By Neil Evans
Track Good 3 and rail out 3m so should lean on or just off the pace
|Race 1 CL1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2000m):|
The stayers kick things off at set weights, and up in trip, 4YO Port Macquarie mare 5. Veganza looks very hard to beat after rattling home over the mile last start. In fact, has hit the line all prep over shorter trips, including a dominant maiden win two runs back, and this looks ideal fifth run into the prep for leading trainer/rider combination.
Dangers: Improving Warwick Farm filly 7. Glamarama Girl has found the line okay in her last couple, and draws the fence. Port Macquarie 4YO gelding 6. Follow Our Dream is still to break through, but hasn't been far off in last couple, and will park on speed; while 4YO Newcastle mare 8. Dreamfyre rocketed home two runs back at home when specked at a big price, and again will drift back and look to charge home late.
How to play it: Veganza to win and quinella 5 and 7. Odds and Evens (First 2): Evens.
|Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1250m):|
With most of these battling and been around plenty of times, three younger and more lightly raced ones can fight this out, headed by well bred 2YO Newcastle filly 11. Hard Lady who just missed on debut in a decent maiden at Cessnock when well backed.
Dangers: Port Macquarie 3YO filly 7. I'm Fluent resumed with a nice finishing effort at Grafton, and extra trip suits; while big watch on 3YO Gosford filly and first starter 8. Midnite Saga (Real Saga x Spirit Of The Nite by Slavic) who draws well and trialled okay in the heavy, and stable is smart at striking early.
How to play it: Hard Lady to win. Odds and Evens: Split.
|Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1250m):|
More depth here, and looks a nice assignment for 3YO Central Coast gelding 4. Monterey Lad off a seven week freshen-up. Was competitive against stronger up to the mile earlier in the year, and draws to get a nice trail just off the speed. Hit the line full of running in only lead-up trial.
Dangers: Gosford 2YO gelding 9. Django Unreined didn't fire on debut at Tamworth back in April, but looked forward in a recent trial win, and stable is in the midst of a good run. Keep 4YO Muswellbrook gelding 2. Master Ruben safe. Hasn't done much at big odds in two starts so far, but this looks a little easier over a more suitable longer trip, and top country hoop goes on; while local 5YO mare 5. Let Me Guess who draws a good barrier second-up is best of the rest.
How to play it: Monterey Lad to win and quinella 4 and 9. Odds and Evens: Split.
Monterey Lad runs second in a Newcastle trial on July 16
|Race 4 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1000m):|
Intriguing race, with a couple of debutants on show, and some promising ones resuming. Really liked the most recent trial of debutant 3YO Newcastle filly 8. Mummentum (O'Reilly x Aspinal by Pins) who finished off nicely after sitting wide, and was scratched from Tamworth on Sunday.
Dangers: Plenty of them, Gosford 3YO gelding 6. Rambler Rebel did little in first prep last year, but has been gelded, and won both recent trials so expect a different galloper this time nice and fresh and jumping from the inside gate. Newcastle 3YO gelding 5. Swordsman had no real market support first run back when boxing on hard after leading, and should improve again from the good barrier. Port Macquarie 3YO gelding and former Victorian 1. Alshahhad returns for a third prep with new stable, but no official trial. Ran three straight second placings in the autumn before failing when heavily backed on the synthetic at Pakenham. Obvious market watch first run in the region. Expect improvement too from 3YO Gosford filly 11. Pancake who was only fair resuming at Hawkesbury, but the second horse that day has since won again.
How to play it: Mummentum to win and trifecta 6,8/1,5,6,8,11. Odds and Evens: Split.
|Race 5 CL2 HCP (1250m):|
Newcastle 3YO gelding 3. Jamaican Dream has a competitive record, although doesn't win out of turn, but can go on with it here after winning a BM 58 this track. Drawn to sit just off the speed and strike early in the straight.
Dangers: Expect a better run second-up and dropping in weight from 5YO Coffs Harbour gelding 7. Explosive Missile who resumed against stronger at Grafton. Local 5YO mare 8. Natural Image doesn't win often, but has been right on the winner's heels in consecutive races around this grade after winning a Class 1 at big odds three runs back. Well in at the weights, but will need luck from a wide draw. Local 3YO gelding 5. Jest Magic landed some good bets winning two runs back before an even effort against stronger, but has to overcome a very wide barrier as well; while 4YO gelding 6. Monaco Sniper was well beaten second up by Jamaican Dream, but will be better for that run and leading country rider a big plus.
How to play it: Jamaican Dream to win. Odds and Evens: Odds.
Jamaican Dream wins at Taree on July 19
|Race 6 BM 58 (1000m):|
Open sprint with a stack of chances. Much improved Hawkesbury 5YO gelding 4. Red Notice flew home to win last start at Scone after coming through superior form races.
Dangers: Local 6YO mare 1. Lobban Hood is well capable of winning this off a break. Draws soundly, and 3kg rider helps off-set the weight. Big chance! Port Macquarie 3YO gelding 3. Just Sizzling is a get-back horse who needs luck, but charged home to win a stronger Class 3 at huge odds two runs ago before again finishing hard behind In Fiore at Grafton. Scone-trained 6YO gelding 2. Mr Snowman showed good speed leading all the way third-up at Dubbo, but this is tougher, although sneaks in with a good weight after rider's 4kg claim. Wyong 3YO filly 10. Soori hasn't really progressed after winning her maiden four runs back, but does draw a nice trailing gate; while 5YO Walcha gelding 5. Smokey Eye and local 7YO gelding 6. Akamin are both each way knock-out chances.
How to play it: Red Notice to win and first four 1,3,4/1,2,3,4,5,6,10. Odds and Evens: Split.
|Race 7 BM 58 HCP (1600m):|
Another open contest over the mile, although looks an ideal trip second-up for 5YO Newcastle mare 4. Red Heat who raced against stronger over much further ground last spring. Hit the line hard resuming on the heavy at Port Macquarie, and sired by a former Derby winner while the dam's sire won an Australian Cup!
Dangers: Rival 3YO Newcastle filly 10. Azarmin is a genuine threat peaking third-up from the good gate after finishing hard into a place in a good quality Class 3; while local mare 8. I'll Take Money is inconsistent, but can drive into the finish on her best form.
How to play it: Red Heat to win and quinella 4 and 10. Odds and Evens: Evens.
|Race 8 BM 66 HCP (1250m):|
Port Macquarie 5YO mare 3. Typhoon Bonny is as honest as they come. Has been all around the money in this grade, including a dominant win four runs back, but will need the breaks from a wide barrier.
Dangers: Include 5YO Muswellbrook gelding 7. Magic Beneteau who draws well, and comes out of a deeper BM 66 at Scone. Never quite sure which 2. Crackneck will turn up for leading local stable, especially with multiple gear changes, but suited up in trip from the inside draw; while 5YO mare 5. Titaness makes the long journey up from Kembla, and off an improved run at the Sapphire Coast after failing twice in metro company.
How to play it: Typhoon Bonny to win. Odds and Evens: Odds.