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Neil Evans' Tips For Dubbo (Friday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Heavy 9/10 and rail out 3m from 900m to 400m and True the remainder

Race 1 3YO & UP MAIDEN HCP (1000m):

A strong and very open rain-hit meeting starts with the maiden sprinters, with a few key ones on debut. Loved the way local three-year-old 1. Beau Factor picked up and found the line resuming after being under pressure on the turn. Back on home track, and bred to handle the ground.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by Scone filly 7. Velvet Star who gets blinkers on and a crucial 3kg claim at her third start. Improving filly 8. Mighty Minnie has a fitness edge and placed in her last couple; while included in exotics 11. Padrone who can improve with a significant jockey change, and a soft draw.

How to play it: Beau Factor to win. Odds and Evens: Odds


Beau Factor runs fourth at Wellington on May 30

Race 2 SILVER GOBLET - 2YO HCP (1100m):

The way Scone gelding 1. Limited Reality destroyed his rivals on debut at Gunnedah suggests he only has to get through the ground to win again. Draws well, with a strong rider on top, and only concern seemingly the sire was a pure firm tracker.

Dangers: Home track filly 7. Watch Me Rumble was an impressive trial winner, although a query on debut in these conditions.

How to play it: Limited Reality to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 3 OPEN HCP (1000m):

Good strong sprint, with a few chances. Little doubt Scone four-year-old 5. Golden Avenger is the most progressive and best weighted runner in the race dropping a hefty 6.5kg from a dominant BM 66 win here second-up. That said, not totally convinced about him on a very heavy track and being drawn inside, so wouldn't be charging into any short price.

Dangers: Tough six-year-old 2. Another Sin hasn't run on in his last couple, but this is easier and the blinkers come off. Yet another Scone visitor 3. Bryan's Babe was a strong finishing BM 88 winner three runs back, and deep into the prep can thrive in ground she enjoys.

How to play it: Golden Avenger to win and box trifecta 2,3,5. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1300m):

Intriguing tussle this one, with most unproven in this sort of going. Scone filly 11. Lapseki will go around at a big price, but she can hit a peak fourth-up back in distance and 25 days between runs. Will settle well back behind a solid tempo, and doubt anything will be stronger on the line.

Dangers: Keep safe consistent 6. Saint Kitts who has fought on well in his last couple, and bred to handle it; while both 8. Are You Certain and 13. Silverdeel can be included in exotics.

How to play it: Lapseki each way. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1300m):

The first of the Winter Country Classic qualifiers for the girls, and hotting up with excitement about home track four-year-old 8. Wishfilly making it three straight at big odds. Has taken control of her last two in dominant fashion, and weight increase off-set by a good 2kg-claiming pilot. Thrives on rain-affected ground.

Dangers: Improving five-year-old 5. Boom Queen is looking for this trip, and backs up quickly after chasing home a smart one here. Local five-year-old 2. Dusky Damsel gets out to a more suitable distance, with a 3kg claim to off-set the weight; while included in exotics at bigger odds 12. Rubel third-up off a nine week freshen-up.

How to play it: Wishfilly to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1300m):

Now the boys' edition, and in another wide market, under-rated five-year-old 6. Spilia can land a long overdue third career win. Has had little or no favours getting home late in his last two, and made up plenty of ground on Wishfilly here two runs back so watch for that form reference to hold up.

Dangers: Scone five-year-old 7. Nowyunomi is hunting a second career win at good odds. Has hit the line to miss narrowly in his last two, although still to be proven in ground this heavy. Tough local six-year-old 5. Skullerharderson has been finding the line hard before being given an easy kill in a weak Picnic race. Won his only previous start in heavy going, and rarely runs a bad one. Home track four-year-old 2. Blackadder has beaten all but the winner in two of his last three, but a risk in this ground under the weight.

How to play it: Spilia each way and box exacta 5,6,7. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m):

Two runners will likely fight for favouritism in the Dubbo Dash, and it's local four-year-old 2. Castlebar Road who is the one to beat. Came off a four-week break to trounce the opposition here in heavy ground producing superior acceleration from the 300m. This isn't much stronger, and can go right on with it.

Dangers: Progressive five-year-old 1. Fifteen Rounds charged home from a mile back second-up in a handy Class 1, and has the best finishing burst in the race. Only one win from 18, but placed a further seven times, although a concern in the ground given he's never raced on heavy and placed only once from 10 in soft going.

How to play it: Castlebar Road to win. Odds and Evens: Split


Castlebar Road wins at Dubbo on June 4

Race 8 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1600m):

Competitive mile to finish, with a stack of chances. Talented mare 2. Wild Rocket was strong late in the Gunnedah Cup, and is hard fit deep into the prep. Up sharply in weight, but all his best form is on rain-affected going, and she will relish getting back on a much bigger track.

Dangers: Progressive three-year-old 7. Beckford steps up from a flashing second-up BM 58 win. Honest 5. Slatey Bay loomed up and looked home in a weaker race here seven days ago, and while this is a significant step up in quality, the wetter the better. Improving four-year-old 3. Eiger also comes through a fair closing effort in the Gunnedah Cup. Much stronger rider goes on here, although a real query getting back from a low draw in these conditions. Keep safe five-year-old 12. Magic Charlee who went to Randwick last start after a dominant BM 58 win, and did his best work late in a good quality Highway.

How to play it: Wild Rocket to win. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R1 1. BEAU FACTOR
R7 2. CASTLEBAR ROAD

BEST VALUE:
R4 11. LAPSEKI

All the fields, form and replays for Friday's meeting at Dubbo

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