By Neil Evans
Track Good 4 and tail out 3m from 800m to WP so on-pace early before gradual trend towards the outside
|Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):|
Tricky maiden to start, with a few first starters, and some that have been kept quiet at the trials. Local 5YO mare and first starter 3. Dubai Spoils (Dubai's Choice x Spoilt Matilda by Opera Prince) looked good in a recent home trial, and draws the fence, with leading rider booked and the blinkers on.
Dangers: Newcastle 3YO filly 4. Fanciful Dream is a big threat despite being drawn wide. Showed nice improvement second-up to just miss at Cessnock, and took on stronger metro company back in late summer. Cessnock 4YO gelding 1. Dukes County resumes without an official trial. Was good late in a decent maiden at Tamworth to finish last prep, and should appreciate the long run home here.
How to play it: Dubai Spoils each way and quinella 3 and 4. Odds and Evens (First 2): Split.
|Race 2 BM 58 HCP (1100m):|
Keen on progressive 4YO Newcastle mare 4. Without Conviction who has been freshened since beating a smart sprinter at Cessnock two runs back before hitting the line hard in a good Class 2. Trialled okay at home, and top country hoop aboard.
Dangers: Rosehill mare 1. Martha Heights bolted in her maiden at Bathurst three runs back, before two fair efforts around this grade, but handicapper hasn't missed her with 61kg. Quirindi 6YO mare 2. Snipex Abaa also rises to new weight territory under 60kg, but form is solid enough for this and draws a nice barrier to sit right behind the speed. Include local 3YO filly 5. Strapping Conquest in exotics after cruising home to win her maiden at Dubbo despite drifting in betting, but this is tougher.
How to play it: Without Conviction to win and trifecta 1,2,4/1,2,4,5. Odds and Evens: Split.
|Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1300m):|
First starter 4YO Wyong gelding 3. Sebonna (Sebring x Epona Princess by Fastnet Rock) has been tracking nicely at the trials, and looks ready to fire on debut after winning the most recent, stalking the speed and sweeping through the line under a nice hold.
Dangers: Newcastle gelding 10. Salsa Dreaming who is suited this distance second-up, and draws to get an economical run back in the pack. Another well bred Newcastle filly 14. Predictable Miss charged late resuming at Cessnock when easy in betting, although debatable whether she can progress enough second-up to take down this field; while keep a close watch on local 3YO filly 13. Pair Of Heels - by a Cox Plate winner - with the blinkers going on. Flopped on the heavy at Hawkesbury six weeks back, but much better off back on top of the ground, and has trialled behind the smart Mandela who won at Randwick on Saturday.
How to play it: Sebonna to win. Odds and Evens: Split.
|Race 4 CL1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):|
Another competitive battle for those on the rise. Wyong 4YO gelding 1. Poulton Le Sands is ready to win reaching the mile third-up after flying home this track in his last two. Will naturally drift back again, and is up in weight, but placement looks ideal for a stable having a very solid run.
Dangers: Rival Wyong gelding 3. Tann Hills improved to upset a good field at double figure odds this track last start, and from the good gate, hard to see how he won't be in the finish again. Newcastle mare 5. Airlie Avenue has ability, and continues to find the line this prep, but inside draw may not suit her racing pattern; while 5YO Hawkesbury mare 9. Speed Camera has hit the line hard in her last two, and is an each way knock-out hope.
How to play it: Poulton Le Sands to win. Odds and Evens: Odds a Special.
Poulton Le Sands runs third at Scone on July 12
|Race 5 BM 66 HCP (1600m):|
Evenly graded affair, but the timing's right for local 5YO gelding 6. The Warlord who has had little or no luck from wide barriers in three runs back, including a last-start Rosehill Highway, and this looks ideal back at home where he can either lead, or sit outside.
Dangers: Wyong 4YO mare 7. Belle De Vega is promising and suited fourth-up at the mile. Comes out of a strong form race where the second horse bolted in at Muswellbrook on Sunday, and was scratched from a later race. Muswellbrook, 5YO gelding 5. Roy's Command improved fourth-up to win a weaker race at Taree, and drops in weight; while keep a market watch on two runners resuming for the Kris Lees yard in Newcastle. Staying gelding 2. Oakfield Monarch campaigned against stronger over the Qld winter carnival, and has been given a quiet trial; while 6YO stablemate and former Victorian 3. Cullingworth is first up for seven months off two quiet trials, and is Northern Hemisphere-bred to get over much further ground.
How to play it: The Warlord to win and quinella 6 and 7. Odds and Evens: Split.
The Warlord runs second at Scone on July 12
|Race 6 C, G & E BM 58 HCP (1100m):|
Local 6YO gelding 4. Marokawa made up a lot of ground last start this track in a stronger Class 2, and while up in weight and drawn out, he's ready to win with top jockey back on board.
Dangers: Local 3YO gelding 7. Golden Avenger was entitled to win by further second start at Wellington as a hot favourite, but he's on the rise, and gets in light after jockey's 4kg claim. Front-running local 7YO gelding 1. Mr Snowman cruised home this grade two runs back before fighting on strong last start when only run over in the last few strides. Will be there for a long way again from a good draw, and in well again at the weights after rider's 4kg claim. Muswellbrook 5YO gelding 6. Dragoneight hasn't won since Taree this grade five runs back, but continues to hold his form in deeper races, although not well treated at the weights.
How to play it: Marokawa to win and trifecta 4,7/1,4,6,7.
|Race 7 CL2 HCP (1300m):|
Good race to finish, with high class local 4YO gelding 1. Mr Wong a near good thing despite rising to 61kg. Progressed quickly through fast-finishing efforts in consecutive metro Highways before totally luckless again in a Randwick Highway last start when hard in the market. Will settle back from a good trailing draw, and look to sweep over the top.
Dangers: Doubt there are any, but rival local mare 3. Charlotte's Heart hasn't been far away in her last couple, and will be attacking the line late; while 5YO Newcastle mare 5. Belle Of Portugal has shown smart improvement this prep, finishing hard in decent form races from well off the speed in her last two. Mudgee 4YO gelding and last start Dubbo winner 8. Lawnmeet is best of the rest.
How to play it: Mr Wong to win. Odds and Evens: Odds a Special.