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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 2 $1 million Newcastle Herald Hunter (1300m) at Newcastle on Saturday.

1. Iowna Merc (Bjorn Baker): Generally a consistent sprinter-miler and you have to suspect he found his level a little earlier this year as his consistency has dropped off a little. He was game second-up in the Sydney Stakes, where he had the right run and was just touched out by Rothfire. Last time out was the complete opposite, he was never in the race in the Russell Balding, run in sticky ground, and failed to beat one home. He’ll get his preferred ground this time, the draw does hurt him a little but it comes down to what luck he gets in the early stages to find a spot where he can be effective.

2. Robusto (Bjorn Baker): He’s one horse that looks over the odds. It’s easy to see those two 7s against his name in the form guide but they were in weight-for-age company taking on the Via Sistinas, Sir Delius’, Lindermanns and Alieanas of this world. He’s not run badly. Back to this sort of level he was racing in good form in the winter with big weights, and more importantly from that gate he will land in a great spot just behind the speed. He’s won four times at 1300m and can’t be underestimated.

Coal Crusher (Pic: Bradley Photos).

3. Coal Crusher (Joe Pride): Marvel who won this race two years ago and was third last year, he also won at this meeting three years ago. You know what you’re getting with him, he’ll be right on the speed from that favourable alley and more than likely finds the front. They couldn’t catch him under those circumstances in 2023. Recent form is solid, he led them up in the Sydney Stakes and was reeled in but his run in the Russell Balding, wide on speed, when fourth behind Jimmysstar shows he’s on target. No surprise to see him in front at the 200m and trying to defy the chasers.

4. Estadio Mestalla (Joe Pride): When he finds his form he generally holds on to it for a while so it’s encouraging to see him winning at 1100m first-up. He had 63kg and the outside barrier and was able to arrive in time so it says he’s back in grand order. He doesn’t have 63kg this time but he does have that outside gate again so he’ll need plenty of luck and a good ride, though it’s not beyond him. He’s being set to back up in The Gong next week so keep a close eye on what he does late given his second-up form isn’t quite as strong as when fresh.

5. Airman (Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes): Inconsistent sprinter who is to be taken on trust. He ran well in the Alan Brown two starts ago when drawing soft then didn’t have any favours in the Russell Balding but also didn’t show a whole lot of resolve late. Naturally this is easier and he’s drawn a gate where he might be able to land handy enough to the speed. Blinkers go on too. Wouldn’t be a total shock if he bobbed up somewhere but he’s hard to be confident about.

6. Golden Mile (Joe Pride): Group 1 class on his day but he’s another who can be in and out. He did hit form third-up last time in with placings in the Victory Stakes and Kingsford-Smith Cup in Brisbane and he’s now at his third run for the Pride stable. And we always pay attention when he puts the blinkers on any of his horses, especially the geldings. He has the gate to be handy enough, he is definitely good enough at his best but you’ve got to have the fingers crossed until he does show that form again.

7. Ostraka (Annabel & Rob Archibald): It’s now a year since he put those three excellent wins together including the Silver Eagle but his form has been on the mixed side since then with two placings from 10 subsequent starts. He started the prep with a promising third in the Concorde, didn’t quite back it up in the Shorts and thought he had his chance when midfield in the Sydney Stakes off a freshen. He’s another who is more than capable of putting himself in the finish of a race like this.

8. Brudenell (Kris Lees): Local whose barrier gives him some chance of sneaking into a placing. Run off his feet in record time when coming off a freshen second-up then he was handy enough behind Estadio Mestalla at Randwick. He’s only been to the 1300m on one occasion and he held his ground in third in the Luskin Star at Scone earlier this year. It’s weird in 32 starts he’s never raced on his home track! If he gets a cheap run on the fence he could surprise a bit.

9. Darnation (Ciaron Maher): Imported mare who was scratched from the Hot Danish last week and has come up with a wide gate for her local debut. Hard to line up her form which appears as though it will translate into her being a miler in Australia and she has placed up to 2011m in Europe. Would like to see what she does first against what doesn’t look an ideal set up.

