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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Saturday's Group 1 $20 million TAB Everest (1200m) at Royal Randwick.

1. Ka Ying Rising (David Hayes): You wouldn’t think it’d be hard to assess a horse with 14 wins from 16 starts and 13 in a row. But they’re all in Hong Kong in a controlled environment on tracks that seems to always run fast and 15 of his 16 starts have been at 1200m. He’s rated the world’s best sprinter with that record which includes four Group 1 wins. There’s no doubting he’s a very good horse but what has he been beating? He beat the same horse, Tex Mex, five starts in a row and both Satono Reve and Lucky Sweynesse have been beaten internationally since then. Then we have his Randwick barrier trial. The trial itself was fine though admittedly thought he’d win it and comfortably. The bigger concern was how worked up he was prior and how disappointed Zac Purton was given he said he was at his top. He’s had more time to trim up and David Hayes has said there are no excuses. If he is the world’s best sprinter then he probably wins, but for yours truly there’s enough doubt to suggest he will need to be.

Ka Ying Rising. (Pic: Hong Kong Jockey Club).

2. Briasa (Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes): Everything has gone right for the grey in the build up to the Everest so from a build up perspective he should be here at his peak. He was run down fair and square by Joliestar at 1100m then in the Premiere he sprinted nicely to hit the lead and held Jimmysstar at bay. In both those races he’s drawn ideally, in four and two, while on grand final day he’s come up with 10. Early decisions in what will likely be a strongly run 1200m will make or break his chances. He has form around most of the main local hopes so there’s a good case that he can be in the finish.

3. Overpass (Bjorn Baker): Warhorse who has contested this race twice with a sixth in 2022 his best result. The difference, just like last year when he won the Sydney Stakes, is that he’ll be first-up and more often than not he produces a big performance under that circumstance. The aforementioned Sydney Stakes win where he ran faster time than the Everest and in the autumn where he was softened right up and he was only nabbed late by Briasa in the TJ Smith Stakes. In the latter he started $5 against Briasa’s $6.50! For him to be a $51 chance is a little offensive but of all 12 horses he was hurt just about the most by the barrier draw. If he can get up near the lead without much trouble he could give a sight, if he has to work it’ll be all too hard.

4. Jimmysstar (Ciaron Maher): Can’t remember the last time he didn’t run a screamer at the top level and he’s really established himself as a top class sprinter this year. Won the Oakleigh Plate, should have won the William Reid, huge from an impossible position in the TJ Smith, won the All Aged, then this spring he had everything against him and was beaten 1.7 in the Concorde then showed his readiness running smart sectionals running into second in the Premiere, half a length from Briasa, after dragging back. Doubt there’ll be a lot of dragging right back this time, his former stablemate won this race last year sitting wide and he’s had the kind of prep to suggest he could do that too. Naturally if he gets a strung out field and can slot in somewhere it’d be ideal. He’s ready to put in the best performance of his life and that should make him hard to beat.

5. War Machine (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): Four starts for Lindsay Park for four wins including a Stradbroke, a race which has produced the past two Everest winners. It’s clear he’s gone up a notch or two since we saw him in Sydney this time last year where he ran third in the Silver Eagle and eighth in the Golden Eagle. A precursor for what’s happened since, perhaps. He’s a winner as far as the barrier draw goes, he can settle off the pace comfortably and his demolition first-up in the Gilgai two weeks ago is proof enough that he’s still on the rise. Biggest test obviously at weight-for-age now but he’s hard to fault as he has that similar profile to other recent winners. Far from a surprise if he’s there at the business end.

6. Mazu (Joe Pride): A third Everest for this gelding, one who has burnt up the tracks in front in his two Sydney runs this spring. He did fill the minor placing in 2022 Everest behind Giga Kick but he would need the storm predicted on Friday to contain a significant amount to bring him into the game. From barrier two he’ll find the front first, given how fast he’s gone early in the Shorts and Premiere, and then we’ll see if the foot goes down or he’s a little more controlled. It wouldn’t shock to see him hold on for a place if there’s a failure or two in some of the big guns but he’s one from 19 on a good track and that was four years ago.

