By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Sunday’s very handy meeting at Dubbo. The track is expected to be good and the rail is out just the 1m.
|Race 1 – 12:35PM MEN OF LEAGUE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Could be a good thing to kick off the meeting in the shape of the Cameron Crockett-trained filly 7. Fame And Fortune who makes her debut in a very winnable race. She’s taken a bit of time but she won a trial back in November in great style then was being strangled as she ran third at Dubbo in a trial on April 10. The horses she beat there were unraced so hard to get a strong line but she looked to have plenty left and is clearly on top for me.
Dangers: 2. Cutie Patoutie was huge odds at debut and ran a game second at Wellington and she worked home evenly at Narromine to fill the same placing at her only other start to date. Drawn well and has the claim again. If she continues to hold form she should be in the finish. 9. Whinging Wife was up on the speed and looked to have her chance of Coffs Harbour first-up from a break. Blinkers go on but has the negative of the wide alley to contend with. That said, rather include her than dismiss at this stage. 5. Be A Diva has only had the one trial almost a month ago and it's hard to get overly excited but the fact she's only had one makes her a bit of a watch as there's likely to be upside.
How to play it: Fame And Fortune WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Watch Fame And Fortune running third in her Dubbo trial on April 10
|Race 2 - 1:10PM RACING MATES SILVER GOBLET PREVIEW (1100 METRES)|
High degree of confidence that a first starter will win this race so that leaves us with five of the 10. 8. Onida is likely the favourite due to the Kris Lees/Greg Ryan factor and she may well win but I would have liked to have seen a bit more in her trials to be rushing in at a short quote. Goes on top but not super confident.
Dangers: 10. Supreme Gem contested the same trial as Fame And Fortune here almost a month ago and she attacked the line quite well under some riding late. Based on the trial she should like the extra distance and wouldn’t shock to see her show up. 2. Horora Vel didn’t do much in her first trial but the second was an improvement and she wasn’t asked for a whole lot late beating one home. The blinkers applied here, they weren’t on in the trial, and from a handy draw he could surprise too. 1. Divine Missile was runner-up in a Gosford trial before contesting a trial on the same day as Onida and Horora Vel. Worth some thought.
How to play it: Onida & Supreme Gem Quinella.
Onida's latest trial at Newcastle on April 24
|Race 3 – 1:45PM BLACK DOG RIDE PLATE (1300 METRES)|
It’s a nice long run home at Dubbo so I’m not going to fear the barrier 8. Pat’s Nipper has come up with for his second start after an eye-catching debut at Armidale. Found the 1100m and short run home no help to him but surged late to grab the minor money there and can only be better for it. Probably concedes a start but if he hits the line with the same gusto he’s a good each-way chance.
Dangers: 11. Bangkok is pretty short in the market but she is consistent with five seconds from eight starts. Beaten favourite here back in February and again at Mudgee two starts ago, was a drifter in betting at Muswellbrook last time and boxed on after racing outside the leader. Has another chance but a bit too short for my liking. 9. Streetscape is a six-year-old gelding on debut for Cameron Crockett and while he’s obviously taken some time I did quite like the way he finished off his latest trial under a hold a bit over a week ago. Drawn soft and if some support comes for him it’s not beyond him to run well. 14. Mistica More hasn’t done a lot in two starts at provincial level on wet tracks and is quite short as second favourite given her two trials have been okay without saying ‘back me’. But she is from the Kris Lees yard so that shaves a point or two off. One of those horses you have to throw in just in case.
How to play it: Pat’s Nipper E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Look out for Pat’s Nipper charging into third at Armidale on April 15
|Race 4 – 2.20PM LIFELINE BOYS DAY OUT PLATE (1600 METRES)|
A race of three or four winning chances and the result may come down to luck in running. 13. Sass’n’twinkle has now strung together six placings and likely she’s better for having a run a mile now too. She closed off well at Wellington two back then was a bit flat at Narromine but boxed on. That was a Class 1 so she’s back to her right grade and you can do worse than back her each-way.
Dangers: 3. Destiny Is Written is a 29 start maiden so he’s also an each-way commodity but he’s around the mark at his last couple, bumping into a smart one at Orange two back then trying hard at Bathurst last time. His turn will come and you can’t leave him out of this. 9. Chosen Heir is a very interesting runner now with Mack Griffith after a couple of starts for Kris Lees where she’s been an unplaced favourite on both occasions. Thought she was plain at Newcastle last time but change of scenery for her and worth one more chance. 1. Augusta In April gave in meekly at Muswellbrook after leading last start but if you forgive that his form has him right in the mix here. Back to a mile and drawn well he could bounce back to form and if that’s the case he’s a contender.
