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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Tuesday's $3 million Big Dance (1600m) at Royal Randwick.

1. Gringotts (Ciaron Maher): Last year’s winner and he’s added the Gong and the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes, beating the likes of Fangirl and Ceolwulf, to his record in the past 12 months. And first-up he started $5.50 in the Winx Stakes so he well placed back in this company. Fair to say things haven’t panned out as the stable might have hoped since that first-up run as he didn’t reappear until the Alan Brown three weeks ago where he hit the front and was run down by Headley Grange. He has to be fitter for that, he gets a handy weight swing and draws to have control of his destiny. He’s easy to find but he’s the horse to beat.

Headley Grange (Pic: Bradley Photos).

2. Headley Grange (Joe Pride): It’s hard to fault a horse that’s won five of his past six starts and he just keeps raising the bar each time. He drew the outside in the Alan Brown in a 17 horse field and it was a super ride from Adam Hyeronimus to give him a run that enabled him to be strong at the finish. At that he was. Faced with another wide gate but they aren’t so much a big deal at the Randwick mile. What could be is the rise to 61kg. He was asked to carry 62kg in the South Grafton Cup which was won by Boys Night Out who is an $81 chance in this race. Given what he’s done since then though he’s hard to fault.

3. Tavi Time (Kris Lees): Beaten as favourite in this race a year ago where he had 53kg and ran fourth. He won the Scone Cup back in May to get himself qualified again and you’d have to say his two lead up runs have been better than pass marks both behind Headley Grange. He’s better off at the weights against both those runs, relishes the mile and is rarely far away. He’ll be competitive, he’s drawn to get the right sort of run and you know he’ll be thereabouts.

4. Vivy Air (Ciaron Maher): Runner-up in this race a year ago and she posted her first win in quite some time when taking out the Wild Card on Everest Day. In that race she made a dash for home early in the straight and kept going to hold off Swiftfalcon for that deserved win. She doesn’t have the barrier advantage over the top weight she had last year but you’d have to say she’s going at least as well if not better given she’s coming off a rare win and she is getting 7.5kg off him too. She’ll run a good race again and is an each-way hope.

5. Les Vampires (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Probably a little better known once he gets out beyond a mile but he did show second-up that he’s heading the right way this campaign. He stuck on well behind Transatlantic in the Five Diamonds Prelude and now he’s up to the mile it’d be no surprise to see him ridden more aggressively to be put on the speed. Won the Gosford Cup at 2100m earlier this year so he can stay on and he’d be another each-way chance.

6. Ruby Flyer (Brad Widdup): If the track is a little on the testing side he could well be the dark horse as he absolutely loves it when it rains. Won the Goulburn Cup on a heavy track but didn’t fire on a couple of firm ones in his next two. It was still a good track last time but he showed plenty of purpose in running a close second over this track and distance. There’s no way it’ll be firm ground for this race which makes him way over the odds if he decided to put his best foot forward. Have to throw him in trifectas.

7. Lavish Empire (Peter Snowden): He’s a bit on the hit and miss side but a bit of give in the ground is a boost for his chances. Won the Muswellbrook Cup in March so has been set for this race third-up and it was a promising return over 1200m in September where he ran second to Disneck. Never a factor second-up on Everest Day, getting a long way back. His second-up form, however, is questionable so he could bounce off that and if he does then he’d be one looking to ambush them late. Given he’s a shade unreliable you’d still take him on trust to perform.

8. Lugh (Ciaron Maher): Lightly raced with just eight starts under his belt for five wins and he’s another who would benefit greatly from a rain affected track. He’s fresh out of benchmark company though having taken out the Tuncurry Cup on a heavy surface in mid-September. He’s fresh for this and gets in with a light weight which will help his cause. Meets some very smart ones here and has drawn near the outside so will need some luck, but if that wet track happens he could be there.

9. Flywheel (SCRATCHED).

10. Matusalem (Chris Waller): He’s an interesting runner if the track holds up and there’s no overnight rain. He’s had two runs back since he won the Albury Cup and placed in the Wagga Cup, both at 2000m, and safe to say his fresh effort was a screamer. Huge forgive run behind Perfumist in a fast run mile a month ago where he made some ground late from the back, which wasn’t easy to do. Has a poor Randwick record but he’ll run better than last time if the conditions are in his favour.

11. Cristal Clear (Annabel & Rob Arcihbald): Ran out of his skin in the Golden Eagle on Saturday to finish sixth behind a superstar. If he can produce a similar sort of effort here on the back up then he’s in the game. Popular winner of the Dubbo Cup three starts ago and you’d have to say a shade disappointing when run down at Warwick Farm. Right back down in the weights, any ground is fine for him and it all comes down to how he bounces through the weekend. Can see him placing if he’s feeling good for another test.