7. Jedibeel (Brad Widdup): He’s been on the back foot to a degree since he had to miss the Concorde. Needed it in the Shorts then ran a significantly better race in the Premiere where she should have run a clear third without a lot of doubt. Found himself behind the wrong horse at a vital stage and by the time he got to the outside it was too late, but he showed plenty of purpose and you’d imagine he’ll be fitter. He’ll relish the speed being on and that will give him a chance to run to his best. To be fair, though, he’ll need to run out of his skin to win as he’s a handy horse but this is next level.

8. Angel Capital (Chris Waller): This is one horse that’s a bit hard to work out, undoubtedly very promising but this is worlds above anything he’s met to date. In his first run for the stable he beat Compelling Truth, who is third favourite for the country only The Kosciuszko, at Moonee Valley albeit in very easy style. He likely should have won the Sir Rupert Clarke a month ago, when a short priced favourite, as he pulled sharp ground off the winner when he finally got out in the shadows of the post. On face value 53.5kg in a 1400m handicap to 58.5kg at weight-for-age in an Everest should be too big a leap. But he does have that flair about him and he’ll be another who wants a fast run race to give him his best chance.

Joliestar (Pic: Bradley Photos)

9. Joliestar (Chris Waller): The lone wolf from last year’s Everest to return in 2025 and she ran seventh without having the best of luck a year ago. You’d have to say she’s a better horse now and that comes from the stable working out how she needs to be treated in her races. She’s won three of her last five and they’ve all been huge performances, particularly her first-up win in The Shorts where she shot past Briasa like he was tied to the fence. It’ll be interesting to see where she lands from a much more favourable draw and if she travels easily in the run should she settle that bit closer. If the Joliestar that won The Shorts, or the Newmarket earlier this year, turns up then she’s going to take some stopping.

10. Lady Shenandoah (Chris Waller): After her slashing, and quite unlucky, first-up second in the Concorde she was labelled by David Hayes as the horse that worried him the most as a danger to Ka Ying Rising. Three weeks after that race she was beaten into fourth in the Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley in a run that has to be forgiven. First run at the track, she was shunted off the course at one point yet she still ran some quick sectionals late. Back home, she’s won three of four at Randwick and she’s drawn midfield which allows her to make some use of it and land off the speed. Surprising that one defeat, and it wasn’t a bad run, has seen her lose so much favour. Major chance as she’s more than likely to run to her best.

11. Magic Time (Grahame Begg): For a Victorian trained mare she certainly loves Sydney with 12 of her 22 starts coming north of the border. And her Randwick record is excellent too. Beat Joliestar in the Expressway Stakes over the Everest course earlier this year, the form out of her first-up win has stood up around Angel Capital and she was game as usual in the Manikato running third. She has the outside barrier but that’s not as much of a disadvantage at it might be to others as she tends to produce her best when outside horses. She’ll definitely get that chance. She’s another whose price is a little over the top for the ability and record she has. She’ll run well, she always does.

12. Tempted (Ciaron Maher): The only three-year-old in the race and looking to be the first filly to climb Everest. Her two-year-old form was outstanding and she was a bit stiff not to win both the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper and her win in the Percy Sykes over this course was arrogant. The form out of that race has proven strong this spring too. Smashed them in the Run To The Rose first-up and was far from disgraced when Beiwacht turned the tables on her in the Golden Rose. Drop to 1200m and 51kg are in her favour and gate one is perfect for her to land midfield without having to work. She’s very smart and she will measure up here to some degree, she won’t be disgraced and it’s entirely possible she can be in the finish.

SPEED MAP: We all think we know the first three in the run here and if it’s not Mazu finding the fence first then it’ll be a surprise. Ka Ying Rising will be forward and Overpass is the other natural on pacer. He’ll go forward too and it’ll depend on how he jumps as to whether he can cross the Hong Kong visitor. What happens next is anyone’s guess. Tempted from the inside can be handy and War Machine has the draw to be there too. Decisions from Briasa and Jimmysstar can potentially change the make up, imagine Briasa has to try his luck to go forward and try to slot in. Jimmy might find his back. Should be generously run.

SELECTIONS:
4 JIMMYSSTAR
10 Lady Shenandoah
1 Ka Ying Rising
9 Joliestar

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s TAB Everest meeting at Randwick