By Neil Evans
Track Soft 7 & Rail out +2m from 1200m to 800m, then 4m from 800m to 350m:
|Race 1 BM 58 HCP (1000m):|
We start the final day of the year with the restricted sprinters in a race with some depth, and keen on Warwick Farm 5YO 2. Nostre Re third-up over his pet trip. Was close-up resuming in a much tougher metro BM 72 before a touch flat at Goulburn, but has tactical speed and is better suited on the smaller track.
Dangers: Watch the market on local 4YO gelding 5. Blue Missile who resumes from a soft draw and has trialled well; while 4YO 4. No Doubt A Star gets preferred rain-affected ground second-up.
How to play it: Nostre Re to win & box exacta 2,4,5. Odds and Evens: Split
Nostre Re runs second at Goulburn on December 18
|Race 2 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):|
Still over the five furlongs in a good quality race for this grade. Progressive 3YO Randwick gelding 2. Shadow Chaser can win for the second time after four starts in smarter provincial class, despite being up in weight and back in distance. Can utilise his natural speed from the inside barrier, and only win so far came on debut at Kembla on a Heavy 10.
Dangers: Promising Warwick Farm filly 9. Passistas is a threat from the good draw. Fought hard to beat a smart one on debut at Mudgee, and has been given a little freshen-up via an easy trial. Well bred Rosehill and former SA filly 6. Cinderella hasn't started since the autumn, but fitted with two trials, and the new yard has made several key gear changes. Improving 5YO 3. Impediment stuck on well here at only his third start, and also won on debut in rain-affected ground; while watch for Kembla 5YO 5. Charm Offensive to be surging home late deep into the prep in ground he likes.
How to play it: Shadow Chaser to win and quinella 2 & 9. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 3 F & M MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):|
Now the girls' lock horns, and it's a tricky affair with several fillies on debut. One, though, with race experience and fitness on her side is 3YO Warwick Farm filly 14. Zouly who can break through third-up. Comes back from provincial class, closing hard on debut, then caught wide second-up, and like the fact blinkers are back on. Looking for a little more ground now, and has the form country rider aboard to off-set the wide gate.
Dangers: Kembla 3YO filly 4. Comeback Star, like the top selection is by Zoustar, trialled impressively for a leading provincial stable. Debutant filly 7. Kamea has been close-up in two trials, and bred to handle the wet. Watch the betting on 3YO filly 12. Revolutionary Girl who draws a nice debut gate, and has been given an easy time at the trials. Another 'Farm filly on debut 6. Golden Chances is a market watch off two trials with blinkers on.
How to play it: Zouly to win. Odds and Evens: Evens
Zouly runs third at Hawkesbury on December 13
|Race 4 C, G & E MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):|
Very testing maiden. Improving Goulburn 3YO 8. Giftgiver is likely to go out hard from a wide draw after a brave effort at home leading when ultimately no match for the winner. Bred to handle rain-affected ground, and with that experience, better advantaged on the tighter track.
Dangers: Keep safe on debut Randwick 3YO 12. Sarandos who has had two progressive trials for a leading metro stable, and is bred to plough through rain-affected ground. It's taken a long time for Goulburn 3YO and ex-Kiwi 10. Philipsburg to start this side of the Tasman since a one-off debut for the Jamie Richards stable more than a year ago. Has had a string of spaced trials where he seemed to travel okay, and draws the inside. Hard to believe Kembla 5YO 6. Willy Wilson is still a maiden at his 19th start after attacking the line to just miss behind a handy one here earlier this month. Previous wet track form is solid enough.
How to play it: Giftgiver to win. Odds and Evens: Evens a special
|Race 5 CLASS 3 HCP (1200m):|
Very competitive field on show. Keen at the big value on Kembla 5YO 3. Against The Tide dropping back in trip. Led all the way to win a BM 64 three runs back, before buckling late under the pressure of consecutive Summer Provincial Series Heats over further. Drawn to get a nice run on-speed, and will relish a soft surface.
Dangers: Warwick Farm 4YO 4. Nikohli Beagle has returned in dynamic fashion for the new stable bolting in his maiden at Orange by more than five lengths before a comfortable Class 1 win at Kembla. Has plenty of ability, but first time drawn off the track in a deeper race, and unproven in these conditions. Expect Kembla mare 5. Chicadilly to improve after three solid runs back at home in BM 64 grade. Watch the betting on 4YO 6. Avion Fury who resumes as a gelding off an easy trial, and normally comes to hand quickly. Randwick 4YO 2. Vox Pop capped some improving form beating a handy BM 65 field at Canberra, although not treated well at the weights. Gosford mare 7. Divine Approach disappointed first-up at Coffs, but she has plenty of ability and draws okay; while include in wider exotics Hawkesbury mare 12. Elenara who is hard fit and down in weight after charging home in the Belle Of The South here.
How to play it: Against The Tide each way and first four 3,4,5,6/3,4,5,6/2,3,4,5,6,7,12/2,3,4,5,6,7,12. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 6 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1600m):|
Open field for the feature race. Talented Randwick 4YO 12. Lama cruised to the front and bolted in his maiden as a hot favourite at Queanbeyan. Drops in weight, although drawn off the track for this much tougher assignment, but has shown more than enough in soft ground at the trials.
Dangers: Warwick Farm 5YO 5. Temperate is building towards a win after hitting the line late in the Fred Cooper at Goulburn; while include in exotics 7YO 1. First Footman who resumes off two quiet trials; and Kembla mare 9. Genoveffa who went close in a weaker race at Queanbeyan last start, and drops significantly in weight.
How to play it: Lama to win. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 7 MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):|
We close out 2020 with the maidens over a mile, and we can almost lock in promising Warwick Farm 4YO and ex-Kiwi 2. Jesse James after beating all bar the winner in three runs this prep. Was only collared in the last few strides last start as an odds-on fancy, and very capable in the ground.
Dangers: Improving 3YO 5. Contradeel is a threat, especially if the top selection is scratched. Worked home nicely in only second start at Kembla, and being by Dundeel, will keep improving as the distance gets longer. Trainer has added blinkers. Consistent Kembla mare 11. Misty Brook is the likely leader. Has fought on well in two runs this time in, and bred to thrive in these conditions.
How to play it: Jesse James to win and quinella 2 & 5. Odds and Evens: Split.