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Neil Evans' Tips For Grafton (Tuesday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Good 4 and rail True

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

Gold Coast filly 11. Miss Rinehart can pounce fourth-up after showing improvement in deeper maidens at home.

Dangers: Coffs five-year-old 2. Kentucky Grey was a long way from the winner resuming, but can improve sharply second-up from the inside gate; while including improving mare 3. Allusive Eve in exotics.

How to play it: Miss Rinehart to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m):

From the same stable and by the same sire as the first race, Qld filly 4. Selling Sunset can blitz this field first-up from the inside draw. Was spelled after a dominant two-year-old win in late May, and looks ready to pick up where she left off. Was strong through the line in a recent trial over the border.

Dangers: Watch the betting on 1. Star Magnum who resumes off a long break and handy trial for a new stable. Honest four-year-old 2. Schiller Bay will need to find a length or two from his third-up run, but did win his only previous run here when resuming.

How to play it: Selling Sunset to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1100m):

Not much between the top few here. Consistent Coffs four-year-old 2. Wild Wind is on the 10 day back-up after finishing close-up in the feature Lightning Bend at Bowraville when he paid the price on the tighter track for being sluggish to begin. Won a CL1 at this track three runs back leading all the way before only missing by a long head in a much deeper CL3. Races forward, and gets right back into the weights argument after the 3kg allowance.

Dangers: Improving mare 3. Freya's Clock will find this a shade easier than a fighting 2nd placing at Lismore, but also rises sharply in weight. Keep safe 4. Horowitz who resumes off two trials; while 7. Luff is over the odds from the handy draw after a brave effort behind a smart one three weeks ago.

How to play it: Wild Wind to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (2200m):

Now the staying test, and it's a moderate and tricky affair. Under-rated Coffs seven-year-old 1. Tiomo rarely runs a bad one, and comes through superior formlines for this. Charged home for a dominant CL3 win here three runs back before doing his best work late in much tougher Saturday Gold Coast company. Beats the handicapper after the 3kg claim, and just needs to find cover from the awkward gate to run over these.

Dangers: Honest five-year-old 2. Italian Tune will also appreciate a significant drop in class despite a 5kg weight rise. Keep safe last start all-the-way Bowraville winner 3. Star Quest who draws well with a nice drop in weight, but taking on some better ones; while improving mare 6. Yarrinup Flyer; and eight-year-old 11. Harry And The Duke; are best of the rest.

How to play it: Tiomo to win and quinella 1 and 2. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 CLASS 3 HCP (1175m):

Have to stick hard with talented four-year-old mare 1. Tara Jasmine who returns home where she's never been beaten in three starts. Finished powerfully to win here first-up in a CL2 before getting lost in traffic a mile back in a high rating Highway. Given 24 days between runs, and blinkers have been added. The one to beat.

Dangers: Doubt there are any if the top selection jumps clean, but 4. Don't Cry Mama is over the odds from the inside draw after finishing close-up in a similar race; while resuming mare 2. Oh Say; 3. Courageous fourth-up; and honest mare 5. Innervoice; are all worthy exotic players.

How to play it: Tara Jasmine to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 MAIDEN HCP (1400m):

Testing and open battle. Lightly raced three-year-old 5. Gobbled has been close-up in three runs since switching from Victoria, and peaks here over a little more ground.

Dangers: Hard to fathom why four-year-old 1. Gaslighter opened well into double figure odds after bungling the start on debut in a much deeper maiden at Doomben nearly seven weeks ago. Was solid enough in the market that day, and has since switched to a smart Coffs stable. Keep safe at longer odds improving mare 12. Oozes Class dropping in weight fifth-up.

How to play it: Gobbled to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):

Progressive Coffs four-year-old 1. Rapids was the hottest of favourites when resuming with a comfortable win in a weaker affair at Lismore. Former metro sprinter who looks well treated after form apprentice takes 3kg off, although jumping up 300m in a handy field may leave him a shade under the odds.

Dangers: Progressive four-year-old 2. Deliberation faded late jumping up to a handy CL2 after a dominant maiden win, and is better suited here. Don't dismiss 4. Wine O'Clock after a change of tactics to ride in front back-fired badly in a CL1 here only eight days ago. Previous form from off the speed was sound enough for a race like this.

How to play it: Rapids to win and quinella 1 and 2. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1700m):

Most open race of the day saved for last. Improving four-year-old mare 4. Above The Lot gets her chance settling closer from the inside draw third-up over a longer journey. Worked home well in her last couple, and is on the eight day back-up.

Dangers: Up until he landed way too far back last start, lightly raced five-year-old 1. Bold Contender hadn't missed a place in four runs, including a flashing maiden win here a month back. Reliable weight carrier, but will need to tuck in somewhere from a wide barrier. Keep safe five-year-olds, 7. Express Dragon and 5. Hayate who are both fifth-up over more ground.

How to play it: Above The Lot to win and box trifecta 1,4,5,7. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R2 4. SELLING SUNSET
R3 2. WILD WIND

BEST VALUE:
R8 4. ABOVE THE LOT

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's meeting at Grafton

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