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Neil Evans' Tips For Dubbo (Friday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and Rail out 6m from 1000m - 400m then True, so on-pace early before levelling out

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1020m):

Local 3YO filly 5. Bellszov Bourke (Zoffany x Belvain by Bel Esprit) is bred for speed on both sides, but hasn't been seen officially since destroying her rivals in a Narromine trial back in late March. Good juvenile stable, and draws well for debut, with the blinkers going on.

Dangers: Debutant Orange 3YO gelding 4. Vaquero (High Chaparral x Fashion Rocks by Dehere) trialled nicely late last year, but has taken a while to get to the races. Include another Scone 2YO filly 10. Strapping Conquest in exotics, having slowly improved over four runs in her first prep, and draws the fence; while 3YO Nyngan debutant 3. Supreme Legend (Supreme Class x Sneak A Nip by Volcanic Prince) is best of the rest.

How to play it: Bellszov Bourke to win; Odds & Evens (First 2): Split.

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1620m):

Low grade affair here. Love the value about local 4YO gelding 8. Get Up Alby who can break through at 13th start. Was okay late in a stronger maiden at Mudgee, and previous form stacks up well in this company.

Dangers: Orange 5YO mare 7. Cat Walk Queen gets her chance to break through at 22nd start. Finished okay two runs back this track before a sound on-speed effort in that same maiden at Mudgee behind Via Condotti. Local 3YO gelding 3. Arraign has only one placing from 12 starts, but found the line nicely from a wide gate and under more weight this track last start. Over the odds.

How to play it: Get Up Alby to win; Odds & Evens: Split.

Get Up Alby's last start fourth at Mudgee on July 7

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1320m):

Tough and open race. Gulgong 3YO gelding 2. Duntroon Man resumes, and normally comes to hand fairly quickly. Has had two trials, and draws to get the right sort of trail off the speed.

Dangers: If local 3YO gelding 9. Schwanky Doo gets even luck from the wide barrier, he'll be in the finish. Didn't do much in three runs, but back on home track powered home to just miss at fourth career start. Local 2YO colt 5. Witness Collector has steadily improved across three runs in his first prep, and draws well.

How to play it: Duntroon Man each way; Odds & Evens: Split.

Race 4 CL1 HCP (1320m):

Gulgong mare 6. Tropicana Lass had a nine week freshen up after two fair runs over the mile, and hit the line hard over a shorter trip at Mudgee last start. Smart enough for this, and generally peaks second-up.

Dangers: Rival Mudgee 3YO gelding 3. Lawnmeet has loomed to win plenty of races, but only saluted once from nine. Boxed on okay after covering ground this track last start, and drawn much better third-up here for leading trainer/rider combination. Wyong 4YO gelding 2. Brixton Town has done his best work late in two runs this prep, and should be suited back on a more spacious track with top country rider jumping back on.

How to play it: Tropicana Lass each way; Odds & Evens: Split.

Race 5 CL1 HCP (1320m):

Play it again Sam. Improving 4YO Bathurst mare 2. Heavenly Glory produced a sustained finish from midfield resuming off a long break to win her maiden this track at second start. Breeding suggests this is a nice rise in distance, and stable is having a strong run.

Dangers: Local 3YO gelding 1. Toulon Brook is a nice horse who produced a big run to just miss in a tight BM 58 finish this track two runs back before disappointing in similar grade at Coonamble when getting a mile back. Gulgong filly 4. Song Of Luck appreciated a wet track powering over the top at Ballina to win her maiden two runs back before closing off okay this trip and track.

How to play it: Heavenly Glory to win; Odds & Evens: Split.

Heavenly Glory wins first-up at Dubbo on June 30

Race 6 OPEN HCP (1620m):

Wellington-trained 7YO gelding 3. Steamin' was unwanted in betting second-up at Mudgee, but still hit the line hard in a good quality BM 81. This is his best trip, and looks well weighted for a horse beaten under two lengths in the much stronger Mudgee Cup last December.

