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By Ray Hickson

An in depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $1 million Winx Stakes (1400m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. Light Infantry Man (Ciaron Maher): Dual Group 1 winner resuming and has been kept out of the limelight with his trials being at Gosford. And they’ve been fine. He’s been at his most brilliant on good tracks but at the same time that’s all he’s seen in his time in Australia. Looking for a wet track guide, you have to go right back to his second race start where he won a Group 3 race at Newbury on a track rated soft and 'heavy in places’. But that’s four years ago. He also has a few soft track placings in France. If he is a genuine wet tracker he could be entertained.

2. Ceolwulf (Joe Pride): A lot was expected of him in the autumn after his two big Group 1 wins over the Randwick mile last spring. He didn’t run badly in any of his five starts, including a heavy track win in the Neville Sellwood with 59.5kg. His only other heavy track run was at Randwick in the Australian Derby last year where he was a close second to Riff Rocket. So his wet track credentials are there. He’s trialling well as he usually does and the only thing to dent the confidence is his stats when first-up. But a couple of those were when still a colt. Capable of winning no doubt.

Ceolwulf (Bradley Photos)

3. Gringotts (Ciaron Maher): There’s no heavy track exposure in his 21 starts to date but aside from that he ticks plenty of boxes. Continued his rapid rise in the autumn, having won the Big Dance and The Gong last spring, when he beat Fangirl and Ceolwulf in the George Ryder. His run in the Doncaster after that was solid enough. He’s had the two trials including one on a heavy 8 and he arguably should have won his past two first-up attempts, he’s won five races at 1400m and has a racing style that should see him in front of his major rivals. That could be his ace.

4. Arapaho (Bjorn Baker): Sydney Cup winner resuming and by rights should find this way too short for him. That said he showed some cheeky in the Apollo on a good track when fresh last preparation and he is quite comfortable on heavy ground generally. You could see him finishing around midfield without surprising and that would be an acceptable start to another campaign.

5. Lindermann (Chris Waller): He’s a crucial part of the speed picture in this race and with the outside barrier he’ll be crossing them and looking to lead or if something kicks up to sit up handy. Unfortunately he’s generally not regarded as a heavy track horse and he did struggle in quite testing ground at the Gold Coast a month after running fourth in the Queen Elizabeth on a good track. He’s also rarely in the frame first-up. Can give some cheek but there’s a chance the wheels spin when the pressure goes on.

6. Robusto (Bjorn Baker): Tough customer who brings some race fitness into the event that might offset some doubts over him on a heavy track. But he’s actually only raced on it once and ran fourth beaten 1.7 lengths in a Group 3 as a three-year-old which is hardly a failure. Obviously this is a step up from the Winter Stakes, where he was huge, and his win in the Winter Challenge but sometimes fitness comes into play and if he finds a spot in the first half he’d be some chance of putting himself in the finish, more likely the minor end of it.

7. War Eternal (Bjorn Baker): We’ll find out whether he has his first Group 1 attempt in four years or heads to Sunday’s Goulburn Cup in due course but he is coming off a popular win last weekend over the same trip on a heavy track. He only carried 54kg there so he’s not at all suited under weight-for-age conditions but is another with that hard fitness on his side. All things being equal this should be too tough for him but he is at the top of his game in conditions he likes.

8. Diamond Diesel (Adam Duggan): He was beaten 2.6 lengths by War Eternal last week and while he did make some good ground from well off the pace this should also be beyond him. On the plus side he is very much the heavy tracker, with his last win coming in the Civic Stakes a year ago and this is quite the test to try and break that run out of outs. But you don’t earn prizemoney sitting in your box and he only has to beat one or two home to earn some.

9. Via Sistina (Chris Waller): Will she handle it or won’t she? It’s been the subject of some debate since the heavens opened earlier in the week and a heavy track became the reality. We all know how good she is, soon to be announced Horse Of The Year (you’d think) and a multiple Group 1 winner. The best horse in the country. She did win this race last year on a good track and ran third in the autumn equivalent, the Apollo Stakes, earlier this year on a good track. In Australia her heavy track exposure is limited to one run, last spring’s Makybe Diva Stakes, and we all know what they say about forgiving one run. She has some good European soft track form but the Randwick heavy can be a different beast. Best horse, yes, but if she’s vulnerable it’s under these circumstances.

Fangirl (Pic: Bradley Photos).

10. Fangirl (Chris Waller): There’s only one chink in this top class mare’s armour and that’s a heavy track. Strangely, though, in her five starts on a heavy track only one would be considered a failure and she was spelled straight after. She’s run fifth on a heavy 10 in a Surround, fourth in a Phar Lap, and sixth and seventh in an Epsom and Doncaster on heavy tracks. So that says she won’t disgrace herself first-up in the race she won two years ago but it means she’s unlikely to be as effective as usual. And if she’s not as effective it’s going to be hard for her to win. Not saying she can’t, she’s too good to be saying that, but it’ll be a big ask.

11. Full Count Felicia (Chris Waller): We’ve only seen her once in Australia and she led them up in a Ranvet and boxed on for a safely held fourth behind Via Sistina on good ground. She’s not raced on anything other than good or firm ground in her career so she’s tough to get a hold of as far as a heavy 10 is concerned. You’d imagine with gate 11 and Hippo on board she’ll be going forward but her trials have seen her ridden off the pace a bit. Very hard to work her out.

12. Aeliana (Chris Waller): Touted as potentially a star of the future, it’ll be interesting to see how the runaway Australian Derby winner returns on a heavy track. She ran well all through the preparation against the boys in the autumn and that probably stands her in good stead to make the transition to weight-for-age. Her maiden win was on a soft 7 but that’s probably not a guide, the query is the heavy 10 but it would surprise nobody if she’s right there at the business end.

SPEED MAP: The most likely scenario is that Lindermann and Full Count Felicia press forward from the outside and decide who wants to lead. Can see Gringotts making use of being drawn inside them and putting himself up there somewhere. Ceolwulf has the capacity to do that if desired as well, and Robusto would want to be in front of most of the field too. So a lot of the pace comes from out wide. This could put Via Sistina in a tricky spot unless she digs up to hold say three back the fence.

SELECTIONS:
3 GRINGOTTS
2 Ceolwulf
9 Via Sistina
12 Aeliana

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Randwick meeting