghari can pick his day to fire, but better suited back to his right trip, and did take on Highway company three runs back; while 6YO Wyong mare 7. Ondo Pasa has been doing her best work late around this grade, and gets a little weight relief from her last run at Muswellbrook.
How to play it: Fanciful Dream to win and quinella 5 and 12. Odds and Evens: Split.