Dangers: Another 7YO and popular local 1. Any Blinkin' Day took advantage of a drop in weight to win this grade and trip two runs back when heavily specked in the market before fighting on into a place at Canterbury. Back up in weight on home track, but draws to park right behind the speed. Local 5YO gelding 9. Helstar kept improving to land a Class 3 this track last start when well backed, and looks ready for tougher grade dropping in weight; while 6YO gelding 7. Podium Bound has won two of his last three at BM 58 level when sparingly raced, but while significantly down in weight, this is much tougher.

How to play it: Steamin' to win and box trifecta 1-3-7-9; Odds & Evens: Odds.

Race 7 BM 66 HCP (1020m):

Good competitive race. Smart 5YO Scone gelding 1. Atum should have made it back to back BM 58 wins this track two runs back before a sustained show of speed to lead all the way at Tamworth. This is tougher, but rider's 3kg claim gets him in nicely.

Dangers: Huge market watch on local 5YO gelding and former smart juvenile 4. Pray To The Sky who hasn't started for 21 months, but dashed away to effortlessly win a recent home trial by more than four lengths, and will wear visors. Well-bred sprinter who on won on debut at Hawkesbury more than three years ago, but has spent most of the time in the paddock since. Mudgee 3YO filly 10. Key Factor has a good strike rate and resumes for leading stable. Very capable fresh, and has the early speed to off-set the wide draw. Dubbo 5YO gelding 2. Larlabrook is yet to recapture the form of mid 2018 when he was placed in a much stronger Randwick Highway. Didn't fire first-up this track when in the market, but expect natural improvement in just his third run for 12 months, with the blinkers going on. Include 6YO Condoblin gelding 3. Hope Island in exotics who resumes off a nice trial win. Big watch on local 5YO gelding 9. Sons Of Bourke who resumes after a solid campaign in the autumn, and is normally good fresh; while Mudgee 8YO gelding 7. Escebee rarely runs a bad race, and drops sharply in weight for this tougher test.

How to play it: Atum each way and box exacta 1-4-10; Odds & Evens: Split.

Race 8 CL2 HCP (1120m):

Open battle with a stack of chances. Expecting big improvement second-up and back on firmer ground from progressive 3YO Orange filly 3. Supreme Gem who didn't fire first-up, but much better suited here.

Dangers: Nyngan 3YO gelding 2. Supreme Attraction returns for a second prep off a near 10 month break without an official trial, but has worked well, and did win a weaker race on debut last year. Capable 4YO mare 11. Invincible Thunder looks well placed at the weights resuming for strong local stable. Hawkesbury 4YO gelding 1. Choice Harvest took on stronger last prep, and got home nicely resuming on the synthetic at Canberra. Drawn to get plenty of cover midfield, with a 3kg claim. Gulgong 3YO filly 4. Smart Moove is building a nice record, and went through the early grades well last prep, but inside draw may not suit her natural pattern. Improving Nyngan 4YO gelding 7. Festival Of Light bolted in third-up, but draws right off the track here; while expect improvement also from Wyong mare 12. Cunningar Lass who never got warm resuming at Muswellbrook, and senior rider goes on.

How top play it: Supreme Gem each way and first four 2-3-11/1-2-3-4-7-11-12; Odds & Evens: Split.

Race 9 BM 58 HCP (1420m):

It doesn't get much easier here. Gulgong 3YO gelding 1. Larynx has the quality and won this grade three runs back, but has to cart a big weight.

Dangers: Mudgee 4YO gelding 9. Thunderzone has drawn the widest gate, but ridden cold is capable of charging late into the finish. Two other rival Mudgee geldings 3. Humboldt and last-start BM 58 winner this track 4. Griffin's Gaze will also both drift back from wider barriers, and look to finish hard; while include consistent 4YO gelding 5. Sipharderson with nearly all his success coming here on his home track.

How to play it: Larynx to win; Odds & Evens: Odds.

All the fields, form and replays for Friday's Dubbo meeting

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