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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth guide to the chances of every runner in Saturday's Group 3 $1 million Illawarra Mercury Gong (1600m) at Kembla Grange.

1. Gringotts (Ciaron Maher): The best way to illustrate how well placed and weighted the defending champ is in this race is by considering that last year he carried 60kg with a 109 rating, on Saturday he has 61kg on a 118 rating. On pure ratings he should have 64.5kg. And in that time he’s won a Group 1 George Ryder and carried 62kg last start to win the Big Dance easily. So he’s thrown in, he’s right at his peak this prep and drawn to be wherever Nash wants in the run. It’s almost impossible to find a negative, but it is horse race and he still has to win it. Of course, he’s the one to beat.

2. Duke De Sessa (Ciaron Maher): His presence is quite interesting in this race and it’s not beyond him to run a cheeky race. He did win at 1600m first-up in the autumn, albeit off a three month break, carrying 60kg after getting a soft run from an inside gate. It is a longer break since his last run in the Sydney Cup but he’s down to 58.5kg under handicap conditions and has a similar sort of draw. Caulfield Cup winner last year and chased Dubai Honour home in the Tancred in April. Classy staying type and just the longer break between runs suggests he’ll likely need this.

Estadio Mestalla (Pic: Bradley Photos).

3. Estadio Mestalla (Joe Pride): It’d be easy to look at his barrier and think it could stop him from giving the race a shake but it really doesn’t. He’s one of those horses that can be ridden either forward or back and connections have the luxury of being able to see seven races to assess the track before deciding how to approach it. You don’t win first-up under 63kg at 1100m if you’re not low flying and he really backed it up when charging home late in The Hunter last week from an impossible position. Doubt they’ll concede to the barrier and give him an impossible task this time, he excels on the back up and he won the consolation race last year in a faster time than The Gong. He’s dangerous.

4. New Endeavour (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): He could be the dark horse of this race, if there’s an upset. Settled back under 60kg when resuming at the mile at Flemington and wasn’t able to get into race but still made some late ground. He’ll be a lot fitter for it and the crucial pluses for him are the sharp weight drop and a turnaround in his barrier fortunes after drawing the outside first-up. He’ll be in a better position to race more to his usual pattern of being in the first half dozen, a little rain wouldn’t hurt his chances either. Each-way hopes.

5. Victoria Road (Ciaron Maher): It’s hard to know what to expect from this well performed import at his second run for the campaign after he didn’t do a whole lot at all when resuming at Randwick a month ago. He did have top weight and a wide barrier so it really didn’t give us much of a guide. Better scenario with weight and a middle barrier this time so he may be able to run more of a race, but you’d still like to see him do it as all his form is from a lifetime ago.

6. Waterford (Chris Waller): Fourth in this race last year and fifth in 2023 and it would be no shock if he filled a position like that once again. Generally an honest type, he has put in the occasional howler. He disappointed in the Alan Brown two runs back, having run third in the race a year before, and comes here out of the Russell Balding where he was never going to be a chance. But that race was likely to have him on the right foot to come into this. If he gets the right sort of run you can see him hitting the line, hard to be confident he could win.

7. Territory Express (Paul Niceforo): A lot has happened in the 12 months since he gave away six or seven lengths head start in this race when considered a good chance at $7 in the market. He didn’t do a whole lot in his first two runs this spring but a couple of trials and a freshen saw him return to something like his best form in the Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury. He was still a little slow and raced on the inside which was considered a bit inferior but he kept coming to take third. You have to be able to trust him to at least break with them. If he does that then he has the ability to be competitive.

8. Loch Eagle (Kris Lees): He’s been to this race twice for a second in 2023 but was safely held last year as a $61 chance. What he needs is a wet track at this level, when he gets one he’s more than capable of putting himself in the finish as he did two years ago. Wasn’t the best away first-up in the Little Dance but didn’t do anything at all failing to beat one home. His past two wins have been on a soft 7 and a heavy 8 and he needs that or he’s a 100/1 shot here.

9. Steparty (SCRATCHED).

10. Detonator Jack (SCRATCHED).

11. Port Lockroy (Annabel & Rob Archibald): Group 1 winner this time last year in the Railway Stakes in Perth but the wheels have fallen off completely with a seventh his best finishing effort in nine subsequent starts. It’s a real head scratcher because going into that Group 1 win he’d run well in a Golden Eagle and was in very good form. Barrier draws haven’t helped him in his last couple but they are the least of his worries as he needs to recapture his form.

