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By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail true

4. Leica Model is terrific value in an open race dropping back to fillies and mares company after finished well in deeper grade first-up at Tamworth. Given three weeks between runs to suit her sparingly raced pattern, and she will relish the longer trip getting to the outside at the top of the straight. 6. So Rosie is an improver, and also over the odds third-up drawn to get cover. 1. Tara Jasmine is an ageing and now Qld-based mare who hasn’t won for a while, but showing signs of getting back to her good ability as a younger horse, charging home into a place at Gatton 19 days ago, and loves dry ground. 7. Yellowhammer has been finding the line all prep in deeper races, but overdue for a third career win. 3. Suzuki normally takes a run or two to hit her straps, but still a market watch resuming from the inside draw. 2. Decisive Lass third-up with a significant jockey change, and 8. Spirits Burn Deep hitting peak fitness fifth-up; both go in trifecta and and first four plays.

How to play it: Leica Model to win

3. Punch One Out is bursting to win again deep into the prep, and is well placed in a race lacking depth. Has been running home consistently, and loomed to win at Taree when just found one better late. Leading jockey takes over on a timely 2kg weight drop. 10. Dernier Lien is an emerging filly and the clear threat having by-passed Wednesday’s meeting to be saved for this. Gets in light after the 2kg claim, drawn low and reloads behind a first-up maiden win after being heavily backed from $2.15 into $1.85. Be surprised if the winner comes from outside those two, but 2. Give Me Joy despite drawing the outside barrier is progressive enough getting over more ground; while 4. Monarch Express is over the odds fourth-up after an even effort in the Guineas Prelude. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Punch One Out to win

3. What A Gent is a lightly raced provincial-based three-year-old who can strike first-up in just his second campaign. Given plenty of time after three fair closing efforts in better maidens late last year, and has looked strong in two progressive trials, winning the latest on the Beaumont track. Bred to get further, and leading jockey sticks solid from that trial. 2. Master Artist is lightly raced and right in the contest after a solid closing run first-up, with a senior NSW country hoop taking over. 12. Ol’ Mate Coop is clear next best second-up from a lovely trailing draw. Big gap to the rest headed by 10. Totally Underrated who also draws to get a soft run.

How to play it: What A Gent to win

3. Herman Said, a well bred gelding by Exceedance with the Kris Lees yard at Newcastle, is poised to claim the battle of the two-year-olds. Impressed with a dominant debut win at Scone as a hot favourite 24 days ago, and drawn to get cover inside. 1. Albany Road is also drawn to find cover, and right in the hunt third-up in his first full prep for a leading Sydney stable. 12. Steffi Electrica is a Gold Coast filly coming off a dominant third-up maiden win at this track when running a slick final 600m. 2. Exoflow is promising and ran them off their feet here first-up only 11 days ago, but taking on some smarter ones this time. 5. Lord Of Flames, a colt by Dracarys on debut for the Matthew Dunn stable behind two trials, and 7. Come On Glamour second-up; can both run into the minor money at goods odds.

How to play it: Herman Said to win

5. Enterprise Legend is a tough sprinter, and shapes nicely to go back-to-back second-up rising in grade. Dominated from barrier to box in a BM 58 when fresh, running good time, and again drawn to roll forward and dictate over the same trip. 3. Port Erin is another Qld visitor preferred here to a Class 2 at Wednesday’s meeting. Very fit and drops in grade after closing off well in some tougher races over the border. 1. Tryanza is a betting watch 11 days after an all-the-way first-up win in CL3 company here. 10. Boambee Beach is over the odds from a low draw deep into her prep having run home well to finish under a length from the former.

How to play it: Enterprise Legend to win

4. Bravely is a progressive four-year-old who can make it three wins from five this prep, and lead in a Dunn stable domination. Swept home to win BM 66 at home three weeks back, and gets a 4.5kg weight drop after the claim. Stablemate 13. Godfather comes back to a very winnable race after doing his best work late in a deeper affair at Eagle Farm second-up. Naturally up in weight, and won’t want to get too far back on this shorter run home. 5. Emperor is the thrid of the Dunn-trained chances, very genuine and finished best to claim a BM 70 at Doomben last start. 6. Power Beau is a mile over the odds fresh and a worthy inclusion in wider exotics; while 7. Volcanic Love down in grade can run in to the minor money at big odds.

How to play it: Bravely to win

5. Bear On The Loose is a tough on-speed five-year-old well placed to claim the feature Cup for the visiting Waterhouse-Bott stable. Was only edged out late in consecutive Saturday affairs up to Listed level before heading north and ran home okay behind a dominant winner in the Listed Caloundra Cup 12 days ago. Hard fit, and looks well treated at the weights. 1. Belvedere Boys has a stack of quality, with a 40 percent winning strike rate from 16 starts. Ready to peak third-up after hitting the line late to miss by a nose in the Listed feature at Rosehill 20 days ago, just needs to slot in from the tricky barrier to be in the finish. 3. Glory Daze is a sparingly raced import who struck on well into a place in that same metro race as the former when coming off a four week freshen. Drawn to get a cosy run on speed. 7. Quietness, an imported mare, has produced two eye-catching runs to open her Australian campaign, and looking for this longer trip now. 9. Don Diego De Vega is an each-way chance having been luckless in his last two, held up at a crucial time in the Winter Cup at Randwick and then copping a torrid run in the Caloundra Cup. Well in on 54kg and can give a sight. 2. Touristic also coming through the McKell Cup formline, and a Listed winner at Rosehill three starts back, can sneak into the minor money.

How to play it: Bear On The Loose to win

3. Burning Bell is a smart and sparingly raced Gold Coast mare who looms as the one to beat resuming off two forward trials. Comes to hand quickly and drawn to get a lovely trail. Bolted in her only previous start at this track. 4. Outishka is another sharp performer first-up, resuming with blinkers going on. Has won seven from 20, three times over this distance, and trialled strongly behind Chidiac who then came out and won a CL3 at Scone first-up by more than four lengths. 8. Bomarea is a big market watch fresh off a dominant trial win. 6. Mabel is a talented mare coming off a tidy closing run first-up in BM 78 metro company; while 7. Bring Me Kash reloading off a nine week break is the best of the rest.

How to play it: Burning Bell to win

BEST BETS:
R4 3. HERMAN SAID
R8 3. BURNING BELL

BEST VALUE:
R2 3. PUNCH ONE OUT

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Grafton Cup meeting