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Neil Evans' Tips For Bathurst (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail true so on pace early before levelling out.

Race 1 CLASS 3 HCP (1400m):

Small but competitive field to start. Local 5YO mare 2. The Long Run rises a little in trip, and looks well in at the weights getting a massive 8.5 kg from the top-weight after the rider's claim. Won two straight earlier in the prep before finishing off okay in consecutive BM 58s.

Dangers: Gosford 5YO gelding 1. Monsieur Macron has been knocking on the door all prep in stronger company hitting the line hard at the Gold Coast before over-run late up to the mile on his home track. Consistency and form has pushed him up to a high 60 kg, giving the others a huge weight advantage. Canberra 6YO mare 3. Pink Moscato struggles to win, but pulled one out of the fire at Queanbeyan two starts back despite unwanted in betting. Also thrown in at the weights after a 3 kg allowance; while 6YO Cowra mare 4. Dictation is another one down in weight, with leading country rider aboard.

How to play it: The Long Run to win and trifecta 1,2/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4. Odds and Evens (First 2): Split

Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

Thinner maiden at set weights, and keen on 3YO Warwick Farm filly 8. Stoked getting out to the right trip at third start. Was only fair on debut before improving to go down narrowly in a handy maiden at Canberra, and draws to get a soft run.

Dangers: Expect big improvement third-up from 3YO Hawkesbury gelding 5. Primal Scream who has disappointed in two runs back at Newcastle, but this is weaker, and can improve enough edging out in distance. Warwick Farm 3YO gelding 4. Overflowing is hard fit, and found the line nicely in his last two at Canberra; while big watch on stablemate 3YO gelding 3. Buzz 'N' Joe who failed on debut back in May, but has had two trials, the latest close-up behind highly rated Battleground. Hawkesbury 3YO gelding 2. Allied Invasion didn't fire a shot at big odds first-up at home, but that was a much stronger field than here, and an obvious improver for quality trainer/rider combination.

How to play it: Stoked to win. Odds and Evens: Split


Stoked runs second at Canberra on November 29

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1300m):

Warwick Farm 3YO filly 4. Testing Times, stablemate to previous top selection, looks suited out to 1300m at third career start after missing by a head in a handy maiden at Mudgee. Draws to get a nice trail right behind the speed.

Dangers: The home-town Stanley clan haven't been far away all prep with improving 5YO mare 2. Twice The Value, and looking for this longer trip now from the inside gate. Gulgong 3YO filly 6. Amy's Shadow comes out of that same Mudgee maiden when doing her best work late on debut, although would need to find a couple of lengths.

How to play it: Testing Times to win. Odds and Evens: Evens.

Race 4 BATHURST TOYOTA HCP (1400m):

Battle of tactics in this one, and looks a race in two! Scone 4YO gelding 5. Dubai Tycoon has been right around the money in good company all prep, and looks very hard to beat at the weights. Finished well for three straight placings in Qld before back in trip and doing his best work late as a rock solid favourite in a BM 66 at Tamworth. Drops a hefty 6.5 kg from that run, and drawn to find the right trail.

Dangers: Gosford 4YO mare 1. Charmed Princess is up in weight and will need a good speed on up front, but can win again off a strong closing effort in a Heat of the Provincial Series at Newcastle. Previously had finished under four lengths in a tougher BM 80 at Doomben behind Trevelyan who won again on Saturday. Dubbo 7YO gelding 3. Mr Epic is an honest customer with a 20 per cent winning strike rate from 50 starts. Fought hard to win a BM 66 at Narromine last start, and drops in weight, but this is tougher. Progressive 5YO Canberra gelding 2. Contaminated resumes without a public trial, but has a 50 per cent winning strike rate from just eight starts. Loves to roll in front, and who won three straight through winter before dropping out badly in tougher metro company. Drawn well, but probably will need the run.

How to play it: Dubai Tycoon to win and quinella 1 and 5. Odds and Evens: Odds


Dubai Tycoon runs second at Tamworth on December 3

Race 5 BM 58 HCP (1100m):

Tricky race for the sprinters. Forgiving of 3YO Warwick Farm filly 5. Stralex who dropped out abruptly after over-racing in front first-up at Kembla, and reportedly finding the track too firm. Had come off a nice trial win, and that was her first run in more than six months. Raced in much stronger company in first prep late last year, and on a smaller track, has the natural ability to take care of these.

Dangers: Lightly raced 4YO Cowra gelding 2. Just A Flash resumes for an under-rated stable, and has a good first-up record. Watch the market on 6YO mare and former Victorian 3. Circus Dancer having her first run for leading Dubbo yard, and won third-up in similar grade storming home from well off the speed at Bendigo. Similarly, keep 4YO Warwick Farm gelding and stablemate to top selection 4. Entitlement safe first-up off two trials, the latest had to cart the field up to tearaway leader at Hawkesbury, and stuck on nicely, so looks forward enough to give a sight.

How to play it: Stralex to win and box trifecta 2,3,4,5. Odds and Evens: Split.

Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):

Liked the way 4YO Warwick Farm mare 2. First Lady got home late resuming in a handy Class 1 at Canberra over the same distance, and her only career win so far came second-up.'

Dangers: Improving 3YO Warwick Farm filly and clear favourite 4. Kimmylee is an obvious threat after sweeping home to win on debut in Canberra, was then good late in a handy Class 1 form race at Kembla. Up in weight, but draws to get a lovely trail around midfield. Wellington 3YO gelding 1. Athena's Lad roared home for a dominant debut win at Narromine despite easing in betting, and leading country rider has been booked. Be surprised if anything else wins.

How to play it: First Lady each way and box exacta 1,2,4. Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 7 CLASS 2 PLATE (1300m):

Competitive and open race to finish. Talented 4YO Scone mare 8. Gem Dealer is the one to beat. Powered home to win a good quality Class 3 at Quirindi two runs back before disappointing in a similar race that wasn't run to suit. Gets in terrific at the weights after form rider's claim, and draws to get a stack of cover.

Dangers: Dubbo 6YO gelding 4. Good Time Charlie has only won twice from 34 starts, but placed 17 times generally in much stronger sprinting company. Beat all but the winner in the tough Mudgee Sprint after a string of good closing efforts, including twice behind the smart Under The Thumb and a fast-finishing third in the Crystal Sprint at Coonamble run in record time. Local 5YO gelding 7. Skipper Joe looks well placed from the draw coming back from tougher Highway company at Rosehill where he stuck on okay. Cruised home from the front here two runs back, and despite a sharp rise in weight, draws to get a good run.

How to play it: Gem Dealer to win and box exacta 4,7,8. Odds and Evens: Evens.

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Bathurst meeting

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