12. Sandpaper (Bjorn Baker): He’s done quite a good job since joining the Baker team with three wins from 10 starts including a Newcastle Stakes at Group 3. Showed early speed in the Sydney Stakes first-up but couldn’t keep up when the sprint went on then up to 1500m at Hawkesbury he was able to lead and boxed on a lot better. So he’s getting fitter, he has a second to Yorkshire over the mile from earlier this year and he should put himself in the firing line early. With a 5.5kg drop in weight he has the chance to lift.

13. Tavi Time (Kris Lees): Nine wins from 24 starts tells you he’s more than a capable type but he has developed a negative racing pattern of late and barriers can’t really be blamed for that. He was solid when he got clear in the Alan Brown running into fifth then got way too far back in the Big Dance but was again hitting the line with purpose. He has a wide gate this time and while he meets Gringotts a bit better at the weights it’s not a significant amount and he’ll likely give the favourite a start. However, if things pan out for him he can pose a threat.

14. Amor Victorious (Bjorn Baker): Set a decent task from a class perspective when resuming in the Russell Balding after a year off the scene and it wasn’t a shock to see him weaken late after racing on speed. For a $201 chance he’s run okay. He’ll like the step up in distance now and the class drop and barrier one will see him look to be leading you’d imagine. He was given a nice sound out in winning a recent trial by a big space. Has to be fitter, whether he’s a run or two away is probably likely but expect him to run better than he did fresh.

Tavi Time (Pic: Bradley Photos)

15. Democracy Manifest (Chris Waller): Something of a cult galloper but he hasn’t won for over 600m nor been placed for 13 months so he’s becoming enigmatic. What does he need to happen for him to have a chance here? He’s drawn okay though tends to find himself nearer last than first in his races. Track conditions don’t seem to matter but these days perhaps a bit of give might be handy. Hard to find too many pluses and he’ll need to jump out of the ground.

16. Palmetto (John Sargent): Didn’t contest this race last year but ran seventh in 2023. Last win was the Canberra Cup back in March. He’s been even without getting onto the podium in his last couple, having his chance from near the speed and only whacking away. He will press forward to some degree and finally gets back down in the weights with the limit here. Could see him finishing in the fourth to eighth region on the line.

17. Regal Azmon (Phillip Stokes): Won six races at the mile and we can tie his form in with a couple of his opponents. Ran fourth behind New Endeavour at 1800m in May and finished ahead of that horse last start in the Chester Manifold over the mile. Tends to get back in the field and that looks likely from his barrier. Would be inclined to say it’d be a surprise if he wins but given the case for New Endeavour he’s a place chance.

18. Ducasse (Michael Freedman): He’s a consistent enough gelding and perhaps the 1800m was just a bit beyond him last time out in the Five Diamonds where he looked to have his chance in the run. He did run fifth so it wasn’t a flop. Nice effort in the Big Dance Wild Card under 58.5kg so the big drop in weight on that is a boost for him. One of those down in the weights that could bob up in the finish without surprising.

19E. Shadizi (Chris Waller): Has been a little on the disappointing side in two runs since a luckless effort at Flemington second-up. Had his chance in the Five Diamonds Prelude and held his ground then you could say the same in the Five Diamonds. He hasn’t been beaten far but at the same time hasn’t been attacking the line as you’d like to see. He does draw well once again so will have the chance to show up.

20E. Touristic (Peter Snowden): First-up at the mile and if you listen to the trainer he’s going particularly well at home. His form says he’ll need a run or two to hit his straps and 2000m is much more to his liking. His chance, if he gets a start, is if there’s rain around as he does appreciate a bit of give in the surface.

SPEED MAP: Bjorn Baker looks to have a major say in the speed with Amor Victorious drawn the inside and Sandpaper drawn out in the middle both noted on pacers. Gringotts lands wherever he likes from between them. Palmetto and New Endeavour tend to like being handy in their races. Duke De Sessa does have some speed when he gets out over further but can hold a position. Estadio Mestalla has a decision to make as he can be effective forward or back.

SELECTIONS:
1 GRINGOTTS
3 Estadio Mestalla
7 Territory Express
4 New Endeavour

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s meeting at Kembla Grange