By Neil Evans
Track likely around Heavy 8/9 with plenty of lead-up rain and rail back to true
|Race 1 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2200m):|
We start a strong program over the staying trip on a track that has absorbed plenty of rain. Among a stack of chances improving local mare 6. Ellia can make it two wins from her last three, with blinkers coming off. Finished best to win her maiden at Muswellbrook two runs back before close-up at Dubbo, and while first time in these sort of conditions, she's bred to be effective in the wet.
Dangers: Naturally plenty of them headed by Muswellbrook 4YO 7. Double Magnum who stuck on well behind the top selection at third start, and looking for this longer trip, with a handy 2kg claim. Another 4YO 8. Dunlee produced his best run in a while up in distance at Taree, and will appreciate the bigger track here.
How to play it: Ellia to win and box exacta 6,7,8. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):|
Back to the sprint trip for the maidens, and keen on 3YO filly 12. Impulse Control who debuts for a smart Newcastle yard off an impressive trial win. Bred to fire in wet ground being by prolific Exceed And Excel out of a mare by 1994 Melbourne Cup winner Jeune.
Dangers: Newcastle filly 14. Superel has travelled more or less like the winner in three career runs so far, but always struggled to find the line under late pressure. Loomed to win first-up at Coffs, and while she's bred to be good in the wet, a further 100m must be a query. Big market watch on local 4YO 4. Pride Of Mo who debuts off a handy trial for leading stable; while keep safe rival local 3YO 6. Ananagram who resumes for an in-form stable off two progressive trials.
How to play it: Impulse Control to win and box trifecta 4,6,12,14. Odds and Evens: Evens a special
|Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):|
Take two is an even wider and trickier affair. Liked the debut run of Newcastle filly 13. Only Need Time finishing strongly at Port, and with natural improvement should relish the bigger track.
Dangers: Stablemate filly 14. Tip Toes resumes off a controlled trial for her first run in NSW. Must respect home track 4YO stallion 1. Frontline who debuts off two trial wins, and sire was a high class wet track performer.
How to play it: Only Need Time each way and box exacta 1,13,14. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1300m):|
Home track 3YO gelding 5. Still In Fashion made a solid enough debut here over this trip, bounding clear early in the straight before rolling back to the inside late under pressure. With race experience, only needs to handle the ground to be the one to beat.
Dangers: Similarly this looks a nice second-up race for rival 3YO 2. Commando Hunt who charged home at Mudgee, although heavy track credentials are a query. Newcastle filly 12. Nouvelle can also figure staying at the distance after a sound debut at Taree, and is bred to handle the wet.
How to play it: Still In Fashion to win. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):|
Very keen here on progressive 4YO Newcastle mare 3. Whatsin third-up on a track she should relish. Powered home for an impressive maiden win first-up at Hawkesbury before again strong late at Mudgee carrying half kilo more. Has already performed in heavy ground, and this suits.
Dangers: Local mare 6. Birdonawinningpost landed a big betting move scoring at Dubbo in only third start. Include 9. Miss Kojiki who led all the way to claim her maiden third-up at Taree, and has handy tactical speed; while hard-fit and last-start maiden winner 5. From The Hip draws to use his early speed, but a big risk in wet ground.
How to play it: Whatsin to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
Whatsin runs fourth at Mudgee on December 4
|Race 6 BM 66 HCP (1300m):|
Good race with plenty of chances. Local 5YO mare 7. She's Never Late is well placed despite drawing off the track. Rattled home late to win this grade here two runs back before tackling tougher metro grade with a fair closing effort. Handles the wet, and expect her to be powering home again.
Dangers: Capable Newcastle mare 14. Hard Lady resumes off a quiet trial, and was scratched from Taree on Sunday to be saved for this.
How to play it: She's Never Late to win. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):|
Back to the short course, and improving home track filly 8. Baiyka can go back-to-back in these conditions. Was well supported before clinging on to win her maiden here third-up, and while hasn't proved herself in heavy going, she's bred to handle it.
Dangers: Newcastle filly 1. Dominant Lady has plenty of ability, and sailed home for an easy first-up maiden win at home, but failed badly last time on heavy ground, albeit in tougher metro company. Gulgong mare 10. Missile Rain is hard-fit, and bred to handle the going.
How to play it: Baiyka to win and box exacta 1,8,10. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 8 BM 58 HCP (1100m):|
Home track 5YO gelding 1. Expellable had trialled impressively before missing by a whisker first-up in a handy BM 58 at Mudgee. Stable has placed him judiciously here, with both career wins so far coming in rain-affected ground, and there's much bigger prizes in store down the track. The one to beat!
Dangers: Muswellbrook mare 8. Owhata Crumpet has won her last two, and will spear across from a wide draw and try to dictate, but over a little further on this big long straight might be a bridge too far.
How to play it: Expellable to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
Expellable runs second at Mudgee on December 4