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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 2 $2 million The Ingham (1600m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. Gringotts (Ciaron Maher): Forget the outside barrier and the big weight, the only worry heading into this race is history repeating and he’s at the end of his preparation. He arrived at the Ingham fifth-up having won the Big Dance and The Gong and that’s the scenario again. Sort of. There was a gap of almost two months between that first and second-up run so he may well be on fresher legs and he’ll need to be. While barrier 20 and 61kg are issues he’s already a proven weight carrier and he has tactical speed so there’s a chance he can find a spot from the gate. He had 60.5kg last year and has gone up eight points or 4kg since – he should have 64.5kg! Has to be the horse to beat.

Gringotts (Pic: Bradley Photos)

2. Duke De Sessa (Ciaron Maher): You’d have to say he ran a very nice race first-up in The Gong having not raced since the Sydney Cup in April. Beaten under three lengths and has a 1.5kg turnaround in the weights. But staying at the mile, especially if the track remains on the better side (which it likely will), could make this race a bit sharp for him. Promises to get a nice enough run from the barrier but probably wait until he gets to 2000m.

3. Estadio Mestalla (Joe Pride): Nothing short of flying this preparation and if he was to win this race nobody would begrudge him of it. He was huge off a wide gate in the Hunter and ran right up to it in The Gong where he got within half a length of Gringotts. He did have his chance there and doesn’t get any weight relief against that horse but he does have a barrier advantage this time around. It’d be a surprise if he’s not right there at the finish.

4. Robusto (Bjorn Baker): Last year’s winner attempting to be the first in the race’s history to win back-to-back and you’d have to give him some chance. Carried the same weight when winning in 2024 and has been consistent with big weights in the 12 months since then including a win under 60kg in the Winter Challenge. He was okay in the Festival second-up from a two month break and he’s drawn to have his chance. He’ll be good each-way odds but not without claims.

5. Victoria Road (Ciaron Maher): He’s not had the best of fortune since arriving a couple of years ago with a bit of a rap on him. Can’t treat him as the same horse that won a Group 1 as a two-year-old or even the Group 2 mile placing before coming to Australia. He’s shown little to nothing in his two runs this time in and you’d want to see signs of him finding some form before considering.

6. Darnation (Ciaron Maher): Another import who brings some solid international form down under and it’s hard to get a line on her from her local debut in The Hunter where she drew out, went back and stayed there. Clearly the 1300m was too sharp for her on that track which was playing a bit quick late in the day. Mile is a plus, wide barrier a minus but she did improve with a run when overseas. If she’s here then look for some improvement but can’t recommend until we see it.

7. Arctic Glamour (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): The stable will be doing anti-rain dances for this mare who has come roaring back to her best form on dry ground in two runs back. Surprised in the Hot Danish first-up but backed it right up when charging late to get close in the Festival Stakes behind Yorkshire who is one of the fancies for this race. She ran fifth in the Epsom last year so not too concerned about a mile for her, despite her stats saying none for five, and if it stays dry she’s an each-way chance.

8. Territory Express (Paul Niceforo): Have we lost him? There were positive signs in his placing at Hawkesbury in early November as he did just about everything right and found the line but he was up to his old tricks in The Gong and didn’t feature. Won the Provincial-Midway Championships at this track and if he could find that sort of form then he’d be some chance but at present he’s a little too unreliable.

9. Democracy Manifest (Chris Waller): We’re looking at around 636 days since his last win, where he beat Territory Express in an Ajax, and well over a year since his last placing so that makes putting up a case for him difficult. We know he can produce a big finish on his day. Failed to beat one home in The Gong, perhaps some forgiveness on the heavy, but he’s deep in take on trust country.

10. Matusalem (Chris Waller): If there’s a leftfield upset or something that runs into a place at big odds he’s not the worst chance to do that. Put in a huge run first-up in the Bill Ritchie but wasn’t quite as effective at his next run. He’s run a super race in the Big Dance, beaten 2-1/2 by Gringotts and if he can run up to that then a place isn’t out of the question. Wants it to stay on the dry side and some tempo would help his cause.

11. Rise At Dawn (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): He’s a bit of a tricky one. Genuine on pacer but at the moment is lacking that punch to put a race away. He’s there and fights but is finding one or two better of late. Perhaps he didn’t quite run out the 1800m in the Five Diamonds last start but the Randwick mile is considered akin to a 2000m race, especially in these big fields, so that poses a question mark. He’ll put himself right there in or near the lead and he does fight on so he’s probably more a place chance than a winning one.