10. Cifrado (Rex Lipp): Queenslander whose last win came on a heavy track in December last year. He has run some handy races against good opposition and on top of the ground, including chasing home Transatlantic and Robusto and a close second behind Hidden Wealth. That was last summer, not sure if he’s racing in the same sort of form at the moment though he was beaten in a blanket finish in a small field at Doomben third-up. Does appear up against it on face value.

11. Accredited (Joe Pride): Biggest test to date for a gelding that has build a strong record and has a particular liking for good ground. He looked all over a winner first-up at Randwick only to be ambushed on the line by his stablemate. Gets a 5kg drop in the weights and draws ideally for his style of racing. Rarely runs a bad race and wouldn’t expect that to change here where he should have every chance to measure up.

12. Konasana (Chris Waller): Well travelled mare who won a Group 2 in New Zealand back in January and was close up in a couple of Group 1s there too. Resuming since tackling the Tatt’s Tiara in the winter and she’s had a couple of trials to get her ready. She’s generally taken a run to hit her straps but she’ll have the chance to make a lie of that with a soft draw and light weight. Each-way chance but expecting her to improve on it.

13. Phearson (Brad Widdup): Perenially unlucky when it comes to the barrier draw and he’s faced with a task again first-up. He’s trialling as well as usual and he’s been known to run some plucky races despite adverse draws. He’s been placed once in 16 starts since his last win, which was in March 2024, and he’s going to need plenty of luck to put himself in the finish.

14. Yorkshire (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): Arguably the most exciting runner in the race and he brings with him an imposing record of six wins from eight starts. He was dominant in his three wins before his break back in February and he’s been given good grounding with a couple of trials, the latest of those was particularly eye-catching. He does have a profile of racing near the speed so where he gets to from the barrier will be interesting and possible dictated to by the pattern of the day as there looks to be good speed. No doubt he could pick up where he left off.

Clear Thinking (Pic: Bradley Photos).

15. Infancy (Kris Lees): She’s a handy mare on her day and generally needs things to pan out for her to win races at this level. She produced a big finish to win at Randwick back in April and she ran a big race from an impossible position in the Tatt’s Tiara in the winter. Her two runs back have been even, she will need the expected speed to be on for her to have the chance to hit the line down the outside.

16. Clear Thinking (Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich): Plenty of interest in how The Kosciuszko winner measures up to this sort of field after her dominant win at Randwick first-up. She gave away a start and had plenty up the sleeve at the end of the $2 million country feature. All five of her wins have been against country opposition, her two defeats have come in Group 3 mares company where she’s run well in both including a second in the Triscay in February. Don’t think there’s any doubt she can be competitive in a race like this and if they are running on she should be most effective.

17E. Felix Majestic (Gary Nickson): Noted speedster who led and gave a big sight in this race last year when run down late by Briasa. His form in seven runs since then has been patchy but he does bob up when he’s allowed to get some control and get rolling. Last year’s Bill Ritchie is a good example. Was back to 1100m last time and couldn’t get near the lead so forgive that. He can have an impact on the outcome of this race if he does gain a start as he’ll add to the speed up front.

18E. Romeo’s Choice (Richard Litt): He started off the preparation with a couple of nice wins but hasn’t been able to reproduce it as the races got harder. He wasn’t beaten far by Estadio Mestalla last start and while he will put in, his beaten margins say he is a trier, this looks a bit beyond him.

SPEED MAP: We all expect Coal Crusher to be first to the fence in front. If Felix Majestic is in the field then it’d be a big shock if he’s not looking to be right with him. The three drawn in, Brudenell, Robusto and Accredited , will all likely vie for a spot in that next line of speed. Does Golden Mile react to the blinkers and look to be handy? Yorkshire has a first half of the field pattern and he’ll be looking to slot in or find three wide cover.

SELECTIONS:
14 YORKSHIRE
16 Clear Thinking
3 Coal Crusher
2 Robusto

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s meeting at Newcastle