How to play it: Sass’n’twinkle E/W ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Sass’n’twinkle runs third in a Class 1 at Narromine on April 22
|Race 5 - 3:00PM LIFELINE HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
4. Jackknife only has to hold his form to take plenty of beating. While his strike rate could be better he was impressive when well supported at Wellington then was only nabbed in the last few strides in a Class 4 at Wyong. Down 4.5kg on his Wellington win and drawn to be wherever he wants to be in the run. Sure to be in the finish again.
Dangers: 8. Outta Space was a bit one paced at Narromine last start when vying for the lead early but form prior to that entitles him to another chance. Looked very good in wins at Tamworth and Wellington and is another that likes to be up there on the speed somewhere. Go well. 1. Good Host won the Country Championships Qualifier here three starts back but wasn’t up to it in the Final. Comes through the same Wyong race as Jackknife who meets him 2kg better for being him home comfortably. Obviously if he finds his Qualifier form he has to be a big chance. 11. Darpra was outclassed at Newcastle but bounced back with a fast finishing second over this course a bit over a week ago and that has her on the radar as an each-way chance. Will get back in the field but if they are running on she’ll be chiming in too.
How to play it: Jackknife E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Jackknife goes down fighting at Wyong on April 19
|Race 6 - 3:44PM HALT BENCHMARK 55 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Ignore the Randwick failure of 7. Torio’s Delight when always well back in a fast run Highway and he’s a big chance to post career win number three. Should have finished a bit closer in a similar race at Scone two starts back when Greg Ryan rode and he’s back on board here. He will need a touch of luck but has proven versatile so he’s at least a good each-way chance if not a bit better.
Dangers: 1. Social Pirate is up 2kg for an even effort in third at Nowra last tiume out. He’s a horse that has been racing well enough without winning with his best effort this time in a close third at Bathurst four starts back under Greg Ryan. Has his chance again. 2. Quietly Confident jumped right out of the ground second-up at Narromine running third after turning at the tail. He was held up a bit trying to get through the pack and that probably cost him second place. Last win was at a mile so may be a run short of a win but must be included in the chances. 13. Solicitation has found one better in all three runs since a two month break and she’s been getting closer each time. No harder here than last time at Coonabarabran and she’s a winning chance.
How to play it: Torio’s Delight E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Torio’s Delight hits the line late to run second at Scone on April 9
|Race 7 - 4:18PM LIFELINE 13 11 14 HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
I can probably get this race down to four or five chances and I don’t see why 7. Art ‘N’ Ollie won’t be there when the post is looming. She led all the way first-up then put in a couple of ordinary ones before a much more fighting effort at Bathurst last start, going down in the final few strides. She’ll be up on the pace and if she can get a cheap section or two I’m sure she’ll take running down.
Dangers: 2. Joey’s Destiny has cost punters plenty this time in with four fourths, each as favourite, from as many runs. Led and didn’t give a whole lot at Narromine last time and maybe coming back in distance is what he is looking for. Has an inexperienced apprentice on board and carries 10kg of dead weight but he’ll be thereabouts. 8. Ricci Royal isn’t getting any younger but he’s lightly raced and usually performs well fresh. Wasn’t asked for a lot in his latest trial and he’s well worth including in the chances. 5. Duck In Dubai failed on a heavy track at Taree last time so that could be forgiven. Mixed form in three other runs this prep but if Greg Ryan can coax him back to form he’s capable of featuring. Not sure what to make of 1. Somebody second-up with 65.5kg on her back. That’s up 9.5kg on her first-up run in open company at Orange where she boxed on without looking a threat. It’ll be a big effort for her to win.
How to play it: Art ‘N’ Ollie E/W ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Art ‘N’ Ollie leads until the shadows at Bathurst on Anzac Day
|Race 8 - 4:52PM THE BLUE ELEPHANT HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
They say winning a maiden then winning next start is one of the harder things to do in racing but it does happen and it’ll probably happen here with 6. Reprimand who absolutely cantered in first-up over this course a bit over a week ago. Led there and scored untroubled. Has the gate to probably lead them again, or get the run of the race, and she’s incredibly hard to hold out.
Dangers: 7. Say Madam is also coming off a maiden win and she was a popular winner at Narromine a couple of weeks ago after racing handy throughout. Doesn’t have a great record at this track but arguably going better now. 1. El Vee Are was far from disgraced running on late when resuming here over this course and will strip fitter. Has won second-up, that was last time in, and from a slightly better draw might not concede such a start. 4. Squared won over this course three starts back but has been below par in her last couple. Each-way chance if she can regain the form from a few runs ago.
How to play it: Reprimand WIN ($1.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Reprimand leads throughout to win easily at Dubbo on April 27