12. Loch Eagle (Kris Lees): Won this race two years ago but does seem to reserve his best now for the wetter tracks. So it was no surprise to see him hitting the line pretty well at the finish of The Gong where he ran fifth on a heavy track. So he’s very much on weather watch. If we somehow find ourselves well into the soft range he’s not the worst here, if it’s dry or close to it he might well be up against it.

13. Yorkshire (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): He’s started favourite at his last five starts and is yet to go around longer than $4.60 in his career. That may not change the way the market has tracked this week. Cardiac arrhythmia, as it’s been well documented, felled him first-up in The Hunter but he shrugged that off to win the Festival Stakes. Don’t think he’ll be leading which does suit him better on what we’ve seen and he’s one of the real up and coming types who can step up with a light weight on his back. Very good chance.

14. Tavi Time (Kris Lees): He’s yet to run a place this preparation but you couldn’t say he’s racing badly. Didn’t have the greatest of luck in the Big Dance and should have finished a bit closer while he was okay in The Gong after being a shade slow so finishing midfield isn’t a knock. Perhaps this level is just a touch above him but he has the talent to be competitive if he can get some favours in the run. Keep an eye on him, he won the Summer Cup last year after racing at this meeting.

15. Steparty (Paul Preusker): Gallant in defeat when runner-up in this race last year coming off a solid effort in The Gong. Is he going as well in 2025? Form has been a little on the mixed side, can forgive the run in the Cantala on testing ground, and he did look to have his chance in the Cranbourne Cup behind Sabaj. He drops 1.5kg on last year and draws ideally so they are boosts to his chances. If he finds his best form, like his Group 1 placing back in February, then he could show up.

Tavi Time (Pic: Bradley Photos)

16. Amor Victorious (Bjorn Baker): Far from disgraced first-up in a strong race but was safely held after leading early in The Gong where he was given a chance at each-way odds. A definite plus for him would be a firmer track so if there’s not a lot of rain around he’ll be suited. Likely to bounce and look to lead from an inside gate, which is when he’s proven most effective. He will run better than last time but whether that’s good enough remains to be seen.

17. Melody Again (Scott Singleton): Backmarker who has really stepped up this year since her Group 3 win at Scone back in May. She found The Kosciuszko too short but has been typically strong late in her two subsequent runs. That closing third in the Festival has to put her in the discussions for a place as it’ll take a big effort to round them up if she finds herself as far back as she tends to do. One of a few you could throw into the trifectas at odds.

18. Port Lockroy (SCRATCHED).

19. You Wahng (Kris Lees): Queensland Oaks winner fitter for one run back and it wasn’t a bad return either in the Festival where she hit the line okay late. Unfortunately the draw is going to make things interesting for her. Do they light her up to get into the first half or take the medicine and go back looking to hit the line again. With races like the Summer Cup coming up later in the month she’d be worth monitoring.

20. Sabaj (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): Clearly the X-factor horse of the race. Gave a glimpse of his talent with a slashing effort in the Silver Eagle first-up, where you could argue he should have been placed, and since then has been nothing short of dominant winning at Flemington and then the Cranbourne Cup where he was back and wide both times. He’ll be wide again from the gate and it’ll be interesting to see whether he can land somewhere tactical as opposed to going right back, which would make things tougher. Looks good enough to be a player with a bit of luck.

21. Persian Spirit (SCRATCHED).

22. Enxuto (Robbie Griffiths): If Sabaj is considered one of the leading chances then this gelding shouldn’t be left out of the conversation based on their clash in the Cranbourne Cup. The winner did have his measure after a tough run but he’s still run well and has a big barrier advantage. He’s been a horse that’s gone about his business somewhat unnoticed, finishing around the mark without winning and he could find himself in the placings.

23E. Snitzanova (Ciaron Maher): A year ago she won the Spring Stakes at Newcastle and Sandown Guineas over the mile but she’s not been the same horse in three runs since. Didn’t find her way into the race at all when resuming at Canberra and while drawn nicely enough she needs to turn back the clock a bit to be competitive.

24E. Kintyre (Gary Portelli): Going well in lesser company and overcame a wide run to score a well deserved win at Canberra a few weeks ago. He’s an honest horse, you could see him finishing somewhere between sixth and tenth without surprising you at all but he would need a big career peak to win.

SPEED MAP: We have a couple of noted front-running types drawn soft in Rise At Dawn and Amor Victorious and they could well provide a bit of early spice. All eyes will be on what Nash does on Gringotts from the outside barrier while Yorkshire and Estadio Mestalla will put themselves in the first half dozen or so from middle gates. Steparty is another who could punch up. Sabaj may have to go back but if he can press on has the top weight to his outside to guide him.

SELECTIONS:
1 GRINGOTTS
13 Yorkshire
3 Estadio Mestalla
20 Sabaj

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s meeting at Randwick