12. Lord Of Biscay (Kris Lees): Honest import who looked set for a big campaign targeted at this race with his first-up run but the wheels fell off when he failed as a heavily backed favourite a month later at Rosehill. Much better effort on Everest Day, when again well supported, running third under 60kg so he’s going to relish the nice weight drop. It comes down to whether he’s good enough, he ran well through the Provincial-Midway series running second in the Final and this is obviously a bit harder. Still, he gets his chance to run a cheeky race.

13. Time Quest (Matthew Smith): Recorded his second Coffs Harbour Cup win back in August to qualify and the form around his two runs since then is pretty handy. Not far from Fully Lit over this course two runs back then comes through that very fast run mile won by Perfumist on Epsom Day where he kept coming into third with his stablemate Idle Flyer ahead of him. Failed in this race last year but he does look to be going a lot better, handles all ground fine and there are worse 20/1 chances than him in the race.

Ruby Flyer (Pic: Bradley Photos).

14. Cranky Harry (Matthew Dunn): Finished midfield as a $41 chance in this race last year and he’s won his way back with his second Murwillumbah Cup win. Unfortunately his form this year has been on the mixed side as he’s not coming through the grades any more and his lead up run to this race seems a couple of rungs below last year too. That was a fourth in the Lismore Cup. On his best form he can finish top half.

15. Boys Night Out (Matthew Dunn): Beat Vivy Air to win the South Grafton Cup and behind him in that race was Headley Grange! Only had the one run since then for a midfield finish in a Listed race at Eagle Farm a month ago and a tickover trial. The pluses for him are the light weight and that he handles all ground. The big negative is the wide gate and where he can get to from out there given he generally likes to be in a somewhat prominent spot. It makes it hard.

16. Justadeel (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): Not sure where this lightly raced gelding fits in but he does have a win over Rise At Dawn, albeit a year ago, in his handy record. Well placed to win the Coonamble Cup to get into this race and the form out of it has held up pretty well with a couple of the unplaced brigade coming back to Sydney to win. Carries a light weight and barrier one is something he can make some use of. Would be concerned if the track is seriously wet but otherwise he's an each-way chance.

17. Super Helpful (Barbara Joseph, Paul & Matt Jones): Ran third in this race two years ago, his only placing in 14 runs at Randwick, so on his best form he’s up to being somewhat competitive. Recent efforts have been sound, placed behind Sun God and Cristal Clear two back then as warming up okay at the end of the mile behind Fortune. The barrier is a bit of a killer for him, but if they are swooping from the back it’d bring him into it to a degree especially if it’s wet. His price is a bit offensive but he’ll need things to go in his favour.

18. Aix En Provence (Nacim Dilmi): Honest performer who has strung two wins together out of town including the Bathurst Cup which saw him find his way into this race. He’ll try his luck from the wide gate and roll forward to a degree, a wet track would be a major plus for him but this is a lot stronger than he’s met at any stage of his career.

19. Hot Bandit (Luke Pepper): Won the Narrandera Cup back in July and his form since then has been on the fair side with his best effort a third at Canberra just under two weeks ago. To be fair he’s up against it in this field and his best hopes would be if the track became heavy as he seems to relish those conditions.

20. Louie’s Legacy (Barbara Joseph, Paul & Matt Jones): Consistent type who placed in the Narrandera Cup before winning the Forbes Cup back in the winter. Ran well fresh at a trip short of his best at Moruya before a more than handy fourth at Warwick Farm. He loves the mile, he’s on the limit and if it’s a very wet track he’d love that too. But realistically a midfield finish would be a good result.

21. Direct Fire (Theresa Bateup): Honest on pacer who gave a good account up on speed in a much weaker race at Kembla Grange just over a week ago. The outside barrier is the least of his concerns as he will go forward anyway. He'll find this a bit above his pay grade.

SPEED MAP: A big field will generate some tempo but we’re not dealing with high speed. Les Vampires has the chances to be ridden on top of the pace with Cristal Clear and Lugh coming over from wider out. Gringotts and Justadeel can land in stalking positions. From there it could come down to initiative. Headley Grange will need to slot in somewhere and it could be three wide with the likes of Tavi Time and Lord Of Biscay potentially kicking up to hold spots better than midfield.

SELECTIONS:
1 GRINGOTTS
2 Headley Grange
6 Ruby Flyer
3 Tavi Time

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Big Dance meeting at Randwick