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Neil Evans's Selections For Muswellbrook Races (Tuesday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Heavy 8 and rail out 3m from 1200m to 300m into a cut/away

Race 1 (12:45pm) HORSEPOWER MAIDEN HANDICAP (900M)

We open up with the maidens over the short course. Well bred 2YO filly 13. Asherla makes her debut for the leading provincial stable. Was put away after a trial at home before trialling again a few weeks back in dominant fashion. By Group 1 winner Astern who was unbeaten in soft ground, and senior metro rider is aboard.

Dangers: Improving 3YO 1. Greenheart has found the line nicely in two runs to start his career, and should appreciate the long home stretch here. Was scratched from Taree on Monday. Consistent mare 8. Enamour resumes off a tidy trial. Was only narrowly beaten here before going for a spell, and has a solid wet track record. was also preferred here to Taree. Keep safe debutant colt 4. The Night Train who won a lead-up trial, and also bred to get through the going.

How to play it: Asherla to win and box trifecta 1,4,8,13
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1280m):

Plenty of chances in this one again headed by talented 4YO Scone mare 1. Mother's Day who was only fair to the line resuming at home, but can come on lengths into her second-up run. First time in these conditions, but bred to handle it, and wider draw allows her to get to a preferred outside finishing position.

Dangers: Big watch on 3. Oakfield Prince who debuts off two nice trials from the inside barrier, and was preferred here to Taree on Monday. Randwick 3YO 6. Super Solar can improve at his second start.

How to play it: Mother's Day to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m):

Still with the maidens, and Newcastle mare 9. Fu Ni can strike third-up. Has worked home okay in two runs back, and gets senior country rider aboard this time. Untried in the heavy, but bred to plough through it.

Dangers: Improving 3YO filly and early favourite 13. Ita found the line well when stepping sharply in distance at Canberra. That was four weeks between runs at only her second start, and she is drawn to get a soft run from the inside gate. Wyong mare 10. Lasting Grace didn't have much luck when it counted second-up at Tuncurry, and suited on the bigger track, but not convinced about her in heavy ground. Keep safe 5YO mare 11. Miss Twenty Twenty who has had four mixed runs back from a spell, and will likely roll forward.

How to play it: Fu Ni to win and box exacta 9,10,13
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m):

It doesn't get much easier here, but keen on 4YO mare 10. Jazirat resuming over a middle distance. Has been fitted with two 1200m trials, and the trainer has removed the blinkers. Drawn to get to the outside, and has shown enough on rain-affected ground so far.

Dangers: Improving Scone 3YO 6. Still In Fashion has produced two solid efforts to start his career, although hasn't been overly strong at the finish as a clear-cut favourite. Gets the blinkers added, and has the benefit of a heavy track start, but not convinced stepping up to this trip. Improving 4YO 3. Right Bower is ready for this longer journey after three runs back. Rosehill 3YO 4. Baxter did his best work late on debut at Scone, and the longer trip should suit, but untested in the going; while include in exotics 4YO longshot mare 7. Chilli Chilli who showed improvement at Quirindi, and is hard fit.

How to play it: Jazirat to win and trifecta 6,10/3,4,6,10/3,4,6,7,10
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 5 CLASS 2 HCP (1750m):

Testing battle over this trip. Progressive Scone mare 5. Birdonawinningpost is the value. Landed a short-priced plunge when a dominant maiden winner at Dubbo two runs back before working home okay home on a Heavy 10 at home after doing it tough for much of the run.

Dangers: Rosehill 3YO 1. Sonic Tycoon was very impressive, destroying his opposition on debut at Hawkesbury over 1500m after trailing the speed. Has obvious ability, but goes from a firm track to heavily rain-affected which may be a risk given his better trials prior were in good ground. Another Scone-based mare 8. Ellia finished best to win her maiden here two runs back before working home to miss narrowly at Dubbo. Comes back in distance off a freshen-up, and while she faces a wet track for the first time, is bred to handle it. Looking for further now, and she's quite well treated at the weights. Mudgee 5YO 2. Will To Excel has been freshened up back in trip after some even runs at Highway and BM 64 level, although unproven in the ground.

How to play it: Birdonawinningpost to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 6 BM 66 HCP (1500m):

Open contest, with several hopes. Tough Gosford 6YO 4. Dashing 'N' Daring finished like a train first-up at Tuncurry despite a betting drift, although he doesn't want it too wet. Boasts an imposing 60 percent winning strike rate from five second-up starts.

Dangers: Improving 3YO 7. Go Gadget is ready for this longer trip after working home okay in his last couple, and was a dominant Class 1 winner here in heavy going three runs back. Smart 5YO mare 12. Lochita made up plenty of late ground first-up this grade on a Heavy 10 at Taree, but second-up form is a query, and may need one more run. Include in exotics both Scone 4YO 10. Brother Bassy, and 5YO 11. Larynx who have both performed on soft tracks.

How to play it: Dashing 'N' Daring to win and trifecta 4,7,12/4,7,12/4,7,10,11,12
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1280m):

Quality race for this grade. Hard to go past promising Scone 4YO 3. Frontline who steps up in journey after an exciting debut win in heavy ground when he surged home from well back. Extra trip looks a given, and carries 1kg less.

Dangers: The stable has a big opinion of Scone 3YO 5. Commando Hunt who powered home to win second-up on a Heavy 9 beating Still In Fashion who goes around earlier. Some concern, though, where he gets from the inside draw. Another 3YO on the rise 6. Solva swept home to win his maiden first-up at Orange, and carries 1kg less for this next level. Despite being unwanted in betting, 3YO filly 2. Crazy Train was strong to the line second-up at Goulburn. Gets winkers applied, although an obvious query in the ground. Expect a big run fresh from 4YO 4. Harley Fat Boy who likes rain-affected ground.

How to play it: Frontline to win and box exacta 3,5,6
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 CLASS 1 HCP (1280m):

Same grade and distance looks a shade more cut and dried. Progressive 3YO 3. Dynamic Impact put it all together fourth-up as a gelding careering away to thrash his maiden opposition at Goulburn. Significantly beat Giftgiver who was then a dominant winner in wet ground at Nowra last Thursday. Hit the line okay in his only previous run on heavy ground.

Dangers: Honest 6YO mare 9. Oakfield Romance has only one win from 24 starts, but placed a further 14 times, and was brave chasing home a smart galloper at Taree in a Class 2 on heavy ground. By prolific wet track sire Hinchinbrook. Improving 3YO 1. Land Of Valens is a threat third-up after sticking on okay behind a smart sprinter at Wyong; while big watch on resuming mare 2. Fire Dragon who looked sharp winning a soft track trial.

How to play it: Dynamic Impact to win and Oakfield Romance each way
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 9 CLASS 2 HCP (1000m):

Open sprint to finish. Very keen on smart 3YO colt 6. Rocketing By first-up of an impressive soft track trial win. Was heavily backed winning fresh last prep, and drawn to avoid any traffic problems.

Dangers: Talented Newcastle filly 11. Snitzari looks ready to return off two progressive trials, and bred to handle the wet. Include Tamworth filly 12. Mischief Managed who charged late to beat a tough sprinter third-up at Gunnedah, and is proven on rain-affected ground. Hard to fathom why resuming 6YO 1. Eighth Immortal is such a big price after a nice trial at Hawkesbury finishing close-up under a strong hold. On debut for a new stable, and already a first-up winner.

How to play it: Rocketing By to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:

R7 3. FRONTLINE
R9 6. ROCKETING BY

BEST VALUE:

R5 5. BIRDONAWINNINGPOST

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