By Neil Evans
Track improving to Soft 6 and rail out 1m
|Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1400m):|
Scone filly 2. Lapseki can peak on an improving surface after getting home hard here in a similar quality maiden. Draws to get a nice run with cover off the speed
Dangers: Tough filly 3. My Khaleesi produced a huge run making up a stack of ground from a mile back at Dubbo. Again will be forced well back from the draw, with a significant jockey change, and wetter the better. Improving filly 4. Sure Strategy only has a plain record, but finished well right behind the top selection in that maiden 11 days ago; while 13. Stable Talk comes through that same formline just out of the placings, but draws off the track this time.
How to play it: Lapseki to win. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 2 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):|
Tactical battle over the same journey, with plenty of hopes. Muswellbrook filly 9. Sparky Girl has hit the line impressively in her last two against deeper opposition, and presents over the odds here. Form country rider gets back on, and she'll be tucked away with cover back in the field and saved for one last surge.
Dangers: Provincial filly 2. Syzygy Stars beat a good maiden field on debut before not having a lot of luck in a tougher metro BM 64. Much better off back in this grade on a somewhat firmer surface, although she will need to get across from the outside barrier. Big watch on ex-Qld four-year-old 6. Triangulum who has his first start for new Newcastle yard a month between runs, down in weight, and with blinkers coming off. Progressive filly 7. Tornado Light produced an upset win on debut driving home from well back before working home okay on a bog track. Looks okay at the weights, and firmer surface is a big plus.
How to play it: Sparky Girl each way and box trifecta 2,6,7,9. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 3 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1200m):|
Another wide open and tough affair for the maidens. Home track Outreach filly 7. Mooki Beauty can break through at her fourth start getting out to this trip at the right time. Draws to sit midfield with cover, and well treated after form rider's 2kg allowance.
Dangers: Expecting a big first-up run from provincial Kermadec filly 14. L'Esperance Rock who returns for just her third start off a smart trial win. Improving three-year-old 4. London Ruler stuck on okay after leading under a big weight, and has a nice little weight drop and change of rider for her third start. Local filly 13. Addison Reserve has to overcome the outside barrier, but resumes off two progressive trials, and gets in light after jockey's 3kg claim. Include in wider exotics lightly raced fillies 11. Velvet Star who draws the inside; and at big odds 1. Jappalouis on debut for the leading local stable with blinkers on.
How to play it: Mooki Beauty each way. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 4 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1600m):|
Good open contest for this grade. Provincial three-year-old 9. Vanbari is ready to win third-up dropping 4kg in weight and staying at the mile. Took over on the turn here 11 days ago before being run down late, and hits peak fitness now from a much softer draw.
Dangers: Progressive three-year-old 4. Theo Legion is well suited dropping back from the 2000m after being edged out in a tight finish at Taree. Had dominated from the front prior over this distance, and he'll take plenty of catching around this circuit. Local four-year-old 7. Manseneta is at his best around this trip when raced sparingly. Has been given four weeks since finishing close-up on a Heavy 10 here. Honest five-year-old 1. Toulon Brook surged late to win a similar race fourth-up, and will carry the same weight after the claim; while 11. Fu Ni is over the odds second-up out in trip.
How to play it: Vanbari to win. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):|
It doesn't get any easier here. Promising three-year-old 3. Polylithic was game on debut leading at Newcastle, and as long as he can get over from a wide gate, will take plenty of stopping.
Dangers: Must keep safe local four-year-old 2. Our Little Louie who draws the inside after motoring home late at Grafton to beat all bar the winner. Watch the betting on ex-Qld two-year-old 10. Ezekeil who resumes for the leading home track stable off a nice forward trial, and with a 3kg claim. Keep safe two-year-old Shalaa filly 13. Phule who debuts off two progressive trials for the top provincial yard.
How to play it: Polylithic to win. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):|
Stayinging at the sprint trip, and that suits local four-year-old 2. Trumped Up freshened after a barrier-to-box win here over 1200m six weeks back. Perennial place-getter before that, and drawn to advantage with a crucial 3kg allowance.
Dangers: Ex-SA filly 7. Who Runs The World is fresh for her first run in the new Scone stable, and first-up last prep attacked the line in a handy maiden at Morphettville. Include talented filly 8. Fox On The Rocks who resumes with blinkers added off a nice trial. Keep watch on 4. I Am Bolt who resumes with blinkers back on for an under-rated Inverell stable; while 9. Muscadelle is a knock-out hope at big odds fresh.
How to play it: Trumped Up each way and first four 2,7,8/2,4,7,8,9/2,4,7,8,9/2,4,7,8,9. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 7 CLASS 2 HCP (1200m):|
Deep race with plenty of chances. Keen on improving provincial filly 7. Tawfiq Lass second-up off a break from a nice gate. Worked home late when fresh behind a s a promising sprinter,and while there's more depth here, she has plenty of upside.
Dangers: Progressive three-year-old 5. Beau Factor steps up in grade after convincingly winning two of his last three. Lightly raced five-year-old 2. Melik will come on strong second-up with blinkers back on after resuming in a tougher Highway on a far more rain-affected track. Will need plenty of speed on, though, likely forced to go a long way back from a very wide draw. Included in exotics four-year-old mare 8. Beauty Betty third-up; and 11. Cracking Mo resuming behind two progressive trials, and with key gear changes.
How to play it: Tawfiq Lass to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
|Race 8 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1000m):|
Yet another wide open sprint to finish, with a stack of chances. Keen on four-year-old Scone mare 11. Tango Stepz resuming for a smart stable. Hasn't publicly trialled but comes to hand quickly and looks well treated under 55kg.
Dangers: Home track four-year-old 12. Rubic Honour has hit the line nicely in two runs back, and can peak here with key gear changes, and a significant drop in weight. Keep safe US-bred local five-year-old 9. Yulong Base who took on much tougher opposition last prep. Resumes off a lengthy break and two trials, drawing the inside gate. Provincial filly 8. Miss Kono was a dominant CL1 winner two runs back before failing in the heavy, but better served on a soft rating carrying 2kg less. Watch the betting on local seven-year-old 5. The Lion having his first run in more than a year, but looked sharp enough winning a recent trial; while both 6. Halcyon House and 7. Dreaming For More will be running home hard at good odds.
How to play it: Tango Stepz to win and box exacta 9,11,12. Odds and Evens: Split
R1 2. LAPSEKI
R4 9. VANBARI
R2 9. SPARKY GIRL