By Neil Evans
Track improving to around Soft 7 and rail true for Showcase Cup day meeting
|Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1600m):|
We start with a tricky maiden over a mile where most will benefit from an improving track over the last 48 hours. The two provincial runs of Randwick 3YO 2. Nu Jiang have been solid enough. Should appreciate the longer trip, and his dam was sired by a real mudlark.
Dangers: Improving Warwick Farm 3YO 5. Legal Challenge worked home nicely in a handy maiden at Canberra on heavy ground two runs back, and the second horse has since bolted in. Up to this trip fourth-up is a plus.
How to play it: Nu Jiang to win. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):|
Canberra 4YO 4. One Man Band has been up for a while, but ready to break through in conditions he should relish. Has been well in the market and close enough all prep on rain-affected going, and worked home nicely last start when slow to begin. Senior metro rider goes on, and just needs to slot in from a wide draw. Was scratched from Canberra on Tuesday to be saved for this.
Dangers: Rival Canberra filly 11. Dancin' Til Dawn is also on the cusp of winning after working home solidly in his last couple on wet tracks. Only missed a place once from her last five, and also preferred here to home track meeting on Tuesday. Local 4YO 2. Newtown Braveheart can go close at second start after hitting the line late on debut at Wagga on a Soft 7 rating after being slow to begin.
How to play it: One Man Band to win and box exacta 2,4,11. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 3 BM 66 HCP (1200m):|
Warwick Farm 5YO 1. Skyray is a classy sprinter, and won two of his last three powering home from midfield. Query getting through these conditions under a big weight, but the more the track improves the better.
Dangers: Randwick 4YO 5. Destiny's Son has been inconsistent this prep, but has a preference for rain-affected going, and can figure fifth-up. Kembla 5YO 9. Against The Tide hasn't been far off them in three runs this prep, and is bred to get through rain-affected ground.
How to play it: box exacta 1,5,9. Odds and Evens: Odds
|Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):|
Should be a reasonably solid tempo in this one, and that augurs well for progressive 3YO Warwick Farm colt 9. Astero who is the superior wet tracker over an ideal distance. Was freshened up before charging home to win his maiden on the heavy at Canberra, easily beating Wandonna who destroyed maiden opposition at his next start.
Dangers: Local 5YO 7. Azoustic did his best work late second-up at Canberra, and suited up to this journey. Untried in heavy ground, but breeding is a strong pointer. Scratched from home track on Tuesday to be saved for this. Warwick Farm 4YO 1. Bluff 'N' Bluster hit the line nicely second-up at Newcastle, and thrives on rain-affected ground.
How to play it: Astero to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Astero wins at Canberra on October 9
|Race 5 CLASS 2 HCP (1600m):|
With the field greatly reduced in size, Warwick Farm filly 8. Arctic Thunder looks to have this at her mercy. Has won two from three so far, charging home to claim a weaker CL2 at Bathurst. Up only 1kg for this, and improving track is a bonus.
Dangers: Warwick Farm 5YO 5. Moon Panther hasn't been beaten far in all four runs this prep at BM 64 level.
How to play it: Arctic Thunder to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Arctic Thunder wins at Bathurst on October 16
|Race 6 BM 66 HCP (1600m):|
Another open battle over the mile, with plenty of chances. Consistent local 4YO 2. Rent A Rock looks well placed third-up from the draw after being narrowly edged out in consecutive Highways at Randwick. Shoots up to 60kg, but hard fit and will appreciate an improving track especially if it gets back in Soft 7 range.
Dangers: Another one trained on the track, 7YO 5. Defy can mix his form, but was close-up on Soft 7 at Wagga; while Cowra mare 7. Lygia flashed home to win a weaker race at Leeton, and handles rain-affected going.
How to play it: Rent A Rock to win. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 7 GOULBURN CUP (1400m):|
Now for the feature race. Tough and under-rated local 6YO 7. Al Mah Haha is ready to win again coming off a solid Kosciuszko run, and improves again up to this trip third-up. Has rock solid wet track form, and was scratched from Rosehill on Saturday to be saved for this.
Dangers: Tough Canberra 5YO 2. Handle The Truth was also strong to the line in the Kosciuszko, and is suited up this distance and well treated at the weights. Rival high class and tough 8YO 1. Man Of Peace backs up from the Yes Yes Yes run at Rosehill on Saturday behind super sprinter Gytrash, and relishes any rain-affected going. Incredibly has his first run on the Goulburn track in 56th start. Expect a big run fresh from Warwick Farm 6YO 3. Noble Boy who thrives on wet tracks, and has trialled okay; while progressive Randwick 4YO 6. Chat drops back in class from the Silver Eagle after sweeping home to win a metro BM 78.
How to play it: Al Mah Haha each way and trifecta: 2,7/1,2,3,6,7/1,2,3,6,7. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 8 GUY WALTER F & M CLASS 3 HCP (1300m):|
Toughest race on the card to finish. Randwick 4YO mare 9. Running Four Bub may be the most talented in the race, and just needs to get through these conditions. Won her last two impressively, and is on the up. Was preferred here to Randwick on Tuesday.
Dangers: Rival Randwick mare 5. Miss Twilight is on the verge having found the line well in three provincial runs since landing her maiden here first-up on a Heavy 9.
How to play it: Running Four Bub to win. Odds and Evens: Odds